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Wednesday, May 18. 2016

Are You Raising a Little Criminal? A preference for immediate gratification, rather than a bigger reward later on, is a bad sign.

Don't Blame The Solomon Islands Sinking All On Climate Change

Does an Accurate Climate Model Exist?

Ontario's big, green assisted economic suicide plan

A Cheese Glut Is Overtaking America

Viral video: If Meat Eaters Acted Like Vegans

JP is often amusing. I had missed this one. His gluten piece is the best.

Your tax dollars at work: 'Make a grocery list': Feds teach people how to shop for food

Left Outside the Social-Justice Movement's Small Tent - Why a high school senior feels alienated from activist groups that share causes in which he believes.

Communist Pope Francis condemned Western powers for trying to export freedom, opportunity, prosperity, peace and

modernity to the Muslim world.

Right, for the wrong reason

Understanding the Rise of the Global Super-Rich - A new report documents the extent of billionaire wealth across the world.

"... we’re spending a lot on entitlements, and unless we raise income taxes, we’re going to have to adjust entitlement spending steeply downwards."

Barack Obama, the Bathroom President

President Obama’s Transgender Proclamation Is Far Broader and More Dangerous than You Think

Steer Clear of the Clinton Scandals, It Will Backfire, Ever Helpful New York Times Warns Trump

Shock Claim: Media will be ‘unlikely’ ally for Hillary

Hillary Might Have Just Made Her Worst Mistake Ever

Noam Chomsky: Today’s GOP is ‘the most dangerous’ threat to the species ‘in human history’

Which species?

At Blaze:

As one of my best friends said yesterday, “If any of them were real Republicans they’d be using their shock, outrage and vitriol to attack Obama and Hillary and Bernie every second of every day. They’d be condemning the Democrats over this horrible economy. We’re all drowning. Instead Republican leaders are in panic over Trump? Are you kidding me?”

The Faceberg Six:

Six months from now, being #nevertrump is going to be the mark of Cain, regardless of the election outcome. If Trump loses conservatives will blame these traitors for the defeat. If Trump wins, the #nevertrump loons will be packed off to the labor camps. Well, we can dream. Still, life is not going to be fun for these people if Trump is in the White House. There’s just no obvious upside to this #nevertrump nuttiness, other than the craven cash grab.

"Oh my, whatever shall we do with the Donald?"

Douthat on Trump voters etc: When the Wrong Are Right

Douthat is so wrong. Like Brooks, he needs to get out more

1996 Flashback -- Bill Clinton Talks Like Trump On Immigration: "We Are A Nation Of Laws"

Donald Trump Criticizes Washington’s Policy Elite—With Cause

Just 3 Years Ago, Salon Extolled Economic Miracle in Socialist Venezuela

Islamists Infiltrate the Swedish Government - One Month of Islam and Multiculturalism in Sweden: April 2016

Don’t Blame Sykes-Picot for the Middle East’s Mess

Just
3 Years Ago, Salon Extolled Economic Miracle in Socialist Venezuela -
See more at: http://moonbattery.com/?p=72082#sthash.Coe1anJw.dpuf

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 06:54 | Comments (29) | Trackbacks (0)

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QUOTE:

Does an Accurate Climate Model Exist? ... Our one accurate, transparent and un-tampered with set of data–satellite temperature measurements–is now 37 years old.

That is incorrect. Temperature data from satellites are highly manipulated. Complex models are used to isolate atmospheric layers and to compensate for orbital decay and other effects. Indeed, satellites don't directly measure temperature at all!

Other scientific teams have studied the satellite data and found that the troposphere is warming somewhat faster than the surface, as expected by climate models. See Fu et al., Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends, Nature 2004; and Vinnikov et al., Temperature trends at the surface and in the troposphere, Journal of Geophysical Research 2006.

#1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 08:53 (Reply)

QUOTE:

There are a number of ways to present how poorly climate models simulate global surface temperatures. [etc]

[...]

It’s very hard to overlook the fact that, over the past decade, climate models are simulating way too much warming and are diverging rapidly from reality. [etc.]

[...]

Another way to show how poorly climate models perform is to subtract the observations-based reconstruction from the average of the model outputs (model mean).

