We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Tuesday, May 5. 2020
The only Pulitzer the 1619 Project deserved was for fiction
Pro-lockdown extremists in denial about why we did it in the first place
Nation's Political Class Perfectly OK With Your Financial Death
Faced with 19,000 Dead, Care Homes Seek Shield From Lawsuits
Trump Moves Coronavirus Projections From 60,000 To 80-90,000 Deaths
Susan Rice: America’s Loss of Life Far Greater Because of Trump’s ‘Extraordinary Failings’
New York Magazine writer lies about Georgia virus numbers
Comey’s Stalinists - Jail time is all they should have to look forward to.
As China's Economy Implodes, Trump Ratchets Up the Pressure
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Gosh, 80 - 90,000 deaths.
That's almost as many as died in the U.S. as during the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic. (~ 1 million deaths world wide).
Remember that? All the lockdowns, social distancing, etc.?
Neither do I.
Actually, that's about how many Americans died of the HK flu. Seeing that we are already at 70K, we're going to blow by that 80-90K. Also we had two bits of luck in 1968: there was likely partial immunity because of previous flu with similarity in the late 50's, and we got a semi-quarantine early as it hit just before school winter vacations. That would be less help now, as children are not the primary victims of this one.
Additionally, death is not the only problem with C19. We are saving many with good medical care, but permanent lung, hepatic, and other organ damage is an issue going forward for many, and maybe even neurological damage.
It's why many who are in favor of reopening want to do it cautiously.
By August there will be 150,000 deaths and it won't stop there.
"By August there will be 150,000 deaths and it won't stop there."
Keep hope alive!
I was correct when I predicted over 60,000 deaths by May and you thought that was wrong too. I may have under estimated the 150,000 by August prediction.
I keep hearing reports of lung damage, but haven’t really seen conformation. Are you an MD, or work in the medical field? Where have you seen these reports of permanent damage? What sort of severity of Wuhan does it take to leave permanent damage? If you get it, and didn’t even realize it, are your organs damaged? Very curious about this, because the goal post for letting us have our privileges (it’s obvious we don’t have rights anymore) back keeps moving. The Chinese never reported on any of these issues. Frankly, I trust them about as much as I trust my own government. Zero trust. They’ve earned it.
Johns Hopkins report on what this virus can do to the lungs. Very damaging.
For those who know someone with asthma, also damaging. If you get pneumonia and have asthma, it can scar your lungs for life. You will never have the same lungs pre-pneumonia, is what I've been told. So this idea that illness can damage the lungs is not new.
Thanks for the link! That answers the questions about lungs.
Now about the liver, other organ and neurological issues?
Some COVID patients suffer from abnormal clotting, which disrupts blood flow to organs. The worst problems are in the lungs, brain, heart, liver and kidneys. A professional-level discussion is here: https://www.hematology.org/covid-19/covid-19-and-coagulopathy
And for a layperson-focused article: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/29/847917017/doctors-link-covid-19-to-potentially-deadly-blood-clots-and-strokes
Hope that helps.
I have a lot of respect for you AVI, but it really looks like you've been drinking the media kool-aid on this one.
Are you sure it's not you drinking media Kool-Aid? What is the prevailing attitude here? Everywhere I usually go online is not just in favor or quick reopening, but insulting and angry at those who disagree, even partially. You can always tell when people have lost it. They make snide remarks, but if you point it out, you are suddenly the bad guy who is being difficult. Same as at work: when you point out where the real problems are, you get defined as the problem.
I'm in favor of reopening. I also think C19 is dangerous.
AVI, notice that plethora of unusual nom de plume's. Maggiesfarm is being trolled probably by one person and it could even be Zac. Other sites are also getting similar treatment, perhaps it is a coordinated effort.
One Guy: it could even be Zac
We never post under another nom de plume.
If you go by CDC numbers, straight Covid deaths are at about 39k. By their numbers for the week ending on May 2nd: (and be sure to check the footnotes in each chart)
138 Covid deaths
6,532 All causes
9 % expected
409 Pneumonia deaths
65 Covid & Pneu
485 Deaths w/Pneu, Influ, or Covid 19
Going by the date sequence in Chart 1, we may be almost over this. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks.
Specifically says on CDC website that this data is lagging by 'several' weeks and may not account for all deaths. That it is based on tabulated deaths provided to them and that they are not up-to-date and that their numbers will differ from other sources.
Read the notes below the links provided:
I look at what the states are reporting. Those are the more up-to-date numbers. Some might be non-COVID that got mixed in, but not a majority. No way. Already read a report just yesterday that there have been 19,000 reported nursing home deaths...and every day we find out about a new nursing home whose numbers have just been discovered.
Takes weeks for a serious case on a ventilator to become a 'death,' so will be weeks more deaths for a while yet, even as cases go down.
Also this note connected to the 38,000 number in the chart on that page:
"Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07."
Deaths at home do not get an ICD-10 code (which is coding done at hospitals for reimbursement from medicare, insurance, medicaid). Many nursing home deaths wouldn't either, I don't believe.
I read up on ICD-10 coding for nursing homes...a patient is given a 'code' when he goes to the nursing home...so, for example, cancer or alzheimers, but beyond that you aren't 'recoded' as time goes on. So many nursing home deaths, if they person didn't go to the hospital for treatment, would not be ICD-10 coded either.
Miss T, we have not always agreed in discussion, as you know, but I do continue to read you and thank you for your work on this topic. There are some I no longer even bother with, but you aren't one of those.
