We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Thursday, March 26. 2020
The panic, the hysteria, the mob mentality that has swept over the country is an amazing and disheartening thing to witness.
Kimball is a smart guy. What's your view? You are smart too.
Display comments as (Linear | Threaded)
re The panic, the hysteria, the mob mentality that has swept over the country is an amazing and disheartening thing to witness.
Trump’s Coronavirus Response Is Foiling His Enemies - American Greatness
As testing increases, the numbers improve. Only about 10 percent of people tested have the virus, and of those only 1.2 percent of people have died from it, . . . Obviously, as mass testing goes forward the incidence will decline, and as measures to protect the immune-challenged are implemented and strengthened, the percentage of fatalities among those who do contract the virus will also decline. . . .
A $6 Trillion Relief Package
. . . . A package of $6 trillion of direct and indirect assistance and assured liquidity has been proposed.
Six trillion. Suddenly, the thought of burying our children and grandchildren in an Everest of debt is not a problem. The pandemic will end but the debt will remain.
It remains to be seen what this scale of spending does to/for the economy.
What happens when this happens next year or the year after? How many trillions can we spend fighting pandemics and still have a viable currency when it is all over?
New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity
The people who still think this is the same as the flu are brain dead. The writer of this article is a classic idiot. We are now being warned our state may have to be in lockdown for four months. Oh, and the deaths are now over 1,000 and climbing rapidly. I was in a Zoom video meeting last night with my church men's small group, there are 2 hospital doctors in it. They are just shaking their heads as to how bad this may get and how we are going to deal with it. There's lack of masks, PPE, ventilators, if it takes off it is a nightmare situation.
It is because of people believing articles like this that the virus continues to spread, and people are dying as a result. Maggie's Farm, you should take this down, it is dangerous misinformation.
I could not disagree more strongly. I think it must be fun to say that other people are panicking. A lot of folks here at Maggie's seem to be enjoying it. So go volunteer at these supposedly safe places if you think it's no problem. Pony up.
Kimball' lowball numbers are already vanishing. There are already a thousand dead before his ink was dry. People actually are concerned about the flu every year, which is why you will be told a hundred times to get vaccinated. Yet even then, it is contained and predictable. C19 isn't contained and it is not yet predictable. The low numbers (which rise daily and sharply) are partly because of the "panicked" responses we have already instituted keeping deaths and spread of the illness down.
I can understand people judiciously saying we are not weighing the harm to the economy adequately. I can understand people not entirely believing the government, or politicised health agencies like the CDC. But why people would think that Johns Hopkins and Mass General are deeply ignorant and have some agenda for wanting to fool us is not well-thought out. Medical professionals with good knowledge and information are nervous about going to work.
I generally like Kimball, but this is just irresponsible. It's not the f***ing flu. Only people who live in nice places where their dangers are mitigated by others can engage in this sort of armchair criticism.
Amen and amen.
Argue about confirmed cases vs actual cases (and what that says about the fatality rate) all you want, but the growth rate of confirmed cases in the US is consistently in the neighborhood of 33% per day. So far, there is no sign of that growth rate slowing down. And no sense of whether any of the efforts to curb it are even making a dent.
If the growth rate doesn't slow down, the virus could be half as lethal as the flu and still kill an enormous number of Americans.
Maybe Roger Kimball's innermost secret desire is to be a jackass. If so, mocking people's efforts to slow the spread of this disease is a guaranteed gold medal in jackassery.
Certainly creating more fear than seasonal flu.
Death rates likely not comparable, though.
Time will tell.
Agree with Jim and AVI totally. Panic is not helpful, but neither is downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic. Contagion and mob mentality, unfortunatley, go hand in hand, are in fact versions of one another. The actual virus, SARS-CoV19, is real and so is the threat of mob mentality. Both will be devastating and will exacerbate one another. This is the game changer, like it or not, we have been talking about with terms like 'black swan', etc.
We are now being warned our state could continue to be under statewide lockdown and shelter-in-place emergency orders for up to 5 months.