Because the models failed to properly simulate the cooling from the 1880s to the 1910s, they also failed to properly simulate the warming that took place from the 1910s until 1940. [...] The difference cycles back and forth, nearing a zero difference in the 1980s and 90s, indicating the models are tracking observations better (relatively) during that period. And from the 1990s to present, because of the slowdown in warming, the difference has increased to greatest value ever…where the difference indicates the models are showing too much warming.

April 2016 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/15/april-2016-global-surface-landocean-and-lower-troposphere-temperature-anomaly-update/

On the Elusive Absolute Global Mean Surface Temperature – A Model-Data Comparison

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/on-the-elusive-absolute-global-mean-surface-temperature-a-model-data-comparison/

#1.1 Ten on 2016-05-18 09:06 (Reply)

Ten: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/15/april-2016-global-surface-landocean-and-lower-troposphere-temperature-anomaly-update/

You responded to citations to research published in Nature and Geophysical Research Letters, which show discrepancies with UAH, by linking to a blog article based on UAH.

UAH does show a statistically significant warming trend, 0.149°C/decade, since 1979. It's a rather long blog post. Was there something in particular we are supposed to note?

#1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 09:48 (Reply)

Z: UAH does show a statistically significant warming trend, 0.149°C/decade, since 1979

That's based on UAH 5. UAH 6 still shows a positive trend.
http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2016/april/tlt_update_bar%20April%202016.png

#1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 09:58 (Reply)

Here's a more recent study, this time concerning RSS and adjustments for the diurnal cycle. Mears & Wentz, Sensitivity of Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperature Trends to the Diurnal Cycle Adjustment, Journal of Climate 2016.

#1.1.1.2 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 10:09 (Reply)

The Z-Bot responded to its fabrication pursuant my cites. This is because Z-Bot is a bot. A routine. A program. Us humans refer to its familiar phenomenon as squid ink.

Under said squid ink I simply placed a topical reinforcement of BD's link's premise that climate models are unreliable as AGW-supporting science.

It is entirely possible that bots lack both the contextual cues and the rhetorical integrity to devise the more meaningful dialog that has humans automatically connecting various contextual dots.

#1.1.1.3 Ten on 2016-05-18 11:19 (Reply)

Ten: Under said squid ink I simply placed a topical reinforcement of BD's link's premise that climate models are unreliable as AGW-supporting science.

The article Bird Dog linked to claimed that "satellite temperature measurements" are "our one accurate, transparent and un-tampered with set of data," which is not correct. Satellites don't even measure temperature. As that faulty claim is the foundation of the article, it means the article's argument is without foundation.

#1.1.1.3.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 11:37 (Reply)

^ Note, human people, that having now itself redefined the narrative it claimed had been incorrectly redefined elsewhere, the Z-Bot has now responded to itself and its own vague serial threading. This is predicted.

This is the common loop-phenomenon known as squid ink, therein confirmed as a virtual real-time proof of the bot's current cognition level. Human people can imagine concealed operators diligently checking punch cards and spools of magnetic tape, and fussing over little glowing green screens with squigly lines on them.

Continued engagement should produce one of two additional responses: Further cognitive deterioration and complete loss of claimed topic, or complete silence as the program eventually end-stops entirely.

#1.1.1.3.1.1 Ten on 2016-05-18 11:50 (Reply)

Ten: Further cognitive deterioration and complete loss of claimed topic ...

In fact, we are directly addressing the point, which was "Does an Accurate Climate Model Exist?" The argument in the linked article was based on the claim that "satellite temperature measurements" are "our one accurate, transparent and un-tampered with set of data," which is not correct.

It is YOU who has continued to divert the discussion.

#1.1.1.3.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 14:10 (Reply)

This is where I spend 90 minutes laying out how all this connects, who said what and for what reason, where all the links lead, and then apply the context normal humans use while engaged in normal human discourse about mutually-interesting topics. This done, I'll have succumbed to what Z-Bot is designed to peddle, which is diversion.

Then Z-Bot will consult its programming before shooting squid ink all over it in the fourteen seconds it takes for it to make some beeping noises and close some contacts before issuing 147 words with nothing to do with anything except racing 'bot goalposts around the blog. This is why we normal human people call it diversion.

