Maggie's Farm

We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.

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Monday, March 16. 2020

More on the virus statistics, and Yellow Journalism


As we posted yesterday, they are probably all wrong. A very few people fall seriously ill (mainly but not entirely the frail elderly). The US has been fortunate, thus far. Hospitals are not overtaxed at all. Things could change, but the virus has been here for months.


 The Coronavirus Fatality Rate Reported by the Media Is COMPLETELY INACCURATE. The Actual Rate Is LESS THAN THE FLU


 Dr. Oz: ‘A Lot of People Had This and Didn’t Realize It. 80% Had Very Subtle Symptoms’


Europe seems to have a special problem with this. I do not know why. Blame their government public health and government medical care, or just bad luck? I go for the latter. Disease humbles humanity and always has.

Posted by Dr. Joy Bliss in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 19:14 | Comments (23) | Trackbacks (0)

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This is a mathematical mistake. This is like comparing a completed season of basketball to the first five minutes of a basketball game. Gee we had 10,000 goals last year and so far this year on 10 goals. The stats on this virus is doubling every 5-7 days. To look at it today and compare it with an entire year of a different illness is ludicrous. Today Italy had something like 276 deaths and this is in a tiny region not the entire country. The experts are saying that we are two weeks behind Italy in the progress of covid19. In two weeks we 'could' have a death rate 4 times what it is today. In two more weeks it 'could' be 16 times more than today. To ignore this possibility is a failure in basic math. Will it happen exactly like that??? We don't know. But if it does what next do we say to downplay this risk? Do we start comparing it with the black plague?

I have been to Italy but I know no one who lives there today. But when I watched that video of page after page of death notices it made me want to cry. Those are real people who really died and they probably all were feeling great two weeks ago. We need to take this serious.
#1 Anon on 2020-03-16 19:25 (Reply)
Our host is a quintessential boomer. Completely blind to what doesn't affect them immediately and personally.

There are good reasons why they are so hated.
#1.1 davidh on 2020-03-16 19:40 (Reply)
Who's our "host"?
#1.1.1 Erasmus on 2020-03-16 20:55 (Reply)
If by "our host" you mean the people who run this blog I want to express my thanks to them. This is the first blog I read everyday and it is always interesting. Those who host this blog are good people and that is obvious to anyone who reads it regularly. Most of those who post comments here are interesting and have good and often informative comments. I learn here daily. Thank you sincerely for your efforts and entertainment. I enjoy the discussions on exercise and travel. I like the fact that people can post something here without it being deleted or edited because it doesn't agree with our hosts. So again to MF thank you and please keep it up.
#1.1.2 Anon on 2020-03-17 19:09 (Reply)
My son is in Italy, at Naples. It's bad there (over 3K cases today), but they're starting to turn the corner. He predicts the US is about 2 weeks behind Italy in the infection and death rates. The Lombardy area (most seriously affected) is supposed to be pretty wealthy, with good health care.

We're familiar with flu deaths. Not with this variety.

Currently, we simply don't know if the measures we are taking and our health care system's response will flatten the bell curves of illness and death to a "tolerable" level or not...whatever that is.

The reporting has been perplexing, but a lot of that has to do with the unknowns, and, likely, some anti-Trump media.

My regular "go to" web sites and information sources are very conflicted, simply because no one yet knows how bad the impact will be...one person infecting .7, 1.0, 3.0 or 23.
#1.2 Mark (Link) on 2020-03-16 23:38 (Reply)
OK. I have a simple question. The flu last year killed 10's of thousands. How many seriously ill people who were dying from the flu last year were turned away from hospitals and allowed to die because of a lack of respiratory therapy? Or put another way did those thousands of people die from our inability to treat them? That is what they are dying from today. Italy doesn't have enough medical staff and equipment to treat these seriously ill people and they are letting them die. Did we do that with the flu too??? Asking for a friend.
#2 Saul on 2020-03-16 19:44 (Reply)
The NewNeo.com has a blog entry on this today that is quite good, I recommend you read it for some insight.
#2.1 Aggie on 2020-03-16 21:38 (Reply)
The link. please?
#2.1.1 Rumaggi on 2020-03-17 04:38 (Reply)
The source?
#2.1.2 Rumaggi on 2020-03-17 04:40 (Reply)
You'll have to figure out how to put this into the correct format for your browser, or just google it - Maggies doesn't allow the full URL to be posted. thenewneo.com/2020/03/16/the-point-of-all-those-draconian-rules-mitigation/#comments
#2.1.2.1 Aggie on 2020-03-17 10:10 (Reply)
I always marvel at the way people assess risk. In particular, the different attitudes towards controllable vs uncontrollable risk.

