Maggie's Farm

The other day, our esteemed editor made this statement in one of his posts.  It was a good post, though I don't agree with much of the bias in it (Dalio is very intelligent, and quite successful, so his working model explains much of why he can be successful, though it's certainly not a good explanation of how economic cycles operate).

I happen to agree with Bird Dog's statement, too.  But I believe economists often do themselves a disservice.  Usually it's the economists who make predictions about macroeconomic outlooks which do this.  By and large, it's the economists with Progressive tendencies.  Though certainly some in the Republican camp get a bit outrageous.

I'm fond of saying economists can't make predictions, nor should they.  They should offer scenarios.  That's what I tend to do.  Options of potential outcomes.  Economics involves far too many variables to be a predictive science, though the basic rules can explain many things we see quite well, and that's what science is for.

To better understand economists and economics, perhaps this would help.