Saturday morning links

So, not to be too blunt, but when may we expect that "southern" surge of hospitalizations/fatalities? ERs at TMC are quite empty, and number of patients actually diagnosed has dropped to around 1K.

'Tis a bit funny (and yes, sad) to see Harris county buy into the forecasted wave and turn NRG into some sort of care facility...

(Texas Medical Center, BTW)

#2 anon a mouse on 2020-04-11 09:06 (Reply)

Texas has 12,000 cases already.

We hope little or no Southern surge occurs. The downside of that would be all those people who insist there never was a problem. Success will be regarded as failure. I predicted exactly that in the comments section here over a month ago.

#2.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 09:48 (Reply)

Well, aren't you "special!"

How many cases of contagious seasonal influenza (for which there is already a questionably efficacious---50% effective this year?--- vaccine), are there? How many cases of contagious "bad colds"?

FAR MORE THAN 12,000, I'll wager!

DID THEY SHUT TEXAS DOWN FOR THOSE MALADIES?

#2.1.1 Old Codger on 2020-04-11 11:44 (Reply)

Of course they didn't. Not a good comparison. We know the range of deaths from influenza and other contagious illnesses every year under current levels of protection and have decided de facto that this is an acceptable level of risk. Because we do not know the level of risk from C19, but do know that people are dying in the streets in some other countries, we decided to take more extreme measures. Whether that was too much is not currently known. Somehow you seem to know.

#2.1.1.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 18:14 (Reply)

For all the people who will now appear as instant 'I was right!" experts, they should lead with their original prediction and the thinking and work that supported it, including why they concluded that the US would not become an Italy or Spain.

I think the shutdown was the right thing to do, and that the results have met the aspiration. Being within an order of magnitude on a epidemiological model of a disease with unknown virulence or communicability should be considered success. But even if I'm wrong, I would think it cheap to attempt playing gotcha on some alternative hypothetical, as if it's more right.

Now that it appears increasingly clear that we are dodging the worst, it's time to start communicating the plan to get the economy ramping up again.

#2.1.2 Aggie on 2020-04-11 14:55 (Reply)

Trump can be forgiven for listening to "Two Very Smart People", but it has become obvious to the most casual observer that the "experts" were wrong. Trump must realize that now, so from here on, the damage to our economy is on him.

#3 snopercod on 2020-04-11 09:49 (Reply)

And the saved lives? Are those on him as well? Or were those deaths never going to happen?

#3.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 09:55 (Reply)

The experts were not wrong. The shutdown worked. We flattened the curve and that is important because we still need to shore up our health care system and acquire PPE materials. The effect of the shutdown went well beyond just reducing the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths it also reduced all accidental deaths and almost all other ER cases. It succeeded beyond all expectations. The virus did not go away it will continue it's course until everyone has been exposed. Some percentage will indeed die. Not as many thanks to the shutdown and the time needed to better prepare for this. But before it's done it will kill well over a million worldwide and perhaps well over 100,000 in the U.S. If the hospitals had been overwhelmed that number would have been much larger.

Most people for some reason cannot see what is happening. We had over 2000 deaths yesterday, more than double what it was three days ago and people are wasting their energy trying to show this prediction or that prediction wasn't perfect. When we lift the shutdown, which we must do, the cases of Covid-19 will increase again. There is so much yet unknown about this disease and we won't know most of it until it runs it's course. About the only thing we know with any certainty is that the shutdown and self quarantine worked and gave us some breathing room.

#3.2 Anon on 2020-04-11 11:07 (Reply)

"flattening the curve" (not actually preventing deaths) to 'shore up the system' by destroying the very economic engine it needs now and well into the future. Not at all good. The disease is serious but far from apocalyptic. Quite a few diseases kill FAR more people.

The truth is, virtually everyone will get it in one form or another.

There is a strange parallel here: Like some other respiratory infections, it does the most damage by over-stimulating the body's defenses, in effect they body is tricked into damaging itself, and becomes vulnerable to all sorts of dangers.

Similarly, the panicked reaction by governments (acting as a hysterical group here) is causing governments to destroy the vibrancy of of their own countries, leaving them weak, poor and very vulnerable.

