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Monday, February 1. 2016

Scientists open the ‘black box’ of schizophrenia with dramatic genetic discovery

France drops hate speech charge against Bob Dylan but not because it doesn't think his speech was a crime.

University Of Kentucky Offers Course On Taco Literacy…

A Reprieve For Online Freedom? DoJ Gets Cold Feet On ADA-For-The-Web

Should the internet be in Braille?

Dawkins is a thought criminal

Blasphemer!

Bill Maher: I Wish Liberals Would Have Same Intolerance For Muslims That They Do For Christians

Nobody is afraid of Christians

Taki on Davos:

Race and immigration are two things, like sex and money used to be, that people are not allowed to talk about. Well, they can all go to hell. The EU is a dictatorship by unelected bureaucrats who wish to control our lives. Our elected representatives know this, yet are doing everything they can to perpetuate it. That’s what they should have been discussing in Davos.

300 Scientists Sign Letter Opposing Federal Data Fudging Regarding Global Warming

The Lust for Climate Catastrophes

Virtues of journalism are at stake in project by Columbia's Energy and Environment Reporting Fellowship

We Totally Need A Climate Change Anonymous Or Something

The ugly PC race to be the ‘victimiest’ victim

The Women Who Should Love Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton is the change America needs

At the Pentagon, General Chaos is in Charge

Obama bucks history, directs Pentagon to make guns safer, not more lethal

U.S. Navy Confirms ‘Abnormal and Unprofessional’ Iranian UAV Recon Flight Over Carriers Truman, Charles de Gaulle

Cuba’s Next Flood Of Immigrants Arrives

Merkel: Yeah, maybe all these refugees should go home when the war ends

What war? Most of these people are not from Syria

Europe’s tragedy: Too much Angela Merkel, too little masculinity

EU leaders insist there is 'NO LINK' between the
migrant crisis and New Year sex attacks in Cologne - and vow to bring
about an end to 'false accusations'

Italians Mock Cover-Up of Nude Statues for Iranian’s Visit

A World Where Muslim Pedophiles Roam Freely

It is culturally normal for them

Migrant Crime Soaring in Sweden

Invasion Update: 92% of Migrant Muslim Teens Entering Sweden are Male

EU Leaders’ Dangerous Delusions Regarding Migrant Crisis

David Cameron to force EU crunch meeting as migration crisis deepens

Just ignore Brussels.

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 06:22 | Comments (24) | Trackbacks (0)

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QUOTE:

300 Scientists Sign Letter Opposing Federal Data Fudging Regarding Global Warming

How many are named "Steve"?
http://ncse.com/taking-action/project-steve

#1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 09:33 (Reply)

Oddly enough, the 300 scientists didn't publish research showing why the adjustments were in error.

#1.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 09:34 (Reply)

That's already been published. You just avoid certain facts.

And that list of scientists could be much longer

#1.1.1 DrTorch on 2016-02-01 10:29 (Reply)

DrTorch: That's already been published.

Citation please.

#1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 11:18 (Reply)

Cite your citation demand, squid ink. I demand you cite your demand.

#1.1.1.1.1 Ten on 2016-02-01 11:51 (Reply)

As one with as BSc (Hon) in geology, I have no problem with the idea that climate change is happening. I do, however, have a serious issue with those who push climate change (and, in particular, AGM) as a matter of faith. Climate change is a matter of fact, not faith: it has happened, is happening, and will happen in the future.

That being said, we have always tried to "tread gently this good earth". We have endeavoured to be conservative, frugal users of energy and water (I had a "suds-saver" on our washing machine for a good 20 years, and a "solar dryer" outside for more). But we are also realistic: our standard of living depends on cheap and reliable sources of energy; electric energy is only as clean as its source, but it is also a necessity for our society today.

"...what we do not live, we do not have a right to require." These words by Sr Joan Chittister are as valid to day as when she penned them in her commentary on the Rule of Benedict (1992). When listening to those who presume to comment on their "definite faith" in global warning, I am also looking at their lifestyles. Those who want us ordinary folk to be forced to cut back and live a more meagre lifestyle and better show a robustl commitment to cutting their carbon footprints down to ours.

