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Sunday, March 22. 2020

Some preliminary numbers are being put together, but time will tell.

1. Powerline reports on a numbers-cruncher: A DATA-DRIVEN LOOK AT THE WUHAN CORONAVIRUS

2. More details on the above here: COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria

3. The median incubation period is 5 days. So without symptoms after a close exposure for a week or so, you likely aren't infected.

4. In the US you can see numbers of cases (+ tests) rising rapidly. That doesn't mean the numbers of cases are increasing that rapidly. It means more people are getting tested.

5. This germ does not appear to be spread as easily as feared, but I were elderly (80+), frail, overweight, or with significant pre-existing ailments, I would self-quarantine for a while. Not sure what "a while" means, yet.

6. What Does Having Coronavirus Feel Like? Here’s What Survivors, Patients Say

7. My expert medical friends tell me we'll have a good idea of when the infection rate will plateau or begin its downturn in the next 5-10 days. Can't go by "cases," though.

Addendum: For those who chose to be quarantined at home, we recommend several activities: Sex, home workouts, taking hikes or runs outdoors, reading Maggie's, doing one or two of The Great Courses, getting some outdoor clean-up done, doing an hour of paperwork, cleaning some closets and getting rid of junk, and having civilized cocktail hours. All sorts of ways to make the most of it. Churches are live-streamed now, so that too.

Posted by Dr. Joy Bliss in Medical at 12:28 | Comments (27) | Trackbacks (0)

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Expect a large baby boom in about 9 months. Just like during blizzards some resort to sex when there is nothing else to do.

#1 JC on 2020-03-22 12:49 (Reply)

Expect a large baby boom in about 9 months.

Sadly, that presumes the affected parties will actually PUT DOWN THEIR ELECTRONIC DEVICES long enough to participate in baby-making actions (aka "SEX"...for you Millennials.....and forgetful Boomers---who can't have kids anyway!)

#1.1 Old Codger on 2020-03-22 14:01 (Reply)

It also assumes that Planned Parenthood's baby butcher business won't boom before then...

#1.1.1 Mark Matis on 2020-03-22 14:41 (Reply)

I was disappointed at one conclusion in Powerline. A common statistical 'hilarity'. To put it simple it goes like this: As we do more testing and discover that more people are infected than we though we will see the death rate decline. True and if your only concern is the death rate than go celebrate. Imagine the glee in Northern Italy with a 5% death rate when after more testing they discover that their death rate is only 1%. Whoop whoop! But it doesn't change a single thing; for those 4825 people who died or their families or their family history. They still died!!! All we did was use a statistical artifact to allow us to declare "There, that wasn't so bad now was it?".

The other problem with all the feel goodism is we are still looking backwards to understand today. Everyone who died today in Italy or Iran or the U.S. was first infected 20 days ago. 20 days ago their fate was sealed and we just found out today and pundits everywhere feel it is their job to put a happy face on it. GOOD NEWS to the children and grandchildren of someone who just passed away. The death rate is not as bad as we thought it was. Don't you feel better now???

#2 Anon on 2020-03-22 13:08 (Reply)

Hi. No the point is I think that everyone is totally panicked and freaking out about this. Perhaps appropriately. Perhaps not. If the "regular" flu infects hundreds of millions of americans every year, hospitalizes hundreds of thousands, and kills 40-50K every year - and we didn't freak out and crater our economy every year during flu season for the last 100 years - perhaps we are overreacting to this. Every death is a tragedy. Of course. But so far many more people die from medical errors, car accidents, heart disease, etc. from this but this has completely cratered our economy and our way of life. The point of the "happy" articles is not that death is happy. It's that we have magnified this (perhaps) way, way out of proportion to any other disease process.

#2.1 Keith on 2020-03-22 13:18 (Reply)

"IF"

Essentially what you are saying is let's take a chance and see if this is as bad as the doctors think it might be. So what if the hospital system collapses and even sick people without covid19 die because the hospitals have been compromised. So what if quarantining now could have saved millions of lives. Who cares I need a drink/vacation/pay check/whatever. Is that your position???

#2.1.1 Anon on 2020-03-22 16:00 (Reply)

Guess you, (like many of the Low Info Millennials), missed the Memo that re-stated the obvious conclusion of this HOAX :

"The elderly and infirm with pre-exisitng medical conditions, may die prematurely from various diseases, CoVid -19 among them!" (But who's to say what's "Premature" for an 81 year old, with COPD?)

The Italians, like all Europeans< missed the Memo sent out years ago:

"Socialized Medicine which barely works in good times, DOES NOT WORK WELL AT ALL, in an emergency!"

The Italians also missed the recent Memo that said:

"It's NOT WISE to run a "Hug A CHINA MAN" PR campaign in the middle of an infectious disease outbreak!"

