Italy disgraces itself before the entire world

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Thursday, October 25. 2012

Italy disgraces itself before the entire world

Tsk-tsk, Italy.

First Galileo, and now this.

As you might have heard, a court in Italy has convicted seven scientists of manslaughter because they failed to predict an earthquake that struck some village and killed a bunch of people.

People living in non-earthquake-reinforced buildings in an area known for having violent earthquakes, I might add.

I think this sums it up pretty well:

An Italian court sentenced scientists to jail time for not having a functioning crystal ball ahead of the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila. The arguments of science and reason fell on deaf ears. Rarely since a Catholic inquisition in Rome condemned Galileo Galilei to spend the remainder of his days under house arrest for the heresy of teaching that the Earth revolves around the sun has an Italian court been so wrong about science.

Today, a court in the central Italian city of L'Aquila, 380 years after that miscarriage of justice, sentenced six scientists and a government bureaucrat to six years in jail [and $10.2 million in fines] on manslaughter charges for their failure to predict a 2009 earthquake that left more than 300 people dead.

More articles on this travesty of justice, sensibility and reason:

Italian court convicts 7 scientists for failing to predict earthquake
Italian court ruling sends chill through science community
Italian scientists resign over L'Aquila quake verdicts
The deeper issues behind Italy’s conviction of earthquake scientists
Why Can’t We Predict Earthquakes?

On the up side, I'm sure Galileo will be glad for the company.

Posted by Dr. Mercury in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 12:30 | Comments (21) | Trackbacks (0)

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Safest prediction: Earthquakes will definitely occur, often unexpectedly.

Like JP Morgan when asked what the stock market would do: "It will fluctuate."

#1 Bird Dog on 2012-10-25 12:52 (Reply)

No, your CSN article does NOT sum it up pretty well. Try this for a more sensible capture of the prosecutor's position:

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html

That's not to say I agree w/ the verdict, but your mischaractierization of the trial does nothing to further sensible discussion.

I do think the two committee members who frivolously participated in the ad hoc press conference were out of line, and were the ones who should have been held accountable. Probably not manslaughter accountable, but something.

#2 DrTorch on 2012-10-25 13:03 (Reply)

"No, your CSN article does NOT sum it up pretty well."

It may not have summed up the trial well, but it certainly summed up the insanity.

"but your mischaracterization"

My mischaracterization? Crap, I included six links -- whudya want?

#2.1 Dr. Mercury (Link) on 2012-10-25 13:11 (Reply)

"insanity". That's exactly what your mischaracterization is, a mischaracterization. You'll never get answers if you ask loaded questions.

Why did they rule this way? It's not insanity, it's because you're refusing to see what they were prosecuting. Doesn't mean you'll agree with them, or you may recognize there is more to this situation than your preconceptions.

Six links parroting the same willful ignorance and cliched condescension? That's hardly meaningful.

#2.1.1 DrTorch on 2012-10-25 14:17 (Reply)

Many of those links raised the same issues you and Indyjones did. You're not bringing up anything new here.

#2.1.1.1 Dr. Mercury (Link) on 2012-10-25 14:22 (Reply)

Then you must explain why you are willfully misrepresenting all of this.

This trial was NOT about predicting earthquakes. It was about the failure of paid professionals to do proper and adequate risk assessment.

You've made a parody of all of this. So was this intentional lying on your part? Or do you just not understand things at this level of complexity?

#2.1.1.1.1 DrTorch on 2012-10-26 07:01 (Reply)

According to the articles, they did a very thorough analysis. And, as expected with such an elusive subject, came to different conclusions. As more than one of the articles noted, if they had said, "Yep, looks like the big one could be here at any moment!", do you REALLY think they would have evacuated the town? And what if they had, and no quake had arrived? Think they're going to evacuate the next time the little boy cries wolf?

This was a witch hunt, pure and simple, and for you not to recognize it either shows a remarkable idiocy on your part or you're just trolling for effect.

#2.1.1.1.1.1 Dr. Mercury (Link) on 2012-10-26 07:09 (Reply)

And you continue w/ the straw man that this was about predicting the earthquake. That's simply dishonest when you look at what got prosecuted.

"Witch hunt"? Only if you refuse to accept what really happened.

Hmmm.

