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Saturday, May 9. 2020

Contact-tracing and testing not "appropriate"

In most cases

Posted by The News Junkie at 17:23 | Comments (19) | Trackbacks (0)

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bad link? taken down?
#1 Robert Stephenson on 2020-05-09 18:18 (Reply)
Just from the headline, I have to think "It seemed to go okay in South Korea and Taiwan."

Bad contagion situations overwhelm even good practices, and good contagion situations aren't much hurt by bad practices. This is what makes it hard to measure what works and what is useless. Isn't that true of most things? If you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you might get shot even though you did everything right and everyone loves you. If you live in a safe neighborhood, you probably won't get shot even if you are a threatening, obnoxious jerk.
#2 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-05-09 19:23 (Reply)
It was a poor decision to post this video, its conclusion is inaccurate...
#3 Bob on 2020-05-10 06:51 (Reply)
This blog occasionally posts bad videos to prompt discussion. See, for example, all the Bob Dylan stuff.
#3.1 egd on 2020-05-10 08:31 (Reply)
I'd link to the latest release from the Dylan canon, from his album to be released in June, but I'm not that tech savvy.
#3.1.1 Mark on 2020-05-10 09:48 (Reply)
ALL information can be manipulated, not just that with which you personally disagree... in other words, THINK FOR YOURSELF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjDA6OnBXNs
#3.2 Fr. John+ on 2020-05-11 08:13 (Reply)
I can imagine contact-tracing working pretty well in my county, where the incidence of the disease is close to zero. Once it's thoroughly spread, as it has in all the densely populated areas, contact-tracing strikes me as a loud distraction. It enables people to say, "None of this would be happening if we just found the resources to testing hundreds of millions of people daily and investigate their lives thoroughly." And that's a way to avoid talking about the relative risks of opening the economy back up or keeping it clamped down.

Which isn't to say that testing and contact-tracing are bad in themselves, only that I suspect they are a misallocation of scarce financial and mental resources. They could be useful if we didn't make a fetish of them.
#4 Texan99 on 2020-05-10 07:42 (Reply)
Correct - we are miles past the point where contact tracing makes any sense. Just let people go out and get it in the spring and summer so we have a herd immunity by the fall. This is what NYC should have been doing in January and February (along with cleaning the subway and quarantining the nursing homes).
#5 NJSoldier on 2020-05-10 09:25 (Reply)
We may be miles past where contact tracing makes any epidemiological sense, but we are just getting started on its political usefulness.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/496957-states-build-contact-tracing-armies-to-crush-coronavirus

…”Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) have proposed adding a massive nationwide federal contact tracing program to the next round of coronavirus-related relief funding. In a nod to the New Deal-style scale such a program would require, they call the program the Coronavirus Containment Corps.” ...and no doubt you've seen the video discussing contact tracing followed by forcible internment being proposed in California.
#5.1 Aggie on 2020-05-10 10:40 (Reply)
We need to get over 80% exposure to have herd immunity. Sometimes 85% or more.
#5.2 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-05-11 14:52 (Reply)
Quite apart from any health-related pros and cons ... I’m supposed to consent to allowing mandated surveillance of everywhere I go and everyone I ever come in contact with? And then I’m supposed to trust the keepers of that information to never leak it, lose it, or allow it to be hacked, or think of some way to use it for their own gain and against my self-interests?

That’s adorable. No.

How on earth is this not a clear violation of the 4th amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure? Probable cause? Every clause in it would be violated, no?

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularity describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
#6 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-05-10 10:46 (Reply)
How on earth is this not a clear violation of the 4th amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure? Probable cause? Every clause in it would be violated, no?

I agree, Jeff, but their argument will be:
1) it is not unreasonable for .gov to to this because it is for your safety and the safety of all the little children too.
2) They will insist it's not really a search.
3) When it comes to probable cause, they will say it is obvious, you are a threat to the health and safety of the world if you are not willing to surrender some liberty for safety and security and that's as good a probable cause as they will need.
4) And finally, there will remind you that this is all for the greater good and ask why you are so against these necessary measures to save the planet....ooops that one slipped in there.....wrong crisis, or maybe not.
#6.1 Kevin in PA on 2020-05-10 11:37 (Reply)
Agreed, they will say all of that.

There’s always a laundry list of “good” reasons to take away freedoms.
#6.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-05-10 11:48 (Reply)
"The road to hell is paved with good intentions."
Josef Stalin
#6.1.1.1 Kevin in PA on 2020-05-10 11:50 (Reply)
I think you both make good points. However, the Supreme Court ruled on essentially these issues over a century ago. You are going to have a hard slog unwinding that.
#6.2 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-05-10 18:27 (Reply)
I think that's why it's smart to let the states figure this out independently. Some states are clearly ahead of others and this seems to be working out pretty well, so far (knock wood). How are the slow-starter 'keep'er locked' red states going to defend their strategy against obvious examples next door that are doing just fine? I don't think these lawsuits / injunctions would ever make it to the S.C., if this continues. Plus, between you and me, there seem to be an awful lot of new conservative Federal judges around now, for some reason.
#6.2.1 Aggie on 2020-05-10 19:35 (Reply)
....Sorry, meant to say, 'blue states'...
#6.2.1.1 Aggie on 2020-05-10 19:36 (Reply)
Since smart phones with geo-tracking were invented in 2007, any Supreme Court case from 100 years ago needs to be revisited to consider the ways technology has fundamentally changed the world we live in.
#6.2.2 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-05-10 20:48 (Reply)
Just lost a comment due to the letters and numbers thingie...
#7 jm01 on 2020-05-14 13:34 (Reply)

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