This normal human people persons also call this a royal waste of time.

Squid ink has been specially formulated to waste time by painting the merest appearances of real argumentation.

Z-Bot's programmers may wish to note that dysfunction is manifest by two primary indicators: Dishonesty and peddling appearances. Solve those two and this artificial intelligence thing may actually develop its intended market.

#1.1.1.3.1.1.1.1 Ten on 2016-05-18 15:21 (Reply)

"Noam Chomsky: Today’s GOP is 'the most dangerous' threat to the species 'in human history'"

A friend and I once invented "Choam Nomsky": a brilliant political analyst who came up with crank linguistics theories as a sideline.

#2 JJM on 2016-05-18 09:06 (Reply)

Noam Chomsky's diatribes against reports of Pol Pot's genocide in Cambodia didn't exactly help his credibility.

Just for the fun of it, I took a copy of Chomsky's Year 501: The Conquest Continues 1st edition from a free books bin. The book is about Latin America, and as I have long been interested in Latin America, I thought I would compare his knowledge with mine. He cites sources to give the impression that health care under the Pinochet regime was a disaster. World Bank Development Indicators informs us that from 1973 to 1989, the years that Pinochet was dictator, Chile went from 12th to 5th in Life Expectancy in Latin America. Not the health care disaster that Chomsky would have his readers believe. For one example.

#2.1 Gringo on 2016-05-18 15:36 (Reply)

The current meltdown of the "Bolivarian" revolution in Venezuela is the best counter to the absurdity of Chomskyite notions.

Notice how even the so-called "progressives" are avoiding the subject of Venezuela these days?

#2.1.1 JJM on 2016-05-18 19:20 (Reply)

"Don’t Blame Sykes-Picot for the Middle East’s Mess"

Same old same old.

Blame the Romans.

Heck, why not Alexander The Great while we're at it?

Or Nebuchadnezzar for that matter?

One thing's for sure: it certainly has to be blamed on somebody else - anyone but the inhabitants themselves of course.

#3 JJM on 2016-05-18 09:11 (Reply)

Republicans will pack #neverTrumpers off to labor camps. As if. Republicans don't even require illegal aliens to work in order to get their free Obamacare and welfare. Why the hell would we start by putting our own misguided souls into labor camps?!?!

If there are labor camps, Hillary, Chelsea, Bill and other parasites of their ilk should be the 1st campers.

#4 Dangerous Dean on 2016-05-18 09:24 (Reply)

Nah, they will just be marginalized and no longer relevant. So all of those aides and think tanks and policy people whose lives were built around working for RNC and its candidates will be looking for jobs...or having to retool their careers.

#4.1 MissT on 2016-05-18 12:10 (Reply)

re "... we’re spending a lot on entitlements, and unless we raise income taxes, we’re going to have to adjust entitlement spending steeply downwards."

When you look at this :

Baby Boomers' Retirement Woes Summed Up in 5 Statistics

http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2016/05/15/baby-boomers-retirement-woes-summed-up-in-5-statis.aspx

It illustrates how hard any meaningful SS reductions will be to make.

Printing money is the path of least resistance. I expect we will do that to fund entitlements until we can't anymore. What happens next is anyone's guess.

#5 feeblemind on 2016-05-18 11:20 (Reply)

"Satellites don't even measure temperature."
So What? To point out the obvious, thermometers don't even measure temperature. Temperature is inferred from the expansion of a liquid.

#6 Ray on 2016-05-18 11:52 (Reply)

Ray: So What? To point out the obvious, thermometers don't even measure temperature. Temperature is inferred from the expansion of a liquid.

The direct one-to-one correspondence of the expansion in the thermometer and temperature, and because they can be easily calibrated, thermometers are reasonably considered a direct measure. Satellites don't measure temperature, but radiation, and that measurement can only be interpreted as temperature through a complex model that includes many different influences, including satellite drift and the diurnal cycle. We provided citations above that concern the issue of determining temperature from satellite measurements.

#6.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 14:15 (Reply)

So are you two ( or however many people Zachriel are; if indeed you are people) saying the only thermometer that you people use, and is considered 100% infallible, is mercury expansion? No wonder you believe in man caused global warming!

