Maggie's Farm

Knowing the odds pays off more than knowing anything else.

I've got my style of play down cold, now, after years of working on it. I've learned which types of players to deal with warily (those who bid up pots right at the start, before the flop or perhaps just after an ugly flop, represent people who are typically trying to 'buy' a pot...if you don't have the cards, take your loss and move on, don't give them anything to work with. If you do, make them pay to stay in), and who you can do some bluffing with.

Bluffs very rarely pay off. There are moments when they can. If you just won a huge pot, people tend to think you're getting hot cards. You may not be, but it's human nature to believe it. I play stronger after I've won a large pot, and it works.

But you muck so many hands, and many of them can be winners. I once finished 12th out of 90 (in the money), but mucked 5 hands that could've been big winners if I'd stuck around. You can't focus on that. You have to move on to the next hand.

I like poker because it is the ultimate game for 'seeking alpha'. Wall Streeters are notoriously good poker players. A friend of mine at a hedge fund must take part in a monthly poker tournament in-house in order to 'keep his edge'. He claims he can't win because he's up against statisticians. I point out their knowledge is powerful and gives them an edge, but if he learns how they bet, he can beat them with a few well-timed bluffs, or even soft re-raises on mediocre cards (it's amazing how often people fold on a re-raise).

But, in the end, as James Bond once said, "you don't play your cards, you play their cards." You have to know how strong your hand is, and if you don't, or you question it, then don't bet.

I disagree. Knowledge plays a huge role.

I once left a tournament early. My friends were stunned, I simply said "I didn't get the cards." It's true, that happens sometimes. But as another person pointed out "If all you did was wait for the right cards, then you didn't play your opponents well."

I knew what he meant, and spent a great deal of time continuing to hone my play. There is a tendency, particularly early on, to want to play every hand. If it were simply luck, then you should play every hand.

Fact is, knowing what your odds are gives you a tremendous edge over those who are just hoping for a lucky flop or a fortuitous river card.

I've had gut-shot straights on the flop that I've folded because I could see flushes and full houses developing. You can wind up spending too much money to keep playing only to find yourself losing to what was obvious early on.

I saw a fellow lose, on the first hand, with two pair. How he missed the obvious flush and full house that was playing out is beyond me. I guess he was relying on the 'luck' theory...

On the other hand, I once had my table practically cleared on the first deal when somebody pulled a full house, another had a flush, another had 4 of a kind while another hand a higher 4 of a kind. At that single point in time, you're absolutely right - luck played the primary role in determining the winner. Each person played out his hand assuming he had the strongest one, thinking the odds of something better were astronomically outlandish.
The odds WERE astronomically outlandish - but they happened to be there. Such is the thing known as "The Black Swan", where outlandish probability becomes reality. Yes, that's pure luck.

But on a hand by hand basis, over time, with knowledge (and an increasing/improved knowledge of how your opponent plays), you improve your chance of winning.

My last tournament ended when I took out the guy who'd been stealing my pots all night. The guy was an aggressive bettor who, no doubt, bluffed me out of at least 3 hands. But my hands were weak, the pots weren't deadly, and I was willing to walk away. On the final hand, he took this to a dangerous conclusion. He felt that his bluffs had won often enough against me, that he could do it one last time. This time, however, I was willing to play, because I knew something he didn't - I'd gotten a full house on the flop.

It should've been obvious to him, but he chose to ignore it. Skill does play a huge role.

I have counted cards, and it works very well particularly in a single deck blackjack game (which you can find almost anywhere, but you can't get rich because the bets are low and play is slow).

I've counted into multiple deck shoes before, too. But by the second hour, the speed of play and the constant calculations gave me a massive headache and I eventually gave it up and focused on the simple principles. The gains, unless you're willing to bet heavily, are very slim.

If you've ever read "Bringing Down The House", the true story of a team of counters, you can get the idea. You really need a team to make it work effectively. And that leaves you exposed.

Doing it on your own, unless you're extremely aggressive AND talented, is difficult and not worth the time.