Maggie's Farm

We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.

Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page

Much Sorry with Delays
Birth, Death and All That Stuff in Between
How to Honor Labor Day, Every Day
My Yom Kippur Miracle (Repost from 2010)
Good intro to fly casting
Peach update, with pie
NYC update
Easy for you to say: To the elites on mass immigration
For NYC on 9/11, Sailors' Snug Harbor
Pickled Peaches
Water Shoes
Labor Costs in U.S.
Your "identity"
Good news about The Great Courses
Uses of Hot Pepper Jelly/Sauce, Chutneys, and Jams
A Saturday Drive to Litchfield County, CT
How to Pick a Kayak
Civilized: Fruit forks and knives
Loads of kayaking on Cape Cod
Psychology Experiments' Questionable Results

Categories


All categories

Quicksearch

Links

Blog Administration

Open login screen

RSS Readers

Add to Google

Subscribe with Bloglines

Thursday, March 12. 2020

Panic does nobody any good

From Most Important Coronavirus Question: Will I Get Sick And Die?, this is Dr. Fauci:



 “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." 


Posted by The News Junkie in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 12:06 | Comments (23) | Trackbacks (0)

Trackbacks
Trackback specific URI for this entry

No Trackbacks

Comments
Display comments as (Linear | Threaded)

re Panic does nobody any good

And yet that's what everyone is doing.
#1 feeblemind on 2020-03-12 12:27 (Reply)
I am not in favor of panic. I also see the value and the necessity of our leaders acting calm and preaching calm. But (you knew there was a but) in the background they should be working their ass off to do some things that are actually useful. Don't get me wrong, I can see some things that are being done but it doesn't feel like there is enough being done. Why are there 300 million test kits available yet? Why hasn't every hospital/city designated a secondary and suitable location to bring Covid-19 patients because you do understand that they aren't going to simply flood the hospital with them? Why, if we restricted travel, were so many planes still landing with so many foreign travelers for weeks? When we discovered weeks ago that most of our medical supplies come from China and China has stopped shipping them why didn't we have a MASSIVE effort to immediately begin manufacturing them here?

I am an American, I love my country, I don't hate my government (even the Dems), but I cannot help but think that the CDC has acted irresponsibly, ineffectively and too slowly. I am sensing a "good job Brownie" moment coming soon live on TV. Why has the government under reacted to this potential crisis. Never mind that it might not be the worst medical crisis, we don't know yet but never mind that after all is said and done this might not be so bad. Our government should be able to ramp up more quickly and more effectively to a potential crisis then it has for this one. Here it is 2 1/2 months after we knew this was coming and we don't even have test kits!!!
#2 GoneWithTheWind on 2020-03-12 12:33 (Reply)
The CDC and the FDA had an equal hand in fumbling the reaction to the virus. The FDA a few years back, and without authority, began regulating those who produce test kits. That delayed the response and then the CDC created a faulty kit. The government administrative state will NEVER be your friend. They employ nannies that love power, safe spaces, and a government check but dislike responsibility. Like Russia, Russia, Russia, and Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, and AGW, AGW, AGW, who will get fired and will any lessons be learned?
#2.1 indyjonesouthere on 2020-03-12 13:10 (Reply)
All excellent questions. As for the CDC, they have a long history of swampiness. Rather than their purported mission, their main focus lately has been on gun control and "social justice". I also note that the person they put in charge of the Coronavirus response - Dr. Nancy Messonnier - is Rod Rosenstein's sister. By delaying the CDC's response, she gave Trump a little payback. Coincidence? I think not.
#2.2 snopercod on 2020-03-12 13:16 (Reply)
"...but in the background, they should be working their ass off to do some things that are actually useful. Don't get me wrong, I can see some things that are being done, but it doesn't feel like there is enough being done.

"Why haven't they done (fill in the blank)?"

I guess you want them to be far enough "in the background" that the rest of us don't see them, but not so far that YOU don't see them. I don't think it works that way.
#2.3 mike m on 2020-03-12 15:47 (Reply)
WTF are you talking about?
#2.3.1 Anon on 2020-03-12 19:00 (Reply)
Good point. We'd all love to think that top men are toiling tirelessly and efficiently, but unobstrusively, to keep us safe without alarming or inconveniencing us personally. In fact, though, we're facing a moderately scary threat. It's not terribly likely to kill each one of us, or even that many people we know, but it's almost sure to reveal some alarming weaknesses in our emergency medical system, as well as force us to confront the ever-present problem of how to allocate scarce medical resources.

