Maggie's FarmWe are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for. |
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Wednesday, January 18. 2017Wednesday morning linksDisappearing Puffins Bring an Icelandic Hunting Tradition Under Scrutiny Pale penis people damage brown academic achievement The Necessity of Self-Help Lit Advice is always welcome The Doomsayer is back: Paul Ehrlich Addressing Vatican Conference on Biodiversity: New at Reason
The Coming Crackdown On Free Speech: Facebook Takes Its ‘Fake News’ Fight To Germany New Poll: Most Americans Back Parental Choice in Education JEW-HATRED DRESSED UP AS 'JUSTICE' - A look at the hate group Students for Justice in Palestine. New ABC / WaPo Poll Shows Drop In Trump Favorability Courtesy Of Aggressive "Oversamples" Are terrorists crossing the US-Mexico border? Woodward Says US Intel Should Apologize Over Trump Dossier CNN's Resident Racist Called Steve Harvey and MLK III 'Mediocre Negroes' There ain’t a word, thought, deed, symbol, piece of legislation, or news item that cannot be imbued with a racial angle when there’s a determined race hustler around " I must myself be a very attractive person for, after all, I am very rightwing." Obama legacy a big lie, let me count the ways Trump time starts now Blind Opera Singer Andrea Bocelli Backs Out of Inauguration After Receiving Death Threats Jennifer Holliday Says She Received Death Threats for Agreeing to Perform for Trump "Hillary is going to be very busy as President the next 4-8 years. Donald Trump is going to be very bitter. And the Republicans are just going to be gone. Good riddence."
Trump Considering Cutting Government Budget by 10%, Federal Workforce by 20% Easily done - executive orders like Obama WaPo: Trump presidency is doomed The Republican Health-Care Debate: A guide for the perplexed Why Obamacare’s ‘20 Million’ Number Is Fake Trump met with Judge William Pryor on Saturday How Rex Tillerson Got Even With Venezuela’s Socialists Iran deal: A shameful day Why the United States Is Losing Its Technological Edge Israeli Technology Helps Giants Like Monsanto Feed the World Last year was a gruesome one for Turkey, and this year is getting off to the worst possible start. Trackbacks
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I should state that the motivation behind my countdown is essentially that of an interested foreign observer (I'm Canadian) witnessing the obvious end of one era in US politics and the beginning of another.
I've kept pretty mum on Trump since his election victory, ignoring the great tower of noise surrounding it (which, when boiled right down, amounts to not much more than "Boo-hoo, we lost! How could this have happened?"). From 20 January on, we can start to judge your new president more realistically i.e, by his actions rather than his tweets. I think we have pretty good indication of how Trump will behave, based on his cabinet picks. The men and women he has is simply outstanding. More conservative then I would have hoped for.
Myself? I am just a casual observer of the scene. And it is obscene. And I am deplorable--thank you very much.
My motivation for your countdown is obvious. Ready to erase the chalk board and get on with it. "From 20 January on, we can start to judge your new president more realistically i.e, by his actions..." And, we too. Right now we have a pig in a poke; it's a chance that some of us were willing to take. Us Americans have always been risk takers--we took one last time and see how that turned out. All I really want is my life, my liberty, and to be able to pursue my happiness, wherever that may take me. That's not asking too much, is it? Re: Poll most Americans back parental choice in Ed.
I am so curious as to the Betsy DeVoos vision. Sometimes she persuades me and sometimes not so much. Choice is good, agreed. I get lost in her chatter about teacher creativity and innovation. There have been some goofy Ed experiments that have failed and the kids in school at that time, the guinea pigs, lost out big time. My sister, six years behind me, had a math education that was terrible. I listened to the some of the hearing and am trying to tease out her vision of the actual future of public schools and of its curriculum. The prima dona Senators don't help. The ones who back her give simple questions, while the ones who do not back her ask stupid, agenda questions (and waste much time whining about lack of question time) The one school model DeVoos described was the Acton school. I think it was Acton. And, not sure what grade it is for, but there are no teachers. The adults answer the self directed students when they have questions with another question. This model sounds like a dream school, but for gifted and or motivated students. Not sure, maybe the other, lackadaisical student could indeed flourish, just not sure. Anyway, would have liked more info on her philosophy of Ed, beyond just choice, from the hearing. Hopefully, she will help shut down the Federal Dept of Ed and turn the responsibility back to the states. As the Feds have gotten more control over the dollars, they have built a bureaucracy that's now out of control; more administrators in the system than teachers in the classroom. The costs have sky-rocketed for both personnel and products such as textbooks (rewritten constantly to meet the "history" the politicos want presented) and testing.
