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Tuesday, February 1. 2011

Painful Truths

I'm with Ralph Peters on this, "Denial On The Nile." And, it will ripple through other monarchies. Better get prepared, and nudge them to, or get run over instead of ahead. -- Still, one must consider what will happen, as Barry Rubin does. Yet, Mubarak is toast. The Egyptian army will be the balance, but only if -- longer term and a BIG if -- not emasculated as in Turkey. -- Ed Morrissey adds some sense.
Posted by Bruce Kesler at 12:23 | Comments (8) | Trackbacks (0)

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I hope Peters is right. I really hope this doesn't go the way of the Iranian Revolution (the last one not the one they are repressing right now).

Hopefully the army can run thigns for a while and organize real elections in an orderly fashion.
#1 NJSoldier on 2011-02-01 13:36 (Reply)
We need to look back to the colonial era for good models. A firm line in dealing with the Arab/muslim world is in order. Correct, fair but no weakness. We no longer have to contend with widespread soviet trouble making (the Chinese are not a dedicated to it), so it may be easier.

We do need to get the Europeans/Japanese/Koreans on board so no one will do an endrun. The middle east will blow up if there is a sense that no one will stop them. Obamas feelgood tours of the Muslim world just fanned the flames.
#2 DirtyJobsGuy on 2011-02-01 14:35 (Reply)
" I really hope this doesn't go the way of the Iranian Revolution"

I greatly fear it will, and worse.
What we see here is the beginning of a Great Islamic State stretching from the Red Sea to the Atlantic, bordered on the south by the Sahara.
Expect Tunisia and Egypt to be the start, but Lybia to fall quickly.
After that, Syria and ultimately Morocco will be ripe for the picking, and the countries merge under the green and black banners of Jihad.
#3 J.T. Wenting on 2011-02-01 16:49 (Reply)
This is a major catastrophe in US foreign policy. Ultimately, it leads to an Islamist middle east, abandonment by our former allies, and another world war. It could very likely lead to the destruction if Israel.

Yes, it's really that bad. The Obama administration has utterly failed us. It's not as bad as it looks, it's worse.
#4 ahem on 2011-02-01 21:32 (Reply)
Bruce Kesler:
The Egyptian army will be the balance, but only if -- longer term and a BIG if -- not emasculated as in Turkey.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

The army in Turkey isn't emasculated - it's just been pushed back by an increasingly Islamic population.

The real parallel between Egypt and Turkey is that in both cases there was/is a prosperous, educated middle class that wanted Western-style democracy - but they were/will be swamped by the Islamicized poorer masses.

Who is to blame for these outcomes?

1. Secular Arabs themselves, for not pushing for more widespread reforms and educational opportunities. Many such people were happy to ignore the poor and make money based on "connections."

2. The West, for not linking aid and trade to democratic changes. Now the rioters associate the West with the oligarchs that we propped up all these years, instead of thinking favorably about Western-style governance.
#5 Ben David on 2011-02-02 00:56 (Reply)
Sorry but isn't the problem with our concepts of what they want and need the real problem? An educated middle class that wants a democratic process is different than saying people want western style democracy.
The reality is that American style democracy leaves the poor poorer. We see in the US that 65% of the wealth goes to 1% of the population, unless you live there it is difficult to believe that people want that. I am not saying that democracy does not work, but what we have here in NA is not the democracy that oppressed people want, this is just another form of oppression under the banner of corporate glitter.
Western style democracy has backed Egypt every step of the way here. I am shocked that people would not see the connection between supporting a harsh dictator-like political structure and the poor people’s lack of trust in what they (americans) determine to be the best course of action for all peoples (democracy).
I am a fan of pure democracy, what the people want. If Hamas wins, good, if Hezbollah wins, good, if some theocratic ruler takes over in Egypt and is voted in, good. Democracy is choice, not telling people what is best for them (and yourself)
#6 Brian on 2011-02-02 19:19 (Reply)
"I am a fan of pure democracy, what the people want. If Hamas wins, good, if Hezbollah wins, good, if some theocratic ruler takes over in Egypt and is voted in, good. Democracy is choice, not telling people what is best for them (and yourself)"
Noble. Except that with Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, there isn't another election allowed to vote them out, and they obey the will of the people.
#7 Bruce Kesler on 2011-02-02 20:04 (Reply)
Come now Bruce, isn't another election? What is the difference outside of external gov't appeasement in having elections if they are corrupt and manipulated (like Egypt's last election )? Apparently freedom is only good if it works with super powers. If the brotherhood is elected in and doesn't hold another election. Will it change anything over there? Or in time when the people are fed up with it will they then react and revolt as they are doing now? I'd rather see no democracy over fake democracy.
Watching Obummer give Mubarak the ultimatum of "Now" is a joke...how can the people of the world look to the stars and stripes as anything but a over developed bully intent on securing it's interests at the cost of civilian lives and "freedoms".
#7.1 Brian on 2011-02-03 12:32 (Reply)

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