Normally we like to think that infinite very-latest-up-to-date resources are available to address a medical crisis in our own lives, but that's scarcely true if too many of us get critically ill all at one time--and "too many" doesn't have to be all that high a percentage of the population to show the weak spots in the system.
#2.3.2 Texan99 on 2020-03-13 07:19 (Reply)
If Dr. Fauci's assumption is made equally to the seasonal flu -- as it should -- his conclusion is inaccurate. But you have to consider if the CDC blows this badly, they will receive a much larger budget next year because, well, you know, they just weren't funded enough (and Trump will be to blame), so they have a vested interest in dropping the ball. That's why conservatives don't trust government, there is no incentive to be competent.
#3 Talnik on 2020-03-12 14:05 (Reply)
It is very hard for the general public to absorb things that are not black-and-white. Humans tend to want a simple answer. "Is C19 dangerous? Yes/no"

It is containable if we take it seriously and follow directions. If we don't, it's dangerous. If we weather this with minimal damage, it will unfortunately encourage knuckleheads to say "See? It was no big deal, just like I sad."
#4 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-03-12 14:21 (Reply)
MIT Biologist says Wuhan virus fear mongering is a fraud to manipulate economies

https://www.independentsentinel.com/mit-biologist-says-wuhan-virus-fear-mongering-is-a-fraud-to-manipulate-economies/
#5 feeblemind on 2020-03-12 18:26 (Reply)
Remember the Swine Flu Panic of 2009? No, You Don’t

QUOTE:
I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel, one of the Fox doctors was on TV explaining this last night. He was not my primary source for it, but he ended up confirming it. Sixty million people were infected.

Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized. And nobody even remembers it. And why? Well, because we had a different president. We had a Democrat president by the name of Barack Obama, and the news then was how wonderfully well Obama was handling it, how expertly well Obama was dealing with it.

There wasn’t any media panic. The Republican Party did not politicize it at all. They made not one single effort that anybody can find or remember to try to make political hay out of it. It was treated as a health issue from top to bottom. Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. I don’t know what the death toll was. The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu.

. . . Nobody’s immune from what’s happening here. I mean, you go back and you look at these swine flu numbers and you ask, “What was different? (chuckles) What was different was we had a Democrat in the White House and so the media didn’t want to be critical of the government.

The media wanted to be promoting him. They wanted to be positive. They wanted to promote the brilliance of Barack Obama, the brilliant management skills, the temperament, the crease in his slacks, the intelligence and all that. Now we’ve got just exact opposite.

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/03/12/remember-the-swine-flu-panic-of-2009-no-you-dont/
#6 feeblemind on 2020-03-12 18:32 (Reply)
Right this minute the dearth rate from covid-19 is 3.7% with only half of those infected being declared recovered. That means they could still die or maybe recover. The data on this virus is still in flux. To try to make claims about how it compares with the flu in this early stage is foolish. With 4962 deaths so far it makes no sense to downplay those deaths or compare them with the flu. Six months down the road might be the right time to Monday morning quarterback this but right now it looks like desperation to claim this crisis is no big deal. It was a hell of a big deal to those 4962 people and their families and it's going to get worse.
#7 Anon on 2020-03-12 18:58 (Reply)
Links please Anon. All the empirical evidence I have seen shows the mortality rate at 1%.
#7.1 feeblemind on 2020-03-12 19:31 (Reply)
Go to Bing. At the bottom click on the news feed labeled coronavirus update. On the right hand side one page down you will find:
133,759 confirmed cases worldwide
4,961 confirmed deaths worldwide
#7.1.1 Anon on 2020-03-12 20:55 (Reply)
It varies from country to country. In Italy the death rate currently is 5%. https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/heres-why-the-coronavirus-death-rate-is-so-high-in-italy/
#7.1.2 Jim on 2020-03-12 23:20 (Reply)
We're not in panic mode, but my spouse and I are in the "danger" demographic and our children would like to see us survive this pandemic (and not just because of the nightmare they would have cleaning out the home we've lived in for over 40 years). So we're minimizing outside contact and have stocked up on supplies so we don't have to go out. Hate to be house-bound - and may well walk around the block a few times once the current nasty weather blows through and the resultant snowfall has melted - but do want to be around to watch the grandbrats for many more years.
#8 Frances on 2020-03-13 00:13 (Reply)
A quick reference data pack as of now to aid visualization - a thumbnail sketch.

informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
#9 Aggie on 2020-03-13 00:28 (Reply)
I’m going with Fauci’s theory until I see a reason not to.

Note the panic in this type of media coverage: “Two NBA players have tested positive for corovavirus”. Okay, so what, now what? They have a contagious flu-like disease that (so far) mainly kills the old and the infirm. Are NBA players 70+ with chronic lung conditions? Well, no. What earthly reason do we have to even care about this, much less worry about it? What evidence is there right now that there is any risk at all to regular people just living their lives? Again, if information changes we should adapt and be open to changing our assumptions.

