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Monday, October 3. 2022
Monday morning links
Autism, Bettelheim, and Covid - How she lost trust in the experts: I Have Been Through This Before
Commenter on a piece on California youth:
Then they came for “Dilbert”…; STEM academics defending the indefensible as ‘recalibration’
Victor Davis Hanson: The Thinnest Veneer Of Civilization Remains
Here come the Hispanic Republicans. Latinos are voting exactly like an earlier wave of immigrants
Cue hankie clutchers: Gov DeSantis reminds looters FL is a 2d Amendment state
Lessons learned from Ian
HOW’S Fetterman Doing?
His health doesn't matter
Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 07:24 | Comments (21) | Trackbacks (0)
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I have to laugh at Leftists calling DeSantis racist for his comment regarding looters - DeSantis didn't say a thing about race yet they leapt from "looters" to "blacks", as if who else could he be talking about? We all know who the looters are, don't we? Who's the racist here?
The Nordstream explosions
Article that provides a persuaive argument that the pipeline explosions were not sabatoge but caused by incompetent Russian management, maintenance and negligence.
I would put some Pinocchios on that one, I think. It is possible to have defects in manufacturing processes. But it's highly unlikely. Since Russia doesn't have the capability to lay pipelines, they would have contracted the pipelay from western services. When the steel is formed at the mill, it's inspected, each and every foot, and pieces of it are tested to destruction to determine true ultimate strength. These pipelines would have been about 1.5" thick, from what I've read, and they're concrete coated (to keep them from floating). The pipelay ship is an assembly line, where sections are moved from the hull to the center line of the ship and added to the pipeline as it is laid our the back. As each section of pipe is welded on the pipelay ship, they inspect the welds right there on board, using multiple methods to ensure the welds are flawless. Usually the welding itself is computer-controlled. Then after it's in place, the whole pipeline would have been inspected from the inside, end-to-end using an intelligent pig, before commissioning it. In summary, the whole enterprise is so expensive (10's of billions $), they wouldn't fail to inspect it thoroughly. Right now about $350 million worth of inventory is boiling out of the breaches.
Destruction of the line is almost certainly at the hand of man, and in my view, probably remotely done after a waiting period to escape the obvious surveillance connections. But a US Navy ship was within 30 klicks of the pipeline some weeks ago, and it just happened to have a contingent of Special Ops on board, and several of its helicopters made passes over the pipeline location, coincidentally where the breaches are now bubbling away. If true, it was an extremely reckless act, an act of war by any definition, take your choice: War on the EU, who will suffer from loss of supply for at least one winter, and war on Russia. The idea that is circulating, that Russia did it themselves is absurd. How many of their own warships have they intentionally sunk, then? Losing the lines costs too much to remedy and removes too many negotiating options and diplomatic & strategic advantages for it to have ever been self-inflicted.
It's more than defects. Some knowledgeable people have explained that when a NG pipeline is shut down that as the gas cools a "plug" of moisture and gas can form that can be very difficult to deal with. Then in the event that one side of the pipeline is full DE pressured whil the other side remains pressured that as that "plug" begins to unfreeze it will suddenly take off propelled by the pressure and when it hits a bend in the pipeline it ruptures it. This appears to be where the rupture is located AND coincides with the shutdown or depressurization of the pipeline. There is more to learn, we still don't know all the facts.
That would mean that the pipeline is in conditions of temperature and pressure that would put it into the phase envelope of gas hydrate formation. Is it? I am betting, 'no'. Plus, a hydrate plug, or any plug in general, would not induce conditions for over-pressure burst nor failure from fluid hammering. I read the article and the guy is just running his imagination to extremely unlikely things. Pipelines like all petroleum infrastructure, are built with safety factors that are in multiples of expected conditions. Plus, the pipelines (I and II) haven't been down there long enough to be having maintenance issues like corrosion. When stacked against the probability they were blown up for strategic reasons, the 'natural causes' scenarios are probabalistically, vanishingly small. Not a pipeline engineer, but have managed closely around pipeline projects before as a driller, and just my two cents. I think Biden blew them up. Our NATO allies are facing a rough winter and economic strangulation because of it, and don't think they don't know it.
Thanks for the explanation, Aggie.