#3.2.1 jay on 2020-04-11 12:53 (Reply)

The vast majority of deaths were to the 70 and older group that had other medical problems as well. The older group is likely retired and could have been home quarantined. Instead, the expert class quarantined everyone and killed the economy. But perhaps that is what the administrative state expert class wanted to accomplish. With Trump gone that are free to continue the relentless nanny state oppression. And if you follow the Bill Gates mandate of population control then you also have far fewer old to support through medicare and social security. That's a win, win for the neo Malthusian state elitists. And to think they have Communist China to thank for the assist.

#3.3 indyjonesouthere on 2020-04-11 11:26 (Reply)

I think that the vast majority were the 50 and older group. I believe that you and others ONLY claim it is the 70 and older group to bolster your point that "what the hell they were going to die anyway". I am opposed to writing off the 70 and older and the 50 and older too. Imagine that some crazy jihadist runs down half a dozen people and kills them but they are all in their 70's. Then you chirp up "What the heck they were all 70 or older so they don't count". Gee, won't that make all those at the funeral feel better. IMHO That is a stupid argument. You are better than that. I would suggest that you fall back on the less cruel meme that most deaths are from pneumonia and not from Covids-19. Still a stupid argument but you don't appear to be as blood thirsty and anything will be an improvement.

#3.3.1 Anon on 2020-04-11 12:41 (Reply)

Here you go, 80% I’d deaths are in the 66+ age group, age 75 and over make up 45%.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11FhH4hyO_lH8mKaIhpXmigfDzaaR4yiz8cb5EmooX9U/edit#gid=1963349075

#3.3.1.1 Frp on 2020-04-11 17:32 (Reply)

You do understand that my statement "I think that the vast majority were the 50 and older group." is 100% correct and there is no stat you can cite to show it is incorrect. So you go about splitting hairs. Which is exactly the point I am making; for you and others if they can just show that all these dead bodies are old folks who were gonna die anyway and who cares then you feel justified. Good for you, please call your grandma and your mom and tell them you love them

#3.3.1.1.1 Anon on 2020-04-11 18:32 (Reply)

Well actually, no, you were wrong. I’m not splitting hairs, you are. I guess you could have said the deaths were in the over 10 year old range and you’ll still be right. I gave you the static’s that show the majority of deaths are of the very elderly, 99% of them have had other serious health problems. Healthy 80 year olds are no more likely to get CV than the average person. I don’t need to call my mother, I’m in a high age bracket so, except for the fact that I’m otherwise healthy, could be next. That doesn’t change the facts. Except for NYC the rest of America has had fewer deaths than in a normal flu year and deaths attributed to flu are almost non-esistant.

#3.3.1.1.1.1 FRP on 2020-04-11 20:39 (Reply)

I'm 73, nearly 74. Nothing bloodthirsty in my statement. The argument I make is that as retirees it is far easier for our older group to quarantine so that those younger can go about business and they are far less likely to be a fatality. Why should the entire country be locked down when the retiree generation can kick back with fewer social contacts and we don't kill the economy as we are currently doing and spending trillions to add to the debt just trying to offset the lockdown. Seems reasonable.

#3.3.1.2 indyjonesouthere on 2020-04-11 22:43 (Reply)

I think your original statement about the Nanny/Deep State wanting to come back after getting rid of Trump is spot on. I'm still waiting for all the layoffs of non essential government employees. Maybe the deep state would be more concerned if They were getting laid off. Right now they haven't missed a paycheck. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

#3.3.1.2.1 grant1863 on 2020-04-11 23:29 (Reply)

The economy was going to die anyway. It was systematically being killed by the Fed and the dirty rotten dealings of our political class and their incestuous relationship to big business, big pharma and big surveillance. The last bubble popped and they can't hide it anymore.

This 'shutdown' was not for OUR safety, it was for THEIRS. To keep those that caused it from being hung from light posts and other tall structures when it became apparant that something was amiss economically.

The election of Trump was to keep the kafabe going that there are two opposing political parties and that they are competently "representing" us peasants.

