Maggie's Farm

This afternoon I had lunch and a stroll along the ocean with a new friend, Jonathan Spyer. We struck it off immediately when he said the only organization he ever joined which he promised to obey was the Israel Defense Force. This mirrored my experience in joining the US Marine Corps. Our normally rebellious spirits matched.

Spyer was in San Diego to speak about his new book, The Transforming Fire: The Rise Of The Israel-Islamist Conflict. I’d read some reviews before, all laudatory, from the left-leaning Haaretz to the right-leaning Weekly Standard. After reading the book and talking with Spyer, although the focus is on what Israel faces and the book doesn’t delve deeply into US or European foreign policy, the book could have just as easily been sub-titled The Rise of the Western-Islamist Conflict But What Israel Realizes And The West Doesn’t.

Spyer’s motivation for writing the book was being blown out of the tank he was driving in the 2006 war in Lebanon, a draw that was poorly prepared for, poorly conceived, poorly executed but required the utmost – which was given – of soldiers on the ground. Spyer wanted to explore in depth what Israel is facing. Again we clicked, I having similar motivation after my tours in Vietnam.

Spyer brings to his book much more than being a frontline soldier, or his travels throughout the Middle East, or his fascinating return to Lebanon after the 2006 war. British-born Spyer has a PhD in Middle East politics from the London School of Economics, and served in the Israel Prime Minister’s Office. What makes his book interesting and not dry is his weaving of his personal experiences and observations into his learned descriptions of Middle East Politics.

At lunch, Spyer acknowledged that the current state of affairs in the Middle East is more negative than when he wrote the book. The “Arab Spring” unleashed violent animus toward Israel that is encouraged and supported by Iran, toppling formerly controlling, hostile but more benign toward Israel rulers in Egypt and Tunisia. Iran seeks to align a bloc with Hamas in control of Gaza, Hezbollah in control of Lebanon, and Syria as a client state of Iran as a funnel of training, arms and missiles to Hamas and Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia is comparatively weaker, as are Sunnis right now, but struggling to counter Iran’s Shia influence. For now, Iraq is slipping into Iran’s orbit, largely due to Iran’s cat’s paw there,  Muqtada al-Sadr’s influence on the dominant Shia coalition in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, the US is withdrawing from its former predominance in the Middle East, and Europe continues pursuing its mostly economic interests there.

That leaves Israel with the question of how to survive. Among militant Islamists is the illusion that Israel is ultimately doomed due to its smaller population and adherence to values and institutions less militant than theirs. On the contrary, Spyer points out, Israel is relatively militarily and financially stronger than ever. More important, Israel’s population has largely moved past its former Ashkenazic and Sephardic divisions, or its left-right divisions, and through common experience with failed hopes and ruthless adversaries molded a more united and nationalistic leadership and purpose. Remnants of the old left are still common in academia and media but depend on the attention they are granted by Western media although their internal influence is otherwise negligible.

Longer term, Spyer is optimistic. As Spyer ends his book, and still believes:

In all these areas, the challenges are immense. Nevertheless, eventual success is likely. Iran and its allies suffer from the fundamental problem that they cannot produce societies in which people want to live. Rather, they create immensely repressive internal arrangements, coupled with and endless repeat of acts of military theater, which then brings down retribution and suffering on the populations they control. The anger and sense of humiliation that they are focusing on is real. But once it becomes clear that they are not in fact able to bring the victory, they are likely to decline.

In the meantime, Israel must strike hard when necessary. Otherwise, patience is needed in the Middle East cold war with Islamists. Israel may pay harsh prices along the way, but an Iran-led Islamist encirclement will erode first. I’m reminded of our protracted conflict with the Soviet Union and all’s surprise when its walls fell.

What will follow, I asked Spyer. Most likely some sort of military-commercial elite regimes, like before, still hostile toward Israel and the West, still mired in backwardness, but a lesser threat to Israel. The transforming fire is a crucible in which weaknesses are revealed and the product strengthened. The ultimately stronger is Israel’s abilities and resolve based on Western values that too many in the West have abandoned.