#184.108.40.206.1 feeblemind on 2022-10-03 11:56 (Reply)
This location is quite foreign to most Americans but it is in fact the busiest sea lane in the world. There are hundreds of ships and numerous governments coast guard and military ships in this area. You literally can't fart without someone noticing. How do you effectively and secretly blow up pipelines far enough below the surface that frogmen cannot reach it? THEN you do it again 23 hours later??? THAT would be incredibly stupid ! If you are going to blow two pipelines up in the middle of the busiest sea lane in the word with tens of military and coast guard ships watching you do them both at the same time and get the hell out of dodge. Nothing about the theory of the U.S. doing this makes any sense in any context and is likely virtually impossible. All of the conspiracy theories about this ignore as in the conspiracists are ignorant of how busy this sea lane is. You would literally be sitting at the doorstep of over half a dozen countries each of which is zealously watching every ship and every movement.
I do not know how this happened. Until I know for sure my opinion and everyone else's opinion is pure speculation. Right now I am only looking for facts.
#220.127.116.11.2 OneGuy on 2022-10-03 12:11 (Reply)
You're right about it all being conjecture. But, as I mentioned the US Navy had a ship in the nearby vicinity about a month ago. The depths (80m) are well within the reach of saturation divers, but more importantly, surveillance of this region, however busy, is limited by satellites and undersea transponders for noise. Explosive charges can be laid by autonomous undersea drones - they now use them commercially for subsea survey and reconnaissance work, and the military's capabilities are far greater. Lay charges.....wait for a few weeks...detonate either remotely or automatically, as timed. Presto!
#18.104.22.168.2.1 Aggie on 2022-10-03 12:44 (Reply)
That would be the USS Kearsarge. A huge ship. Not a good choice for a clandestine operation. Not only were the nine European countries bordering this area watching it every second Russia would have been watching it too. You are right about the depths but it does vary and in some areas considerably deeper. You are correct about remote controlled undersea subs/drones BUT that opens up the number of nations capable of doing this to about 2 dozen or more. Actually diving down secretly either from the surface or from a sub limited it to three countries, the drone idea opens that up to almost anyone with a few bucks. Give me a million bucks and I could do it.
There is another "clinker" in this which may be important. Both pipelines were "interrupted" at a place where the pipeline changed direction or where turned. Why? There were other stretches of pipeline that were more accessible if the goal was to not be discovered why at a bend in the pipe?
#22.214.171.124.2.1.1 OneGuy on 2022-10-03 13:01 (Reply)
First, bear in mind that a 'bend' in the pipe is probably not something you could sense if you were standing at that point, looking either way - it's a gentle curve that allows all of the machinery that's routinely put inside the pipe to pass without any chance of hanging up. The comparison would be to rail line bends. Even when pipelines come to surface, say when they transition to the riser at an offshore platform, the bend radii are very gentle. The pig trains that they launch into these things can be made up of devices that are 10 ft +, and the last thing they want to risk is getting stuck.
Other reasons for the location, not knowing the topography: Damage at a bend will complicate repair - again, I'm not a pipeline engineer, but I think it's likely they'll have to lift the pipeline to surface to work on it, meaning it will be cut and then re-fitted with a new spool piece to re-connect it at the seabed. A mess - but the longer it goes without any insights being gained on the cause, the more likely it's a mission and not 'natural causes'. They've already had plenty of time to get an ROV down there to look at it..
#126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52 Aggie on 2022-10-03 13:33 (Reply)
Right at this moment the Denmark military ship HDMS Absalon is hovering over the pipeline leak site. Within 30 NM are: two Danish military ships, two Swedish military ships, a German coast guard ship, two Polish research vessels, a Polish survey ship, numerous state owned support ships and about 30-40 commercial ships. In an hour most of the commercial ships will be replaced by other commercial ships. This goes on all day and all night. Some of those state/military ships are there specifically as a response to the pipeline incident but you could look at this area any day and see half a dozen military and coast guard ships in the same area. In fact this section of Ocean is famous for having the Nordic countries discover and harass subs (usually Russian subs) that are trying to remain hidden. It is one of the worst places on earth to try to do something clandestinely.
#184.108.40.206.3 OneGuy on 2022-10-03 12:50 (Reply)
This is a useful site if you haven't seen it before. The 3 'Danger Areas' are little red circles - hover your mouse over each item to see the description / vessel name.
#220.127.116.11.3.1 Aggie on 2022-10-03 13:42 (Reply)
You'll notice on Marine Traffic that this vessel is steaming quite slowly just to the northeast of the Swedish warships, having left Copenhagen a few days ago.