Anything that gets parents more involved in the schooling of their children should be applauded. An engaged parent is worth a hundred "experts" with useless advanced degrees. My family (when I was a child and my own children) would have benefitted from a self-directed curriculum. I was lucky enough to be part of the 'experiment' with open classrooms from Kindergarten through second grade in a mixed class of first through third graders (I knew how to read at 5, so they didn't want me in kindergarten). I got to work on whatever I wanted at different stations (math, reading, writing, etc.) and once I completed a station or a group of assignments, I could move onto the next level.
It was PARADISE for me! I made it a challenge for myself at that young age to want to max out on the reading levels as quickly as possible. As I recall 'orange' was the highest level. I also was able to start learning the basics of handwriting with a light-up table where you traced letters. Since I'd done fine with print, I got to move onto script because I wanted to do it. My children were forced to follow a different path. One of my children really wanted to go at his own pace and was punished for it in certain classrooms. Other teachers recognized his intelligence and gave him his own, harder work. There were also opportunities in math lab (using the computer) for him to go as fast as he wanted through the material. However, he did have many instances where he complained about teachers 'wasting time' when he wanted to learn (?!) by telling stories or going off topic. Drove him nuts. I agree, though, that self-directed learning is not for all students. But parents should be able to decide. Put your child in that school for a semester and see how he does. The teachers should be able to tell you if he is making progress or needs a more structured environment. I truly hope you are serving or advising your local schools. We need people such as you sharing such experiences and seeing that they are available to others. TY!
QUOTE: New ABC / WaPo Poll Shows Drop In Trump Favorability Courtesy Of Aggressive "Oversamples" Oversampling is a valid statistical technique that is used to increase resolution in subset populations. In this case, Durden seems to mean that the sample is biased, while other times he conflates oversampling with improperly manipulating the results. QUOTE: In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters. ABC/Wapo shows the lead tightening closer to election day, and were very close to the final result with Clinton +2%. QUOTE: The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans That's called a result, not oversampling. It's not that far from other polls on party affiliation, which typically varies from +1% to +7% for Democrats. QUOTE: while a quick 2 second review of the methodology of these polls immediately reveals their obvious bias, here are some of the results. Except he neglected to provide that 2-second review. By the way, even if we were to weight the results according to the party affiliation he suggests, the result would not be significantly affected: Trump would still have far lower approval rating than other presidents at their inauguration. Let's have another poll about Trump's approval. Let's ask 750 people in Wyoming and 250 from LA what they think about Trump.
mudbug: Let's ask 750 people in Wyoming and 250 from LA what they think about Trump.
Sure, you can do that, but it won't be representative of the overall U.S. population. Their sample wasn't representative of the overall U.S. population either.
mudbug: Their sample wasn't representative of the overall U.S. population either.
No sample is every going to be a perfect representation, but it seems to be within reasonable expectations of such a sample. What specifically makes you think it is not representative?
#3.2.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2017-01-18 11:22
(Reply)
Did you read the article or did you just dismiss it out of hand? Taking the actual party affiliation breakdown in the article, Democrats are under sampled by a little and Republicans are under sampled by a lot. So lets say that because we don't know where the author gets his graph of party affiliation, we might want to choose another source that is considered reliable. According to Gallup, the breakdown of party affiliation has been essentially even since early December and even if you take the breakdown from November, Republicans were way under sampled.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
#3.2.1.1.1.1
mudbug
on
2017-01-18 12:25
(Reply)
mudbug: i]Taking the actual party affiliation breakdown in the article, Democrats are under sampled by a little and Republicans are under sampled by a lot.[/i]
October 5-9, Democrats +5%. November 1-6, Democrats +4%. January 4-8, Democrats -3%, but the Trump transition is going poorly, so that will tend to skew it back to Democrats. Points you overlook: • The CNN poll of party affiliation is a result, not an apriori conclusion. • Even if we weight according to Gallup's poll results for party affiliation, it would still support the claim that Trump's approval rating is anomalously low for a new president.