A contagious disease should not be considered a threat to our health and economy unless a) it is highly fatal or b) we let it rule us with fear and emotion. It seems only (b) is true — because we have let panic-mongering convince us that (a) is true.
#10 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-13 08:21 (Reply)
I disagree. First it IS highly fatal. It is killing 3.7% of those who get it and it is killing 15% of those who are old or have underlying health problems. Second, while a young healthy NBA player may not die from it this disease is highly contagious and if they play games and fill the arena the odds are that another 1000 people become infected and each of those 1000 people infect another 20-30 in a five day period and each of those infect another 20-30 in a five day period etc. How many of those people will die? It isn't JUST the young NBA player at risk.

The problem with making the kind of statements you have is we do not know how many this virus will kill. It could result in most nursing home residents dying in the next 6 months. It is expected to kill maybe a million people and that estimate comes from a very conservative source. It could be two million or three million. We don't know yet. To look backwards at the early numbers and declare this is no big deal is irresponsible.

I hope you are right. The math doesn't agree with you but I hope something happens to reverse the trend and this turns out to be no big deal. But my gut tells me that this is so big that the impact will be the single biggest economic and health event in my lifetime.
#10.1 Anon on 2020-03-13 10:50 (Reply)
“killing 3.7% of those who get it”

You are missing Dr Fauci’s point completely.

The percentage drops dramatically (and becomes more accurate) when you include those people who have the disease but either (1) are not showing symptoms or (2) their symptoms are mild and require no medical care. And you have to include those people because otherwise the stat is meaningless.

The entire case for taking drastic action of any kind falls apart with a fatality rate of 0.1%. We won’t know for awhile if that is truly an accurate number, but I would bet that way.

Meanwhile what is the cost both socially and in lost $$ and lost jobs in closing schools, chorches, all sports events, and forcing everyone to stay home essentially 24x7 for weeks? Because that is a done deal, baked in, it will probably destroy any kind of ecomonic GDP growth numbers for both Q1 and Q2.

Whoever is pushing that 3.7% number is actively feeding you propaganda to make you fearful and cause widespread panic.
#10.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-14 08:02 (Reply)
In reference to panic, I'm sure of one thing. I'm going to need toilet paper in the near future. If I get to Walmart and the aisle is still empty I'm going to be really pissed off at the idiots who stocked up. I'm all for people being prepared. I have several weeks of food and medicine stored, myself. But the time to prepare is not after an event has taken place. I just want to buy enough to last until the next time I go shopping.

This is a perfect example of how so-called "price gouging" benefits everyone. If stores were charging twice the normal price for toilet paper there would still be enough on the shelves for everyone when they need it. It would be different if these jerks loading up two carts with TP were selling it on the street corner for a profit. At least they would be helping people. But they're filling up a corner of their garage and it will probably be chewed up by mice before it ever gets used.
#11 Jack Walter on 2020-03-13 09:18 (Reply)
I think this is going to be worse than that. I would not be surprised that within a week or two that the stores will be closed. They may have toilet paper on the shelves but the doors will be barred. If this is true those bad people who hoarded early will look like geniuses.
#11.1 Saul on 2020-03-13 10:54 (Reply)
Please remember in this panic that we now have in the population a large number of people who in previous years would have passed away from their existing infirmities. Pneumonia "the old man's friend" has been decreased by shots (only valid for bacteria pneumonia), stents, cancer treatments, etc, insulin for diabetes and various treatments for failing immune systems. Add to these numbers the sufferers from the obesity epidemic. There are a lot more people at risk now. And a normal flu year sees 18,000 to 41,000 deaths from that cause alone and no one freaks out or even notices. What made the 1918 flu so horrible was the number of deaths in healthy young people. People lost their children. This does not seem to be the case here. We no longer are willing to accept any risk and expect The Government to make it all go away.
#12 fiona on 2020-03-13 16:56 (Reply)

Add Comment
(Your e-mail will not show in your comment)

By commenting on this site you agree to the site rules listed here. Email
addresses will not be displayed and will only be used for email notifications.

Quick reference guide: [i] italics [/i], [b] bold [/b], [u] underline [/u],
[url] (web address) [/url]. More tips here.

Enclosing asterisks marks text as bold (*word*), underscore are made via _word_.
E-Mail addresses will not be displayed and will only be used for E-Mail notifications.

To prevent automated Bots from commentspamming, please enter the string you see in the image below in the appropriate input box. Your comment will only be submitted if the strings match. Please ensure that your browser supports and accepts cookies, or your comment cannot be verified correctly.
CAPTCHA

BBCode format allowed
 
 
A Chris Southern Consulting website.