Counting Coup Before the Battle for the Court

"Here comes the blind commissioner, they've got him in a trance,
one hand is tied to the tight-rope walker, the other is in his pants."

Yes, it's about Desolation Row.

Indian braves, in inter-tribal warfare, found glory in counting coup – demonstrating that they could kill, without killing. Like Mountain Sheep butting heads. But when it came down to protecting their buffalo land, things got bloody quick.

Since the election, we have seen the Dems probing, posturing, testing, lining up their moderate Repubs, and counting coup, in preparation for the big war for which they are girding themselves – the battle for at least two seats on the Supreme Court. Nothing in DC can be viewed outside of that context.

And never underestimate the destructive impulses of the weak and the small.

The Condi hearings were part of it. The Bolton thing is another. I have no doubt that Mr. Bolton is a hard-ass, and pro-American. Two strong points in his favor. But the Bolton thing isn’t about Bolton – it’s about demonstrating the power to deny Bush his appointees. Everyone knows the UN is a Sacred Joke - that ain't news.

And everyone in DC knows full well that Frist was playing a game of poker with his nuclear option - it was obvious. It was always meant to be an empty threat and a bluff, and he got called on his bluff. Suddenly, now, he either has to go forward or go backwards. Bad poker player – doctors always are. They have a native tendency for trust which doesn't work in DC, even when the trusting try to be sneaky. Decent folks can't pull it off. He had never intended to go through with it – it would have been a disaster in the Senate. He will now try to quietly retreat while appearing as if he isn't, but he got hurt because he was a schlemiel. He tried to be crafty, but he got out-maneuvered by the big boys like Chuckie Shumer, with Hillary in the wings, doing the hard math and the mafioso work: two Real Greasy Men with sharp elbows and minimal conscience who know the difference between a schlemiel and a schlemozle.

It's a game for this kind of people, I am sorry to say. It is no longer a sport for well-bred gentlemen who respect their opponents with good cheer and and sporting manners - not that it ever was. Honest folk need not apply: "I'm a politician, meaning I'm a cheat and a liar. When I'm not kissing babies, I'm stealing their lollipops." (Hunt for Red October)

 But the Repubs – not Frist - could win the long game by losing the hand, and I suspect that is part of the calculus. Filibustering judicial nominees is a double-edged sword, or a double-edged nuclear weapon. Now that it has become “acceptable” for routine use, it will be used much more in the future by Repubs – and they may need it in time – maybe sooner than Repubs want to imagine. The gamble was hedged in that way. Karl Rove ain’t stupid and wouldn’t endorse an unhedged bet. But Frist gets to be the shmuck in the game, and he should suffer because of the impaired judgement in going public by showing a very weak hand of cards.

For the time being, the Dems have won the skirmish by playing rope-a-dope with Frist in the classic Cassius Clay manner. They succeeded in roping a dope and have made the super-majority requirement acceptable for judicial nominees, and for who-knows what else. Maybe everything. Frist blew it big-time, thinking he was clever. Pride goeth before a fall.

 
But these things are all minor skirmishes as the main battle looms on the horizon. Thanks to poor and arrogant calculations, the Repubs enter the battlefield weakened. There will be blood on the saddle and blood running on the prairie. It’s a damn shame and it didn’t have to be this way. We will have open warfare, with too much at stake, and tainted by the desperation of the resentful, weak but emboldened Leftys that remain. All because of pure stupidity and arrogance. At least this is what it looks like to me now. I hope I'm wrong, and there's still a little time for the bluff to work...

You couldn’t run a business this way.