Maggie's Farm

The price of oil will have significantly greater influence on biofuels than is implied, I think.

Mostly because oil is a pretty big input to most modern agriculture. So the cost of biofuels will soar with the cost or scarcity of natural petroleum.

Secondly, because to the best of my knowledge, the debate whether biofuels consumes more energy than it produces hasn't been adequately answered. Something that loses $1/bbl isn't a better deal when it loses $2/bbl. One of the major raw materials for fertilizer is natural gas. Big diesel tractors, harveters, and combines don't run on faith. And the energy density of alcohol isn't as good as pure hydrocarbons ... it's already partially oxidized (burnt).

My take on biofuels is that they're a trendy product, meant more for PR than real impact. They may partially help energy independence, but probably at a cost.

And by diverting traditional food crops into a fuel, the "law" of economics says that prices of food will increase. That's one of those natural behavioral things that politics can't change, without the law of unintended consequences taking over.