Maggie's Farm

Without being able to link things properly, I feel a bit hog-tied here. However, this is fun: Bayes’ Theorem and Bullshit - https://johnhorgan.org/cross-check/bayes-theorem-and-bullshit?format=amp.

 Embedded in Bayes’ theorem is a moral message: If you aren’t scrupulous in seeking alternative explanations for your evidence, the evidence will just confirm what you already believe. Even more simply: Doubt yourself. Scientists often fail to heed this dictum, which helps explains why so many scientific claims turn out to be erroneous. Bayesians claim their methods can help scientists overcome confirmation bias and produce more reliable results, but I have my doubts.