#6.1.1 B. Hammer on 2016-05-18 17:53 (Reply)

B. Hammer: saying the only thermometer that you people use, and is considered 100% infallible, is mercury expansion?

Where the Heavens did you get that idea?! There are a number of reasons why thermometers may provide inaccurate readings. Nor does it mean we can't infer important information about atmospheric temperature from satellites. Contrary to statements in the linked article, satellites are only one type of evidence — one that has its own difficulties.

In particular, UAH agrees that the troposphere is warming. The point of contention are the corrections being made by UAH, which are disputed by many other researchers.

#6.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 19:10 (Reply)

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who always knew the whole AGW scam was always a scam and was intended to allow the left to seize power and money from those who had it. And those who are clueless, uninformed and probably don't even know what "AGW" means.

Therefore the argument continues but both sides in the argument know with certainty that it is all a scam.

#6.1.1.1.1 GoneWithTheWind on 2016-05-19 16:43 (Reply)

The NYCHRL [New York City Human Rights Law] requires employers[, landlords, and all businesses and professionals] to use an [employee’s, tenant’s, customer’s, or client’s] preferred name, pronoun and title (e.g., Ms./Mrs.) regardless of the individual’s sex assigned at birth, anatomy, gender, medical history, appearance, or the sex indicated on the individual’s identification.

New York: The Worst City in America

#7 bgarrett on 2016-05-18 12:00 (Reply)

Solomon's Sinking: Popular Science bit the green weenie years ago.

A cheese glut? More cheese on my cheeburgers! Doin' my part.

On the outs with SJWs? That's what they're all about, the "purer than thou" crowd know what they know and admit nothing that contradicts that in any way or any infinitesimal amount.

Obama Bathrooms.: Given the WC (Brit for bathroom) controversy in NC, I'm reasonably sure Hill has next to no chance there. Bern, too. Meanwhile, The Won is letting her twist slowly in the wind on the bathroom server story (Hey! A 2-bathroom comment!).

#8 Sam L. on 2016-05-18 12:17 (Reply)

Wanna jump start the American economy? This ought to do it.

https://pjmedia.com/michaelwalsh/2016/05/17/to-reclaim-america-abolish-the-federal-agencies/?singlepage=true

#9 feeblemind on 2016-05-18 12:31 (Reply)

That whole delayed gratification thing is interesting, and I've often thought of a generalization of it not relating to criminal behavior, but in how societies and groups adapt to modernization. There are two selective forces at work.

In general, hunter gatherers need to work in a short time window. A windfall of fruit, or a major animal kill is a short term resource and is often shared amongst the group because there is no benefit to hoarding it (in that way a kind of reciprocal generosity is encouraged). Tomorrow, the search for food starts all over again.

Agriculture turns it all upside down. There are no short term payoffs. Planting, cultivating are long term goals and the most successful people in these societies are the ones who do think long term, the exact opposite of the hunter gatherer culture. There is still some pressure for generosity, but that often takes the form of cooperative trade.

It seems (from limited knowledge) that cultures with deep agricultural roots seem to adapt more easily to the modern world than those of a more transient lifestyle.

#10 jay on 2016-05-18 15:07 (Reply)

"Satellites don't measure temperature, but radiation,"
The satellites don't measure radiation but the frequency of radiation. The frequency of radiation is mathematically related to the absolute temperature of the radiating object so in theory determining the temperature is trivial. However, the frequency measured by the satellites is perturbed by various effects such as Doppler and diffraction. These effects have to be accounted for so this complicates the temperature estimation process.

#11 Ray on 2016-05-18 16:48 (Reply)

Ray: The satellites don't measure radiation but the frequency of radiation.

They measure radiances in different frequency bands.

Ray: the frequency measured by the satellites is perturbed by various effects such as Doppler and diffraction.

That's correct. Many different phenomena can cause perturbations. It's difficult enough that UAH botched their initial calculations. The satellite temperature record has been revised many times, contrary to the implication found in the article.

#11.1 Zachriel on 2016-05-18 17:08 (Reply)

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#12 youtube alternative (Link) on 2016-05-21 04:53 (Reply)

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Wednesday, May 18. 2016

Wednesday morning links