As an aside: Leonardo DiCaprio - next time you are alarmed by a Chinook, check with the local First Nations who have experienced same for centuries, not the film crew from Vancouver who are ignoramouses.

#1.2 Frances on 2016-02-01 23:44 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Bill Maher: I Wish Liberals Would Have Same Intolerance For Muslims That They Do For Christians

QUOTE:

Italians Mock Cover-Up of Nude Statues for Iranian’s Visit

#2 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 09:39 (Reply)

Covering up nude statues: Iranians say thanks but no thanks to Italy
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-35423028

#2.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 09:58 (Reply)

Italians weren't too happy about it either. A sad commentary on what passes for respect today - showing subservience to equals (or rather lessers in this case). Sort of like a President bowing to foreign kings.

#2.1.1 mudbug on 2016-02-01 10:32 (Reply)

It wasn't Ashcroft who covered the statue; it was some assistant who thought it should be covered.

#2.1.1.1 Sam L. on 2016-02-01 16:42 (Reply)

"300 Scientists Sign Letter Opposing Federal Data Fudging Regarding Global Warming"

I'm a scientist and I would have signed but I was not asked. I, like many others out there, are dismayed at the blind faith put into climate models in light of real observations and data. If you need to "adjust" the measured values to support your argument/theory then you are violating your scientific principles. This climate nonsense hews to the "follow the money" canard.

#3 rocdoctom on 2016-02-01 12:06 (Reply)

whoops! is

#3.1 rocdoctom on 2016-02-01 12:10 (Reply)

This is something I've tried hard to point out to people. If you're constantly recalculating data, perpetually 'adjusting' it, then something's badly wrong in your methodology.

And a computer model is very much like a supermodel. Viewed statically after much preparation and adjustment and modification - they look good. Especially after Photoshop gets through with the image. (So to speak.)

But don't confuse that static image with day-to-day reality. If you're needing to include disclaimers like 'After adjustment, we've determined that the temperature of the Earth is .02 degrees higher than any previous record, with a confidence of plus or minus .2 degrees,' you're simply indulging in statistical mastubation, not providing anything resembling useful data.

#3.2 JLawson on 2016-02-01 12:58 (Reply)

JLawson: This is something I've tried hard to point out to people. If you're constantly recalculating data, perpetually 'adjusting' it, then something's badly wrong in your methodology.

Or the data itself has issues. In this case, the scientists are comparing temperature readings from ships, which use various forms of data collection, to modern buoys. The old measurements are demonstrably warm due to temperature pollution from the ship.

Scientists use statistical adjustments in nearly all fields of study. The most basic method is using multiple measurements to improve precision.

In any case, you can't just say "they adjusted the data, so it's wrong". You have to look at the actual methodology to see if the adjustments are appropriate.

JLawson: And a computer model is very much like a supermodel.

Overall global warming is due to relatively simple physics. How that heat is transferred within the climate system requires complex modeling.

JLawson: If you're needing to include disclaimers like 'After adjustment, we've determined that the temperature of the Earth is .02 degrees higher than any previous record, with a confidence of plus or minus .2 degrees,' you're simply indulging in statistical mastubation, not providing anything resembling useful data.

HADCrut4, 1976-2016 trend
0.172 ±0.034 °C/decade (2σ)

#3.2.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 13:15 (Reply)

IN this case, however, temperature is continuously variable in both time and space. The issues that have been exposed with urbanization and siting issues seems to indicate that there is a systemic uncertainty somewhere in the area of 1-3 C, while the effect they are attempting to measure is tenths of a Celsius degree. The continuously variable attribute of the data means that there is no information from today's measurement that can add to the precision of yesterday's measurement. Similarly, there is no information from a thermometer 100 km away that can add to the precision of the measurement, even if taken at the same time.

This whole idea that we can measure trends more accurately than even the individual gage uncertainty by compiling large time series of measurements is quite simply abusing the statistics.