#3.2.1.1.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2017-01-18 12:55
(Reply)
Z: ...but the Trump transition is going poorly, so that will tend to skew it back to Democrats.
Says you... Z: ...Even if we weight according to Gallup's poll results for party affiliation, it would still support the claim that Trump's approval rating is anomalously low for a new president. Without a breakdown of the way each segment responded (Democrat, Republican, Independent), I don't see how you can say that and the press release for the poll doesn't beak out the results that way.
#3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1
mudbug
on
2017-01-18 14:30
(Reply)
mudbug: Without a breakdown of the way each segment responded (Democrat, Republican, Independent), I don't see how you can say that and the press release for the poll doesn't beak out the results that way.
Because an 8-point difference in party affiliation can't make up for a 44-point difference in approval ratings, even if Republicans give 100% approval to Trump.
#3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2017-01-18 15:10
(Reply)
Reread the article. Trump favorabe/unfavorable is 40/54. That's a 14 point difference not 44.
#3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1
mudbug
on
2017-01-18 22:53
(Reply)
mudbug: Trump favorabe/unfavorable is 40/54.
The claim at issue is that Trump favorability upon ascending to the presidency is anomalously low compared to other presidents. Trump 40% Obama 84% Bush 61% Clinton 67% That's a 44% deficit compared to the last president. Even with Bush, who won with a highly contested result, losing the popular vote, had much stronger approval ratings.
#3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2017-01-19 08:08
(Reply)
Zachy:
Wrap your head around this: Trump won. Friday, in two days, on January 20, 2017 he will officially be the President of the United States. It is unstoppable--all your drivel and protest is in vain. We loves you here--you are red meat. Barry will be history on the wrong side of history. Life will go on. The Earth will not tilt off of its axis. The sun will come up on January 21. Ever as it ever was. I am hoping for a return to reality, a concept some out there do not have a handle on. Polls and statistics have their place; but don't bet the ranch. tennesseered: Trump won.
That is correct. tennesseered: Friday, in two days, on January 20, 2017 he will officially be the President of the United States. That is correct. The question concerned the reliability of polls showing Trump with an historically low approval rating for a new President, something important to Trump's ability to unite the American people behind his presidency. Here, let me provide a condensed version for all of Zachriel's pithy nosisms. Here it is:
"Boo-hoo, we lost! How could this have happened?" Do you have any background in statistics? You don't seem to have much of a grasp on this topic.
Anson Hood: You don't seem to have much of a grasp on this topic.
We're more than happy to learn, however, it's not a close call. Weighting by political party won't change the claim that Trump's approval rating is anomalously low for a new president. Of course, his numbers may improve (or worsen) over time. QUOTE: Why Obamacare’s ‘20 Million’ Number Is Fake Assuming no replacment plan in place, CBO estimates 19 million more uninsured in the first year of repeal, and 24 million over time. Sam L: Could it be that they don't want to be insured?
Sure, but society has made a decision to provide at least emergency medical treatment to everyone regardless of ability to pay, so there has to be a mechanism to distribute the costs. When you have $20 trillion in debt what do you call "Cutting Government Budget by 10%, Federal Workforce by 20%"?
A good start. I say be bold, go big. Cut the government workforce by 50%, bring government wages back in alignment with the civilian work force. Separate out SS and Medicare from the budget and then cut the federal budget by 50%. This would require eliminating half a dozen cabinet level departments. That would be an even better start. "What I want to say is that Jesus (by which I mean the whole tradition that flows from him) saved my mind. From what? Well, for starters, from mountains of bullshit."
*Erlich*? Author of 'The Population Bomb'? That guy? He's not someone I would listen to as being 'saved from mountains of bullshit' as his whole career has been built on shoveling a mountain of bullshit. He is not a good example to hold up to show any benefits religious belief can have on rational thought. |