From Higher Education: The Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong:
Individuals with a lot of intelligence and drive are, overwhelmingly, drawn to college, but it is their intelligence and drive that brings about their later success, not the fact that they passed enough courses to get the credits necessary for a degree. John Mackey of Whole Foods, for example, took a number of college courses before dropping out to concentrate on his business. He would be no more successful if he had earned his degree, or less successful if he hadn’t ever taken a single course.
On the other hand, we lure great numbers of young Americans into college these days with the idea that by getting their degree, they’ll enjoy a large earnings boost. A figure that is often, carelessly thrown around is the million dollar earnings premium for college grads.\
The problem is that, increasingly, high school graduates do not have even the most basic academic tools – they don’t read well, don’t write well, and can’t do basic math – and also expect that college will be like high school, only more fun. Any increase in college enrollment will overwhelmingly come from such academically marginal students. Going to college rarely transforms those disengaged kids into highly productive adults.