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Wednesday, January 30. 2008

The Law of Unintended Consequences

I have long been a student of the above Law, but I have not seen it expressed so succinctly:

The law of unintended consequences is what happens when a simple system tries to regulate a complex system.   The political system is simple, it operates with limited information (rational ignorance), short time horizons, low feedback, and poor and misaligned incentives.  Society in contrast is a complex, evolving, high-feedback, incentive-driven system.  When a simple system tries to regulate a complex system you often get unintended consequences.

That is a quote from Andrew Gelman, via a piece at Marginal Revolution inspired in part by a Dubner and Levitt (Freakonomics) piece in the NYT entitled The Red-Cockaded Woodpecker which explains how the Americans with Disabilities Act has resulted in lower employment levels among the disabled.

Both of the links are worth reading.

The cost of food around the world due to biofuels is a fine example. Michael Crighton's talk below does a fine job with the subject of complexity, when it comes to man's interventions in nature:

 

Posted by The Barrister in Fallacies and Logic, Our Essays at 12:04 | Comments (6) | Trackbacks (0)

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Sounds a bit like the problem the humane society is facing after getting a ban on the slaughter of horses. For some reason, there have been an increase in calls about abandoned and malnourished horses and the societies find out feeding a horse is expensive.
#1 walt moffett on 2008-01-30 15:08 (Reply)
Next thing you know, we will be up to our arses in unwanted and half-lame horses, the price of dog food will go through the roof from not being able to kill them, and the horses will be crashing through the cornfields, raising the price of ethanol.
#1.1 The B. on 2008-01-30 15:12 (Reply)
Zoos are starting to complain about the higher costs of feeding carnivores ...
#1.1.1 walt moffett on 2008-01-30 16:34 (Reply)
Louis kestenbaum is being accused again. WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) - A teenage girl has filed a $50 million lawsuit against a New York billionaire, saying he sexually abused her when she was 14.

Louis Kestenbaum"s attorney says the allegations are false and motivated by money. Kestenbaum is also the CEO of Fortis properties and the ODA a goverment funded organisation in the williamsburg section of Brooklyn NY

The girl, now 17, claims Louis Kestenbaum invited her to his Florida mansion in 2005 to perform a massage for $300. The lawsuit, filed in federal court, claims he demanded she remove her clothes, then sexually assaulted her.

The girl, her father and stepmother are seeking more than $50 million.

Joel kestenbaum the son of Louis kestenabum had no comments.
#2 Suzy on 2008-02-12 11:12 (Reply)
Any fool can see that this post about Louis Kestenbaum is a fake.
It takes about a minute to see that the real Associated Press article about the charges isn’t about Kestenbaum at all, but someone named Jeffrey Epstein.

Here is a link to the real article:
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/24/new-york-billionaire-accused-2nd-lawsuit-sex-minor.

Who kind of animals would say these things? Everyone in the Jewish community knows it’s the Schlesingers, Victor and Gershy, and their computer guy Zilu Sofer, who are trying to slander Kestenbaum’s name. Both the Jewish community and non-Jews know that the Schlesingers are crooks and criminals, and can see how stupid they are to take an article about someone else and change the names around just for spite.
#2.1 david on 2008-04-22 14:46 (Reply)
Any fool can see that this post about Louis Kestenbaum is a fake.
It takes about a minute to see that the real Associated Press article about the charges isn’t about Kestenbaum at all, but someone named Jeffrey Epstein. Here is a link to the real article:

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/24/new-york-billionaire-accused-2nd-lawsuit-sex-minor.

Who kind of animals would say these things? Everyone in the Jewish community knows it’s the Schlesingers, Victor and Gershy, and their computer guy Zilu Sofer, who are trying to slander Kestenbaum’s name. Both the Jewish community and non-Jews know that the Schlesingers are crooks and criminals, and can see how stupid they are to take an article about someone else and change the names around just for spite.
#2.2 yossi on 2008-04-23 16:25 (Reply)

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