We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Acknowledgement of the inconvenient truth of the global warming "pause" - even by Michael "Hide the Decline" Mann, injects some realism into the hysteria. Not that there is anything more than tiny islands of hysteria out there anyway. Nobody really cares unless there is money to be gotten.
Basically, computer models of complex systems, eg economics or climate, are never reality - just conjectures.
As for me, I do not give a damn what the "climate" does as long as we do not have another Ice Age soon. That would make me feel sad about my descendants because they might have to emigrate downhill to Florida or Mexico.
We will have another Ice Age, but it will probably be in thousands of years...
Whatever happens, we have the ability to alter our environment to make it comfortable.
As long as the environmentalists allow us to generate the energy required to make those changes.
Not so long ago ~2008 to 2011 I recall Sceptical-Science ridiculing such denialist arguments that PDO changes correlated with global average temp. Now it is conventional wisdom, appearing in Nature in 2014 and the popular press last week.
Spencer and others had noticed a correlation between the PDO and average global air temperature. They noted that when PDO is positive (west ocean water cool, east region warm) the global temperature increases, when PDO is negative it drops. The long-term upwards trend in surface air temperature correlates with the PDO being positive over more time than it is negative.
Cook in several blog entries at Skeptical Science and and elsewhere belittled this, saying that the mechanism of the PDO was to cycle heat between the sea and the air, and it was long-term trendless, so it could not explain the constantly warming trend in air, nor be in any way explanatory of anything other than a short-term trend. There is no way for the PDO to "add" heat, it just moves around heat that is here.
Now that we have a trend 1998 - 2013 of little measurable increase in the surface air temperature, the PDO is redeemed as an explanation for a trend at least that long -- the expected temperature increase from global warming is still out there somewhere, it's just that the spatial movement of heat by the PDO has taken it somewhere where we aren't measuring it, and in due course the PDO will cycle back and will bring the heat back to where we can see it. (The PDO has been negative the majority of time since 98).
I don't see how the link I provided contradicted my short summary from distant memory, or how I'm conflating heat and temperature.
In 08-11 Cook was saying you can't pin the temperature on the PDO because the temperature keeps going up, now other different people are saying you can and that it explains why the (measured) temperature hasn't gone up.
Douglas2: Spencer and others had noticed a correlation between the PDO and average global air temperature.
Spencer didn't discover the PDO. It was discovered by Steven R. Hare studying Pacific salmon production in 1997. Walker Circulation was discovered by Gilbert Walker a century ago.
What you quoted from Skeptical Science was "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifts heat around the globe, but the Earth is steadily warming overall," which is correct. Overall heat continues to increase, even if the surface temperature sometimes decreases.
Douglas2: the spatial movement of heat by the PDO has taken it somewhere where we aren't measuring it
Douglas2: In 08-11 Cook was saying you can't pin the temperature on the PDO because the temperature keeps going up, now other different people are saying you can and that it explains why the (measured) temperature hasn't gone up.
No. Per your link, the heat keeps goings up. Let's look at the link.
"The climate is warming — and that means if you look at a graph of average global temperatures, you’ll see an overall upward trend over the last 130 years."
"But from year to year, you’ll also see the temperature wiggle up and down. Part of that wiggle comes from natural climate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)."
"The PDO cycles between warm and cool phases that typically last 20-30 years each. Here’s the thing: Internal climate cycles like the PDO primarily redistribute heat around the planet. "
"Unlike carbon pollution, they don’t INCREASE the total amount of heat held by the oceans and the atmosphere. "
Douglas2: Not so long ago ~2008 to 2011 I recall Sceptical-Science ridiculing such denialist arguments that PDO changes correlated with global average temp.
According to your link, "temperature wiggles up and down" partly due to the PDO, but heat continues to increase.
Oh, it's all B.S. - this is about employment security (more grants for studies) for academia paired with some nasty urge by the enlightened to control others. They're either sick or full of self interest, pushed at the expense of continuing development of civilization.
You get what you deserve and that serves us right for accepting that the inhabitants of the ivory towers are interested in truth or our collective well being, neither of which is the actual case.