“The epidemiologists and others who are following what’s happening all over the world see this as a problem that we’re going to be living with for at least four or five months before we expect much relief,” state Department of Health Director Bruce Anderson told the state Senate Special Committee on COVID-19 Wednesday.
“It’s not as the president suggested; that it’s going to end on Easter. It will be a lot longer than that, and the supplies that are available are certainly not gonna carry us through that extended period of time,” Anderson said. “We haven’t seen the main wave hit us yet. What we’re seeing are just cases that are imported cases — mostly people who traveled or have come into contact with others.”
U.S. 1150 deceased as of a few minutes ago - a +16% change so far today.
THAT's the concerning part - that the rate of new infections and deaths may continue to increase, at an increasing rate.
Foolish article by a foolish man...I get it. He want's to seem all adult and cool. Watch me stand calm and cool in the midst of this inferno...dummy.
Of KNOWN active cases worldwide, 95% are mild. In the US, there are 239 known cases per one million population. Given that "experts" claim that most cases are so mild that the person didn't even know they had it.
So we have a situation where we have a pretty good handle on the number of deaths and which populations are most at risk (> 70 years old and/or with other medical complications) but only know the minimum of total cases - maybe a minute minimum.
Since we don't know the denominator, we really can't compare it to the flu, but it seems to me that if you are not in a high risk group, you have very little to worry about. Of course, one of the things to worry about is giving it to a loved one who is in a high risk category.
The panic, the hysteria, the mob mentality that has swept over ...
... the media is not surprising. What is surprising is the extent to which the businesses and residents of my town are responding. They're proving to be far more resilient and resourceful, at least for the most part, than most of the professional talkers in the media and politics would ever have given them credit for. Even the millennials are stepping up without being told, and their initiative and creativity is impressive.
I'm hoping my neighbours take this to heart and remember it for a long time. It's doing wonders for their self-confidence and self-respect. To the extent that continues, they become less vulnerable to manipulation. Perhaps this is the end of the era of Politician-as-Expert, or at least the beginning of the end. We'd all be better for it.
The empty heads on-screen don't have the slightest idea of how things are done in the real world. You mention 'logistics' to them, they think 'log-rolling' and go on. They've got no idea how people are getting around things - how people are helping each other. They may, if there's time to fill, put out a nice little human interest story. Their main focus, however, is to show just how bad things are... but not so bad we turn them off and leave them off.
Because a sad thing to remember is that they NEED bad news to keep the lights on. People will tune in to see the latest BAD news, they'll click to see the latest stories about how screwed they are, and they'll ALWAYS present things as absolutely dire.
Good news? People don't obsessively and repeatedly tune in for that. They'll click a good story one time, maybe share it - but they won't repeatedly check it out.
They know human nature, and they feed it what it wants to see.
It's three minutes into the basketball game and the other team is up by 5 points. Might as well go home, game over.
That is what it is like to call the numbers this early in the game. NY is probably a week to 5 days away from a peak, not the end but the peak. LA is probably a few days behind, ditto for New Orleans. Wait for Florida. Each major city will go through this. Each country in their turn. By the end there could be millions of deaths worldwide. (There may already be China is desperately hiding something.) No way to know the total in the U.S. To be honest it looks like we are doing most everything right and may avoid the worst case but that could still be 100,000 deaths before this is over. IMHO the only thing that can reverse this inevitability is some kind of medical cure or prevention. 18 months from now everyone will be much more somber about covid19 than they are today. This isn't over, we are going to have our "Italy" moment; maybe NY, maybe LA or NO...
U.S. deaths now at 1186 - that's +36 in the couple of hours since my earlier comment.
I've been using this site. It's updated every few minutes with numbers from the CDC, WHO, and one other.
So go volunteer at these supposedly safe places if you think it's no problem. Pony up."
Have been. So far, Harris county is at 2. Out of 6+ million.
Thank you. I have son in Spring who works downtown and Houston is likely to get hit hard. Any containment is praiseworthy.
Why is Houston going to get hit? 1st reported case was back on Feb 13...