#2.1.1.1.1.1.1 DrTorch on 2012-10-26 07:18 (Reply)

I have followed this for a few days over at Vox Days blog. One conversation between and engineer and a scientist mentioned that an engineer is liable for his expert advice. How many scientists are liable for their expert advice. I do believe that the scientists in this story led the people in this village to ignore any danger. The villagers normaly slept outside after earthquakes until they were fairly sure there would be no more. In this case the scientists misled them by saying there wasn't a likelyhood of another earthquake. MISTAKE!! When they give their expert opinion they are assuming risk. Maybe the climate scientists should pay attention. If your expert predictions are false you may end up paying the costs associated with wastful spending on the climate change agenda. Engineers are worth their weight in gold and are liable for their opinions. If scientists are not liable for their expert opinions then they are just a dime a dozen and really need to find a useful job.

#3 indyjonesouthere on 2012-10-25 13:04 (Reply)

My very first thought after hearing the verdict was of the warming-mongers. Entire nations are being destroyed because of what these people have spouted as fact.

String 'em up, I say. Can I borrow your lamppost?

#3.1 Dr. Mercury (Link) on 2012-10-25 13:14 (Reply)

It's the warmist attitude that caused this verdict. The whole "precautionary principle" idea leads people (including courts apparently) to believe a scientist should 1) know everything, 2) scream about impending doom and disaster if "nothing is done NOW" if there's so much as the tiniest indication that something might happen somewhere at some point in time.

#3.1.1 J.T. Wenting on 2012-10-28 01:18 (Reply)

Sounds like a new generation of witch trials

#4 duckista on 2012-10-25 13:16 (Reply)

What's really got them upset is that they can't blame the Catholic Church this time.

#5 Daniel on 2012-10-25 13:32 (Reply)

It was an appalling decision.

What's next? Prosecuting weathermen for storm deaths?

It will be interesting to see if there are ever anymore earthquake predictions for Italy?

#6 feeblemind on 2012-10-25 15:23 (Reply)

And Galileo's reply still pertains:

"Eppur, si muove."

Nonetheless, it moves.

#7 Rob De Witt on 2012-10-25 15:41 (Reply)

So if I'm reading all this correctly, the scientist should have said something like this: "We really can't tell. The buildings are 300+ years old, before building codes, and there's no way to evaluate their safety. You've been here all your lives; what do you think? It could be wisest to camp out on the uphill slopes above town."

Doc T, would you agree with this, or not?

#8 Sam L. on 2012-10-25 18:03 (Reply)

That would have been fine. Or even, "keep with your existing earthquake safety measures."

Which included leaving the buildings for significant tremors.

Instead, what was said? "Have a glass of wine. Relax." And worse, this was the sentiment of one man, not the panel consensus. But, it's what people heard b/c it was said the loudest.

So, I don't agree with the verdict. But, being dishonest about the trial does no one, including scientists, any favors.

#8.1 DrTorch on 2012-10-26 07:22 (Reply)

Didn't they make a movie about this with Pierce Brosnan?

#9 Jim on 2012-10-25 20:09 (Reply)

Nothing new, really. Folks have always been looking for "scapegoats."

In the middle ages, they blames Jews, Gypsies, and witches for their problems.

This time they found some scientists to scapegoat for their loved ones' death.

That a "court of law" went for this nonsense is what is seriously disturbing.

#10 Charles on 2012-10-26 01:13 (Reply)

If i'm defending, i'm purchasing a few of those plaster-cast copies (of the 'original' plaster casts) and seating same in the courtroom, as exhibits for the defense. Then a reading from Pliny the Younger, concerning his uncle, Pliny the Elder, whose 37 volume work on the natural sciences is the largest such surviving from antiquity, and shows the his uncle as the foremost earth scientist of the ancient world, and tells how his uncle --in his other role as district military commander --watched the disaster's early (non-lethal) events unfold for some days with no alarm issued, and indeed when the actual killing event (pyroclastic flow) began, far into the natural sequence, his uncle the expert and authority was caught in it and died.

#11 buddy larsen on 2012-10-26 14:12 (Reply)

PS --Pompeii, AD 79, Vesuvius eruption, i should mention.

But also, there's Seneca, writing only a few years earlier, and from the court of Emperor Nero, criticizing area landowners for abandoning their works in the district, on the strength of a few earthquakes here and there.

#12 buddy larsen on 2012-10-26 14:33 (Reply)

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Thursday, October 25. 2012

Italy disgraces itself before the entire world