Maggie's Farm

First of all, polling in Turkey is less reliable than in the US, where polls also often get it wrong. Basically, Erdogan effectively framed the key issue as “reform” for greater civil liberties, and the opposition was less effective in framing the dangers of Erdogan’s party “packing” the heretofore independent judiciary, the last bastion restraining Erdogan’s ambitions. As an example of ineptitude, Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, didn’t vote since he didn’t know where to cast his ballot.

What does the change to the judiciary mean?

Although the military is now  subject to civilian courts and their oversight, the very composition of those courts is fraught with controversy.  Among the amendments passed was expanding the nation’s Constitutional Court’s membership (roughly their Supreme Court) to 17 people versus its current 11.  Another clause expands the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors – the institution regulating who serves in Turkey’s judiciary – from 7 to 22 members.  A significant number of the expanded personnel will be chosen by the parliament – currently dominated by Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AKP) party and the nation’s President, Abdullah Gul, who co-founded AKP along with Erdogan.  This can be interpreted as a needed dilution of heretofore secularist bastions, but it basically amounts to an institutional power grab by Mr. Erdogan and his ilk.

What does this portend?

Politically-speaking it’s a big victory for the Prime Minister.  General elections are scheduled next year and the opposition looks weak, if not inept.  He has effectively scuttled the secularist-dominated military and judicial power bases under the auspices of greater “Democratization”, paving the way to enact his own agenda. September 12, 2010 might be marked as the day Kemal Ataturk’s 87 year old secularist vision effectively ended, and a new Islamist-influenced era began.

Have we, the US, “lost” Turkey?

Turkey was not ours to lose. Although a member of NATO, NATO is not what it once was, and Turkey’s membership now less important. Further, Turkey enjoys a thriving economy, particularly welcome in the rural areas, so there is not great discontent. Erdogan now says he will move forward to rewrite the entire constitution. One hopeful outcome may be movement toward a more federalized structure, particularly to provide more autonomy for the Kurd 20% of the population, ending the civil war. That would also serve Erdogan’s aim to further reduce the prominence of the more secular than he Turkish military.

The secular days of Turkey are over, or coming to an end.  Seeking to extend its neo-Ottoman influence, Erdogan has forged alliances of convenience with more radical Middle East countries. Still, there are differences among them, which as Middle East history tells us are often divisive. So, the US has to stay energetically engaged with Turkey, although more forthrightly expressing our own disagreements and interests.

P.S.: Kesler adds this link to Turkey: Worry