Nobody focuses on modern medicine and what we are able to do. You focus on deaths and not how many people were hospitalized using modern medicine to save them. Without those hospitals, deaths would be much higher. This is a very dangerous virus. We are lucky we have a good hospital system, excellent doctors, and some treatment options coming online.
Hong Kong Flu timeline you didn't have today's techniques for caring for people with compromised lungs.
So if you are going to compare 'deadliness' you must figure out what the mortality would be without modern medicine, wouldn't you? The Coronavirus has the potential to be very deadly. More so than the flu.
We also don't know what long-term damage the virus is doing to people...they are learning new things every day about this virus. Now we are finding out many end up with mysterious blood clots that are causing all kinds of problems. Children (a very very small percentage) are developing Kawasaki disease.
What happens to someone who barely made it out of the hospital? What are their long-term problems? Will this cut their life short in the future due to lung or other damage? We don't know.
I worry about what long term damage is done by vaccines which are supposed to be a solution to disease. So is researcher Judy Mikovits and she doesn't trust Fauci.
When Bill Gates joins with WHO and the NIH in Event 201 and he is a population control guru and a sponsor of Common Core I have a tendency to totally retreat from having any faith in his and their support of any program. I find that institutions, especially government institutions, have totally lost their way. They have become corrupted.
What long-term damage are you thinking of? Repeated flu vaccines actually give mild immunity in later years.
Seriously! You cite a site with Mercola's name on it. He might as well change his name to stupid quack. The one true thing in this world is if Mercola says it than it isn't true.
Calm down. Mercola is but one of several sites she has been on and look at her research resume. Fauci is a political lightweight in medicine by comparison. It is the XMRV retrovirus that is the problem as it is likely a contaminant from mouse cells used in vaccines. You might want to read the piece and others before ignoring the evidence. It is quite likely responsible for several other diseases that include some cancers. Or...don't read it.
I am familiar with Judy Mikovits, Ph.D. She has been an anti-vaxxer forever. She is using this crisis to push her anti-vax biases.
Dr Mercola has had a long time relationship with quackery. Honestly I don't think he ever thought he would be thrust into the spotlight where his past would haunt him. I think he felt that his bizarre medical views would be a money maker and as long as he didn't get too "strange" that he could keep getting away with it. But now he is commenting on actual medical problems and treatments and he stands out like a whore in church.
Dr. Fauci has some baggage and a few questionable past connections. I honestly do not know if he is a problem in all of this or not. For now I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.
The problem is every group with an agenda is using this crisis to push their bias and some are trying to extort power or money from this. Even the race baiters have found a hook they can use to get a little something out of this. The Democrats think they can elect a brain dead candidate to the presidency using this crisis. The governors are using it as cover to negate our constitutional rights AND they hope to use it to bail themselves out of years of budget stupidity.
If you are an anti-vaxxer there is nothing I can say to change your mind. If you are not an anti-vaxxer my advice is don't ever believe anything they say and don't give them any credit for anything, they are flat earthers.
To each his own but when I add Bill Gates to the mess and he is a population control planned parenthood backer I do wonder why he would push vaccines to the third world and why India and several African nations are anti Gates. Who, the CDC, and NIH do not provide a bit of confidence on safety issues or even a focus on their original tasking. As I have mentioned many times, government institutions have been corrupted by the administrative state. Trusting the government is a real issue for me. And I suspect it is why Trump is president.
The same game has been played for decades with climate science models: If it's your model, pretend that its predictions are simply solid facts provided in advance, and inevitable result. Ignore the severe limitations of modelling as a predictive tool, declare the results to be hallowed and sacred, refute the annoying tendency of real data to render previous modelling invalid.
For the political class, well only some of them are indifferent to financial ruin of the proles, in pursuit of their political objectives - and some are not, seeing it as their own survival, too. The proles still know how to observe progress in other states, review the data, and think for themselves.
I can see Trump simply pointing to the successfully re-opened states, based on the data, and then further point out that nobody is declaring that individuals cannot continue to shelter in place if they so decide. The person responsible for your health & safety is You.
"Care homes seek shield from lawsuits"
Why not. It is foolish to believe that they can prevent either the virus from getting in or the deaths that result once it gets in. But since the lawyers have more power with congress than the people do I fully expect that there will be lawsuits and the care homes will be put out of business so that lawyers can have bigger homes and nicer cars. After all it is the American way. DO I need to remind anyone that this is the reason vaccine companies pharmaceuticals and other health care manufacturing companies moved overseas?
Any additional Covid deaths are not to be laid at one person's feet. I don't care who the president is or could be - we'd have had the same outcome.
The 'failings' are the politicization of science. Trump's 'failings' for the left are that he failed to politicize it the way they wanted.
He HAS politicized this event. I don't think in a particularly good or beneficial way. But not in a horrible way that cost lives.
Whatever the number is, is what it would have been.
Stalin's misattributed quote, unfortunately, had this issue nailed. 1 death is a tragedy. A million is a statistic.
Wendy’s begins to cut hamburgers from menu amid meat shortages: ‘Where’s the beef?’
According to a Daily Mail report, California isn't the only state to see locations removing burgers from their menus. Restaurants in both South Carolina and Kentucky have also reportedly cut burgers from their offerings.
Maybe Susan Rice can blame the deaths on some obscure youtube video instead.
“Nation's Political Class Perfectly OK With Your Financial Death”
Millionaires, Billionaires Agree Being out of Work for Three Months Acceptable”