What appears to be happening is that they are using a set of adjustments based on a model that assumes that warming is occurring, then processing the adjusted data and finding a warming trend on the same order of magnitude as the adjustments. How that passes basic scrutiny let alone peer review is beyond my comprehension.

#3.2.1.1 Another guy named Dan on 2016-02-01 17:04 (Reply)

Another guy named Dan: The issues that have been exposed with urbanization and siting issues seems to indicate that there is a systemic uncertainty somewhere in the area of 1-3 C, while the effect they are attempting to measure is tenths of a Celsius degree.

A number of statistical studies have addressed the problem of the urban heat island effect. The trend remains after accounting for the effect.

Another guy named Dan: The continuously variable attribute of the data means that there is no information from today's measurement that can add to the precision of yesterday's measurement.

Having millions of data-points, even if spread over time and space, increases the precision compared to having fewer data-points.

Another guy named Dan: Similarly, there is no information from a thermometer 100 km away that can add to the precision of the measurement, even if taken at the same time.

While the absolute temperature may be difficult to ascertain, the temperature anomaly will still be detectable.

Another guy named Dan: This whole idea that we can measure trends more accurately than even the individual gage uncertainty by compiling large time series of measurements is quite simply abusing the statistics.

Huh? It's one of the most fundamental findings of statistical metrology.

Another guy named Dan: What appears to be happening is that they are using a set of adjustments based on a model that assumes that warming is occurring

The recent NOAA study of ocean surface temperatures is based on the empirical finding that boat measurements are warmer than modern buoy measurements.

#3.2.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-01 17:37 (Reply)

If you measure a brass rod 10 times with 10 different calipers, you will get 10 slightly different measurements. You can then average the results and get an estimate of the length that is likely to be more accurate (closer to the Platonic length of the rod) than any of the individual measurements.

If you have a process that is attempting to create 10 rods of a particular length, measuring 10 rods with the same caliper and averaging will likely produce an answer closer to the process mean of the entire population.

If you have a process that produces brass rods that vary in length by as much as 100 inches over a time span in a manner that is effectively randomized, no number of measurements of the rods coming out of the process will give more information about the length of the next rod produced than the actual measurement.

On a hyperbolic level, averaging in the temperatures in Norfolk, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and New Orleans does nothing to help mitigate the measurement bias in St. Louis.

#3.2.1.1.1.1 Another guy named Dan on 2016-02-02 10:37 (Reply)

Another guy named Dan: On a hyperbolic level, averaging in the temperatures in Norfolk, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and New Orleans does nothing to help mitigate the measurement bias in St. Louis.

If you measure a thousand places over a period of time, you can determine a statistically reliable trend, even if the error bars are greater than the trend.

#3.2.1.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2016-02-02 15:41 (Reply)

For a simple case, consider a thousand stations, with 800 showing a small positive trend, 100 showing no trend, and 100 showing a small negative trend. What are the odds that there is no actual trend, and these results are merely due to random dispersal of error?

#3.2.1.1.1.1.2 Zachriel on 2016-02-02 17:20 (Reply)

Somewhat related: Did you know that cell phone signals are below the noise floor? Yet, we can still receive clear transmissions.

#3.2.1.1.1.1.3 Zachriel on 2016-02-03 11:16 (Reply)

Whoops again! are..I give up, it's Monday.

#4 rocdoctom on 2016-02-01 12:11 (Reply)

Will I ever get it right? am

#4.1 rocdoctom on 2016-02-01 12:14 (Reply)

Just as long as you don't use something like "he and I" as the object of a preposition, I can forgive subject - verb agreement that is separated as much in your sentence... but that's just me. :-)

#4.1.1 mudbug on 2016-02-01 12:32 (Reply)

"Scientists open the ‘black box’ of schizophrenia with dramatic genetic discovery"

How much schizophrenia is "natural" and how much is caused by drug abuse?

With everyone I have known with this condition, drug abuse preceded the schizophrenia.

#5 Jim on 2016-02-01 13:01 (Reply)

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Monday, February 1. 2016

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