Roger Kimball is generally a good guy, but he is too impressed with what he knows, and insufficiently humble about what he doesn't know. He has no direct knowledge or connection with critical health care, if he did he would not be treating this virus situation with such contempt.
Health care professionals are a large part of my social circle, through family and friends with long careers at high skill levels. None of them are the least bit optimistic about this virus. They understand exponential growth intuitively, and understand the many constraints that interfere with patients' desires to be made healthy again.
This is just starting, will roar through the healthcare system and overwhelm with sheer numbers, as well as a wide variety of outcomes, different patients will be affected differently. There is some similarity to influenza, but many differences as well We will lose a significant portion of the healthcare providers to disability or death, making the problems even more overwhelming.
People like Mr Kimball need to recognize that others in our society do not have their advantages, and may be at far greater risk. Editors and literary critics have a sheltered life.
This is the greatest raid of the US Treasury in history, and it's just beginning. Six trillion dollars to date, and there will be another multi-trillion dollar stimulus/bailout package coming. After that there will be a pension bailout that will be many trillions more.
The US will be testing Japanese levels of debt when this is finished. It's not at all clear that the dollar will survive as the global reserve currency, nor that it deserves to keep that status.
Fortunately, Kimball and the rest of you have more first hand experience of the illness than this guy does:
Kimball is bullshitting you. Bullshitting himself too, I’m sure. That’s no excuse. At a time like this, people with an audience should have the decency not to spout glib nonsense without doing their homework. Or maybe he’s been intubated and enjoyed the experience.
“B... b... but the ecooonomy!”
I like the economy, too. Show me where it says in the Bible, the Constitution, or the Standard Model of particle physics that facts that are inconvenient for the economy can’t be true.
Watching Tucker reporting on NYC. I want to bring your attention to a fact. The ratio of the population that is over 65 in NY is 11-12%. Compare that to Italy at 23%. What gives?
On Chicagoboyz.net, the debate over whether covid is "just the flu" or 1918 redux rages on. Italy going down changed everything. We all want to know if Italy is coming to a neighborhood near us. Ive heard all the explanations and they dont add up except for the possibility that after Italian health delivery was overrun, many people were left untreated. It sure would be great to have the data to compare year over year excess deaths. In the meantime, we see Italians running around with their hair on fire and this should tell you this year has not been a normal but bad flu year.
Here in King County (Seattle) Washington State, (where it all started in this country): 31,912 tested 93% negative, 2,580 (7%) positive. King County population is 2.23 million 13th largest state
Total: WA cases 2,590 --132 deaths WA population 7,797,095 22 counties have no deaths.
The restrictions came too late for the poor residents of the Life Care Center in Kirkland.
Panic is stupid. Turn off the TV, do your homework, and take appropriate action, if any is warranted in your particular circumstances. Also, turn off the TV. Did I say turn off the TV?
I keep thinking about the two scientists that sent their study to JAMA for publication and had it refused and returned in minutes. The study claimed millions of white people in America were dying years before their time due to opioid addiction. We can shut down the nation over a virus but year after year we have witnessed tens of thousands of mostly white people dying from opioids that are brought in from China using the USPS. More people have died from drug overdoses in the last 7 years than died in the Civil War. White people in America have a falling life expectancy, something unheard of in any developed country with the exception of Russia in the years after the fall of the Soviet Union. We know the names of the people and the companies in China flooding our country with poison. We control the USPS, yet we are impotent. Some lives matter more than others.
This is a artifact of statistics. The U.S. is mostly white people so it isn't really meaningful that mostly white people die from taking illegal drugs. Just as it isn't meaningful that in the inner city mostly minorities die from (and sell) illegal drugs. IMHO illegal drug use and the terrible price people pay for using them is a national disgrace. We could do a lot more, perhaps be more like Singapore. If you get caught selling/transporting drugs you get the death penalty within a few days no long series of legal tricks to avoid it. But as long as we accept it than it will continue.
My favorite 'fix' is to allow parents the right to shoot anyone who gives or sells drugs to their children. No charges, no trial no jury just simple self defense of your family.