Welcome to the gullag, comrades. The entire country is a gulag. And the ever shrinking working class will continue to feed, water and make your lives comfortable while the shit show continues.

Unless someone decides to vote from the rooftops. Although 5G and the new surveillance on us has taken care of ID'ing any of those planning it or capable of it.

#3.3.2 fjord on 2020-04-11 13:18 (Reply)

I don't think hydroxychloroquine is going to prove out.
See Pharma research chemist Derek Lowe's "In The Pipeline" for April 6

#4 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 09:53 (Reply)

True-- we still don't know if it works or not.

Did anyone spot the problem with the article on the French 1000-patient study?

No control group! For all we know, 98% of them would have recovered if they were given a placebo. (If anyone who can read French spotted it in there, please correct me.)

The study is completely meaningless for this reason. Fervent wishes and high hopes != science.

#4.1 Hairless Joe on 2020-04-11 10:22 (Reply)

Exactly how would you ethically introduce a control group under these circumstances? You have a treatment that poses little risk, but might help. Get your head out of ideological purity. Sometimes anecdotal is the best you've got. As someone pointed out, Fauci is behaving more like a scientist and less like a physician. That's fine when there's no crisis.

You're in a war. A general does not have the option of trying several strategies to see which one is more successful.

#4.1.1 jay on 2020-04-11 12:59 (Reply)

Read Lowe's article.

#4.1.1.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 18:07 (Reply)

Doubling down on "STOOPID" today, are we???

How many cases of this crud has left-wing "journalist" Lowe treated?? Oh, yeah : NONE!

Virologist Didier Raoult has treated over a 1,000 using HCQ, with excellent results---98% cure rate. And experience has benn replicated, observed and measured several times over by other physiicans all over the world!

Those who insist upon "double blind testesting forget the such testing has two purposes: 1) safety for use in treatment of humans (HCQ has a 70 year history of safety) and 2) clinical efficacy (does it work better than a sugar pill?) From direct observation of treatment HCQ works!

Those who insist that double blinds be completed first, are like the Doc who refuses to use a common dress belt as a tourniquet to stanch the flow of blood from a ruptured artery, because the belt doesn't bear an FDA stamp of approval (Belts weren't designed as tourniquets, after all!).

The true measure is: DOES IT WORK? Those engaged in treatment of actual patients say "YES".

Those engaged in musing over theoretical bureaucratic niceties say "We must test first! Observations be damned!"

Yet, I'd wager everyone of those bureaucrats, if seriously infected would choose treatment over the alternative---death!!

#4.2 Old Codger on 2020-04-11 12:05 (Reply)

Ah, so you didn't actually read the article, you don't understand how research works, neither in an emergency nor in calmer times, and for some reason think Lowe must be left-wing. Thank you, doctor.

My best reason for supporting those who do not want to remove the restrictions, such as the POTUS and Gov Sununu, is that those criticising them have a random assortment of facts they find important and a leaky bucket of ability to reason. They resort to all-caps because they think that screaming and being insulting is an actual argument. There may be better arguers out there who can make a reasoned case. I'm not seeing them at present.

I shall not bother to answer you again. There is no point.

#4.2.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 18:22 (Reply)

Texas has 12,000 cases already."

Didn't mention cases, and that's not what's been discussed. Fatalities and hospitalizations haven't been what was predicted, including "distancing" and other practices.

#5 anon a mouse on 2020-04-11 09:54 (Reply)

You said 1k cases had been diagnosed. Perhaps you want to clarify what you meant when you made that badly inaccurate statement?

#5.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-11 18:06 (Reply)

So I’m going to have to have my Dr. Fauci immunity certificate with me everywhere I go? I’m sure the homeless and illegal immigrants will naturally be exempted from this totalitarian law. Or will it even be necessary to go through Congress? Will it just be an order from the swamp? No right for redress? Amazing what subservient people Americans have turned into. All based on models that have been orders of magnitude WRONG. I do believe this is a serious virus. Very serious for those with underlying conditions. However, I am very disturbed by how readily Americans except the yoke of slavery to the state, and how quick governors, mayors and city council have let their dictator flag fly.

