Maggie's Farm

Brexit's in trouble because the facile promises made by Brexiteers are impossible to implement.

One economic problem is that UK is small compared to EU-UK (European Union minus United Kingdom). If the EU-UK decides that all widgets should be green, due to the size of the EU-UK market, manufacturers all over the world will convert to green widgets. UK may produce blue widgets, but not have a ready market or the scale of production to compete with green widgets. UK will have to convert to green widgets just to sell to EU-UK and quite possibly to compete in global markets. In other words, EU-UK will make economic decisions that affect UK, but UK will no longer have a say in those decisions. UK will be just another small country among many.

Another economic problem is that UK's largest export is services, and it turns out that services means people. Currently people can move freely between UK and EU-UK. They just hop on rail or plane and set up shop in Italy or France, and start providing IT or financial or other services. The whole point of Brexit is to limit the movement of people across UK borders, so that will stifle the export of services.

The primary political problem is Ireland, which is divided between the Republic of Ireland and UK Northern Ireland. Currently, because UK and the Republic are part of the EU, people and goods can move freely between them. With Brexit, there would be a hard border limiting the flow of people within Ireland. But an open border was essential in the peace agreement which ended the violent period of "troubles" in Ireland. Creating a hard border would renege on the peace agreement, and possibly lead to a return of sectarian violence.

B. Hammer: I think Roger Daltrey says it best, “As if we didn’t tour Europe before the f***ing EU.”

Sure, but it is much easier to move a service crew from, say, Germany to Greece, than it is from a country outside the EU. The latter requires not just a passport, but work permits, and guarantees to conform to EU rules by the outside party. UK will still do business with EU-UK, but will be at a significant disadvantage in terms of access and cost.

The other economic problem, about having to conform with EU standards to continue to do business with the EU, while having no say in those rules, is still applicable. The EU-UK is a much larger economic power than UK standing alone. Who do you think other countries will prefer in trade negotiations?

Furthermore, the UK is at a disadvantage in negotiations because there is an impending date for departure. UK can't easily walk away from some sort of deal with the EU, any deal being better than no deal — and the EU knows this. That's why they wouldn't negotiate until UK made withdrawal official, setting the date putting the onus on UK.

The economic problems will have to be weathered, but the political problem with Ireland remains intractable.

Jim: There will always be an England.

Sure. But UK? Not necessarily.

Anon: Absolutely not.

Agreed. We meant most any reasonable deal.

Anon: Any deal will work in the EU's favor and will harm Britain and British citizens.

That's not necessarily the case, but depends on the specifics.

Anon: The best thing they could do is terminate it with prejudice.

A hard Brexit is certainly a possibility. Without a deal, there is no protection for UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU. Without a deal, UK would be subject to non-EU member tariffs. Without a deal, there will be a hard border between the Republican of Ireland and UK Northern Ireland.

Anon: I like hard borders.

UK has always had a great deal of immigration due to their history of empire. A hard border entails a significant economic prices, especially in a trading and banking nations, such as Britain. Nor have you address the Irish problem.

Anon: All borders have consequences but no borders have disastrous consequences.

Much of UK's wealth is due to their extensive trading networks, including the export of financial and technology services. When UK leaves EU, they will lose the leverage the EU exerts in trade, and new deals will have to be put in place from a much weaker position. A hard border will have a significant impact on UK's economy.

Anon: I am confident that if Ireland and England wanted to address it they could fix it.

The Republic of Ireland is part of the EU, and there is strong majority support for continued participation in the EU. A hard border seems inevitable, but the Irish border is important for trade and for the Irish people who have relations on both sides of the border. The peace there was contingent on an open border. Reneging on this commitment could lead to political instability with possibly disastrous consequences.

indyjonesouthere: The primary political problem is not Ireland...

Unless you're Irish.

Every conspiracy theory must needs have a Jew at its root.

B. Hammer: Surprised this didn’t cause a long write up from Z.

Long enough for ya?