About 40,000 people a year are killed on the highways and almost no one even bats an eye. That's because the risk is controllable, or at least is believed to be. We haven't been killed driving yet. It always happens to the other guy. We are careful/better drivers and we don't plan to have an accident today. Therefore there is no need to ban cars. We are comfortable living with the risk.

Coronavirus is an uncontrollable risk. If 40,000 people die over the course of the year a lot of people will be running in circles with their hair on fire, screaming hysterically. The difference is no one has any say in whether or not they are infected. It's a risk they are aware of but can't see. For whatever reason the human brain tends to react irrationally towards uncontrollable risks. I blame it on a lack of scientific understanding and an inability to calculate odds.
#3 feeblemind on 2020-03-16 20:29 (Reply)
Probably somewhere around half the people killed in auto accidents are the result of drugs, alcohol and illegal acts like driving without a license, speeding, driving recklessly etc. A lot of that can be avoided. I avoid driving in cities at night and driving at all Friday and Saturday nights. To compare this with the virus it's kind of like washing your hands and not touching your face. It's preventative. Most of the rest of the accidents are not as avoidable but some can still be mitigated by good driving habits and experience that allows you to avoid risk. like safe following distance, looking ahead, identifying bad driving and avoiding them, etc. I actually feel very in control with my driving and intentionally drive defensively and with awareness. I wish it were as easy to deal with this virus.
#3.1 OneGuy on 2020-03-16 20:56 (Reply)
Maybe so. Maybe not. But quoting Mehmet Oz is ridiculous. He is a quacksalver of the worst sort.
#4 Jon Pananaaas on 2020-03-16 22:50 (Reply)
China has a population about 4x as large as the USA. 1.5 Billion ?
Wuhan is a city of some 11 million people, think NYC.
Number of cases in China was around 88,000 with 3,200 deaths
3200/88000= 3.6% death rate
But.. 11 million people, 88,000 cases
88,000/11,000,000 = 0.008 -or- 0.8% of population was infected

There is something wrong with these numbers, given what I've read about this virus. In addition, how is it possible for China to not have other infection centers around the country, how can it be Wuhan only?
#5 Riick on 2020-03-16 22:57 (Reply)
I've said this before, and will say it again.

Italians are old. The median age in Italy is about 47, around 9 years older than the US median age. About one quarter of Italians are over 65. Regardless of the overall death rate it's pretty well established that C19 kills people over 60 at much higher rates than under 60.

Italy also has about one-third the ICU beds per population that the US does, so I expect the general medical infrastructure is similarly lower.

More people getting sicker with less resources to deal with the situation.
#6 Christopher B on 2020-03-17 06:36 (Reply)
Italians are old, they smoke a lot, and their health care system is apparently not that great and has far less capacity on a per capita basis — wait, socialized medicine has a downside?!

People need to stop comparing the US to Italy as if they are identical situations. They are clearly not, in ways that are highly relevant to this discussion.
#6.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-17 09:37 (Reply)
There must be some statistics somewhere that compare the current state of this virus (infections, spread worldwide, deaths) to the similar point on the timeline of swine flu back in 2009. We are reacting like this is MUCH worse (and maybe it is), but we don't really have anything to compare it to.
I've read some stuff that this is all the media's way of being negative about Trump. But the entire world is also reacting (over-reacting?) as well.
#7 bk on 2020-03-17 07:22 (Reply)
The figure I keep hearing quoted is an incubation period of 4-10 days. If this is working, since we started all the enhanced precautions really go into effect Saturday, today is the day we should see the new infection rate start to bend. It may be imperceptible for about 3 days. but if It doesn't start happening, then it's time to review if all this is worth it.
#8 Another Guy named Dan on 2020-03-17 08:53 (Reply)
One doctor on Twitter says 5 days incubation. But yeah.

And I’ll go out on a limb right now: it’s not worth it.
#8.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-17 09:30 (Reply)
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

This is known as "bad luck".

-Heinlein
#9 Fred Z on 2020-03-17 11:32 (Reply)
.
TANSTAAFL
.
#9.1 Riick on 2020-03-17 20:49 (Reply)
If you could extend your life by ten years by bankrupting 10 hourly paid workers would you take the deal?
#10 Whatever on 2020-03-17 22:29 (Reply)
Isn't that what Obama and the Democrats did in 2009?
#10.1 Emu on 2020-03-18 10:32 (Reply)

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