#6 B. Hammer on 2020-04-11 10:26 (Reply)

Papers please!

#6.1 indyjonesouthere on 2020-04-11 11:12 (Reply)

"Democrats seem to be enjoying this authoritarian moment'":
"Seem" to be? Like pigs in mud, they ARE.

#7 Sam L. on 2020-04-11 11:03 (Reply)

Ginger, the emotional support dog who found out she wasn't cut out to be an emotional support dog- made me glad I wasn't drinking anything when I read it.

#8 Gringo on 2020-04-11 11:09 (Reply)

How capitalism is supposed to work: I agree with him, but, this case is different because the government shut it all down. What should have been added to the conversation is that in a free country the government would not have the power to shut it down even if that meant more people died. We see people today being forcibly ejected from riding on a bus because he wasn't wearing a face mask. Should the government be able to do that??? I see people with purple or blue hair why aren't they forcibly arrested for being dufuses in public? I see people occupy college offices for days or weeks at a time and nothing happens to them. But some guy who isn't sick rides the city bus and half a dozen police show up and manhandle him for no legal (as in constitutional) reason.

#9 OneGuy on 2020-04-11 11:14 (Reply)

Asia was much more prepared because they already wear masks:
Ignore the reason they wear masks is because of poor air quality and living in "shit hole" conditions? Can we thank our system of cleaning everything up so it wasn't deemed necessary, that we have less immunity?
See George Carlin swimming in the Hudson Raw Sewage.
With in the cow herd, we have a measurement of white blood cell presence. If you're over 400 count, you have Charlie Brown Pigpen conditions. But if you're under 100, you have high production animals that basically die when hit with something that wouldn't get kill one that was at a 200 count. Immunity.
The next malady people will get is that cleaning our hands so much beyond simple water and soap opens your skin to things to get through. Time will tell.

#10 Jerry on 2020-04-11 12:12 (Reply)

Asians wear masks out of a cultural paranoia. The masks do very little to prevent the wearer from catching a communicable disease. They are somewhat effective to prevent the wearer from giving others their germs/virus from body fluids. Masks are mostly to make you feel that you are doing something. They are more effective in a very unhealthy environment, like a hospital. But in that circumstance they are not nearly enough protection and the individual should wear a full PPE.

#10.1 Saul on 2020-04-11 12:48 (Reply)

Remember when India publicly said that they would gladly share their hydroxychloroquine supply with the U.S.? Well now we discover that there are strings attached. They want Trump to extend H1B visas for hundreds of thousands of Indian workers. Hundreds of thousands! That is hundreds of thousands of American jobs that Americans have been restricted from applying for or kicked out of. Why do we do this? Well the reason is graft/corruption. You can bet that some congress people and others get money to vote for it or to look the other way.

How many hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers are allowed in under H1B (and other paragraphs in this anti-American law). How many of them and their families and extended families ever go back home? Yeah, zero!

#11 IdahoBob on 2020-04-11 12:57 (Reply)

Boeing re-opening.

As I have been saying for quite some time now--Boeing (WA State) is a nation unto itself, with a larger fealty, and financial obligation to China than to the US.

#12 faculty wife on 2020-04-11 14:09 (Reply)

As an aside, Gov Abbot announced changes in Texas programs to start next week.

#13 anon a mouse on 2020-04-11 14:25 (Reply)

" What Do You Do With Your 401(k) During the COVID-19 Crisis"

During the Wuhan Coronavirus, your 401K should be like your face. DON'T TOUCH IT.

#14 Ken Mitchell (Link) on 2020-04-11 23:05 (Reply)

As a case surveillance epidemiologist I just want to say that I completely agree with you about Beijing and Shanghai. WTF.

The case data for the Covid-19 pandemic make no sense. It’s baffling. Epidemics are supposed to spread, not bounce around the planet with seemingly no rhyme or reason.

Why has New York been slammed but San Francisco and LA have not? California recorded its first cover 19 cases in January; New York State did not have one until early March. There’s some other factor I play here but it’s not clear what that factor is.

#15 Typhoid Mary on 2020-04-12 02:16 (Reply)

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Saturday, April 11. 2020

Saturday morning links