Maggie's Farm

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) says that “"every state is now in play” in November, even heavily liberal California, as the upset in bluest Massachusetts demonstrates. I think able politician  Boxer doth protest too much and is actually trying to get California Democrats revved up early, which Coakley failed to do in Massachusetts.

Boxer’s seat is, actually, safer than the “Ted Kennedy” seat proved to be.  The percentage of Independent registrations is much lower than in Massachusetts, and the percent of Democrat registrations much higher -- 44% Dem, 31% Rep, 20% Indep vs about 50% registered  Independent in Mass.

The percentage of safe Democrat voters among Hispanics is higher in California than Mass.,32% versus 6.8%.  Although Israel was not a prominent issue in the Massachusetts election, it may be in California due to the presently leading Rep primary contender, Tom Campbell, having an unfriendly attitude toward Israel, which will sway pro-Israel moderates away from him.

Boxer has already amassed a much bigger warchest than the Republican contenders, and the one Republican – Carly Fiorina -- whose personal wealth may offset that is currently less favored among Reps in early polls. Boxer now has $7-million and Fiorina has only $2.5 million mostly “loaned” from herself.  In 2004, Boxer raised about $20 million, her well thought of Rep opponent about $6 million.  Her re-election victory margin, 20%, was double Kerry’s in California. 2010 will be a much more expensive election race.

Lastly, the national media and wireservices, which are given prominence in even the more moderate San Diego and Sacramento newspapers, and certain featuring in the liberal L.A. and San Francisco newspapers which have much larger populations, will be highlighting every sign of economic rebound in 2010 and downplaying Obama national security blunders, compared to downplaying economic portents and pounding the successful Bush measures on national security when Republican incumbents seek re-election.

None of this is to say that Boxer can’t be beat.  But, it is very premature and overly optimistic to bet on it. The San Diego Union-Tribune editorial this morning paints a positive calculation.  It’ll take much more than that, tremendous focus with a terrific candidate backed by big money, none of which seems in prospect, for California next November to turn out the Senate’s most liberal and obnoxious member from California.

Some good news: Today's US Supreme Court decision striking down some limitations in campaign finance laws are predicted to help corporations to contribute more; unions already are pretty maxed out.  But, corporations are not as partisan as unions, and more leery in making contributions due to fears of being attacked in the press and by unions.