The SKAGERAK is a Swedish survey vessel with ROV capabilities.
She has a multibeam and echo profilers and this will return with almost photographic images of the seabed and fairly detailed images of the pipeline as well, bird's eye view. I've picked up old wrecks on the seabed in quite good detail using a vessel like this to finalize drilling locations. The acoustic doppler current profiler will allow them to read the currents real time from top - to- bottom of the water column (the currents will displace the plume from directly above the breach).
The boom at the stern pivots up and over to launch an ROV spread. A Remote Operated Vehicle would allow them to stand off at a safe distance at surface but get right to the breach with the ROV - ROVs are operated on a spooled tether that provides power and communications, telemetry, so on, and in this modern deepwater age, they are typically configured for 10,000 ft. An ROV will allow them to get right up to the breaches - they have great cameras, lots of power, lighting, so forth - it'll just depend on the water visibility, but even then, they have sonar. But 10,000 ft of spool in 80m of water depth allows the vessel to keep a nice safe upwind distance from the surface plume.
#18.104.22.168.3.1.1 Aggie on 2022-10-03 14:00 (Reply)
Losing the lines costs too much to remedy and removes too many negotiating options and diplomatic & strategic advantages for it to have ever been self-inflicted.
I find it almost inconceivable that the US would sabotage Nord Stream without first getting sign-off from the German government, and what you wrote would also apply to their position. It would also represent a significant and largely permanent escalation from the Germans in their opposition to not just Putin but any possible successor. Imagining that the US would perform such an aggressive act without consultation with our NATO allies is equally inconceivable, and represents a similarly significant escalation. If either scenario is accurate, the blowback would be significant and I don't think generally favorable.
I can buy the reasons why the Russians blowing up the pipelines themselves is illogical but finding an upside for the US or NATO is difficult.
Nine NATO allies back Ukraine's path to membership
So if Ukraine joins NATO, does that put US in the shooting war with Russia?
It much more likely means that the Ukraine is going to cease to exist... at least in its current political form.
feeblemind: So if Ukraine joins NATO, does that put US in the shooting war with Russia?
It would, but it won't. Admission to NATO require unanimity. Most of the nations in NATO won't agree to Ukraine's admission while there is a hot war going on, and doing so would only make things worse. There are a number of other requirements, such as a commitment to the peaceful resolution of border disputes and endemic corruption, that would have to be addressed.
Empty political posturing. Western elites and media cannot gin up any enthusiasm for a war with Russia. Most people seem to be ok with sending weapons to Ukraine, but nobody is willing to go fight & die there.
Been through this before/California youth/stem academics... For far too long the expert class has abandoned God to become their own masters of utopia. The moral foundation has rotted and there is no support for those needing help or guidance. It appears we are a long way from re-establishing any foundation. ESG, CRT, NWO, or BBB are only deflection from the progressive borg that have lead us to this point. Welcome chaos.
Fact corrections: Bettelheim, Autism (and vaccinations?)
I wrote the annotated bibliography on Bettelheim for oxford University Press; I can correct the misleading (ad hominem) comments on the post above.
Bettelheim was incarcerated by the Nazis in Dachau/buchenwald, the first and model for future concentration camps for almost 18 months. Many died during that time, although the Final Solution's gas chambers were not yet built. It was no picnic.
Prior to that he graduated with high honors from U of Vienna with a Ph. D. He left academia (reluctantly) to take over his father's lumber business after his father died. His family was known to and respected by Sigmund Freud.
He did not "divorce" his first wife, as the person wrote; she left him and married a physician while Bettelheim was in Dachau.
He was released from concentration camp through an appall from Eleanor Roosevelt.
The ad hominem attacks started after his death (when he could not defend himself). he took his own life after several debilitating strokes and his fear that he would become bed ridden like a good friend from Vienna. He did this on the anniversary of the Nazi invasion of Vienna.
This writer truly has suffered at having an autistic child who then died under suspicious circumstances. But this doesn't give her the right to distort another man's life and accomplishments.
If you experimentally adopt the position that OUR GOVERNMENT IS ACTIVELY WORKING TO HARM US, TO DISMANTLE MODERN SOCIETY & ENSLAVE ALL PEOPLE IN A DIGITALLY CONTROLLED TOTALITARIAN WORLD, it all fits. https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/dr-michael-yeadon-the-most-important