(Check it out on Youtube)

#2.2 Old Codger on 2020-03-22 14:18 (Reply)

It could be the same old globalists trying to dump on Trump and get us back to globalization. Found a piece by Vin Suprynowicz that alludes to the panicking and at the bottom is a video that seems to involve all the usual failed characters that are always in our face. The video is on "Event 201" which just occurred last year. https://vinsuprynowicz.com/?p=8359#more-8359

#2.2.1 indyjonesouthere on 2020-03-22 19:19 (Reply)

Maybe you should take a break from commenting for awhile. We get enough doom and gloom from the media.

#2.3 jimg on 2020-03-22 17:19 (Reply)

I don't think we do in this case. The media are trying to destroy Trump so they are trying to downplay the risk and "gloom and doom" around covid19. What I actually think is happening is that the classified briefings on covid19 are much worse than they are telling us but they are afraid we can't handle the truth. IMHO that is a mistake. They should tell us what they know because the rumors and uncertainty make it worse. If I'm wrong, and I pray I am, I will formally apologize to MF readers and never comment again. If I am right I will probably be one of the victims of covid19 and will not be able to post again.

#2.3.1 Anon on 2020-03-22 20:12 (Reply)

A. Ginn's article has been yanked off Medium and rebutted by a credentialed biologist - but - the biologist's rebuttal is mostly heaping scorn, not refuting data (it was done on Twitter). I found the article an interesting counterpoint while acknowledging that Ginn has no background in medical science. You can still find the article on Zero Hedge.

Has anyone been noticing how much air time Gov. Cuomo is getting? It's relentless, every day on the networks. Nearly as much as Trump's briefings: all Andrew, all the time. Anybody wondering why so much network interest in New York?

I think it's because Joe Biden is not going to make it. If you watch him move, he's got that peculiar, stiff-necked shuffle that old men get when they're on the edge of frailty - and his smiles are becoming more rictus-like. Watch Andrew Cuomo become the nominee, on the basis of his masterful crisis management, documented extensively in real time, as we are seeing unfold. The Conservative Tree House has a good breakdown of this today.

#3 Aggie on 2020-03-22 13:17 (Reply)

I had the same thought re: Cuomo. Though he may, or may not, have botched the ordering of pandemic supplies and preperation a few years ago, his briefings have been better than I ever expected. He comes across as hard working, conscientious, innovative, furiously seeking resources on behalf of New York, coupled with homey reassuring chats.

#3.1 Exasperated on 2020-03-22 14:44 (Reply)

As my mother used to say, "Fun is fun, but ..."

I'm tired of reading articles about the Wuhan/Chinese/corona virus, WHO's covering for China, China's lying, how many are infected, how many have died, whether the numbers accurate, how they compare with numbers of other pandemics or the yearly flu ...

It's not that those aren't valid topics to discuss but I am much more interested in reading about the results of administering the drugs that have already shown promise against this virus. Some of them have been around for decades and have been widely used on many populations so there's no worry that they aren't safe. I would like to hear about how thousands are being tested and what the results are so far.

We've basically shutdown our economy and gone into a quasi-quarantine. It's past time to hear about some positive developments so we can have some sense that we are proactively working to end this rather than just live through it.

#4 mudbug on 2020-03-22 13:26 (Reply)

I should say that none of what I said is meant to be a criticism of Maggies, Doc Bliss, or anybody else on the farm.

#4.1 mudbug on 2020-03-22 16:47 (Reply)

Completely agree, mudbug. Anything but good news that leads us out of the darkness is not very useful to us regular folks.

The public really needs to gain control of itself, because there’s something “off” about a culture that demands rather than rejects a constant flow of bad news that stokes fear and panic and invokes our fight-or-flight response 24x7. Yet we all know smart, capable people who fall for this garbage.

#4.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-24 08:13 (Reply)

The bill for shutting down the economy is coming due and boy is it going to be a whopper. It wouldn't surprise me to see Pelosi and ol' Mitch race to outspend each other in an effort to gain the political high ground.

Stop The Coronabailout From Raining Your Money On Corporate Lobbyists Instead Of Struggling Americans

“Never let a crisis co to waste."

QUOTE:

“I hope I’m wrong, but the list of what lobbyists are asking for is long, and ugly, and often the requests for money or legislative favors are done to cover up mistakes made before the coronavirus hit.

Take Boeing. The aerospace giant of course wants a $60 billion bailout. Financial problems for this corporation predated the crisis, with the mismanagement that led to the 737 Max as well as defense and space products that don’t work (I noted last July a bailout was coming). The corporation paid out $65 billion in stock buybacks and dividends over the last ten years, and it was drawing down credit lines before this crisis hit.

It is highly politically connected; the board of the corporation includes Caroline Kennedy, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff Ken Duberstein, three Fortune 100 CEOs, a former U.S. trade representative, and two admirals, one of whom is the board’s only engineer. Using the excuse of the coronavirus, Boeing is trying to get the taxpayer to foot the bill for its errors, so it can go back to making more of them.

But that’s not all. Defense contractors want their payments sped up, and I’ve heard they want to widen a giant loophole called “other transaction authority” to get around restrictions on profiteering. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos want “$5 billion in grants or loans to keep commercial space company employees on the job and launch facilities open.” They also want the Internal Revenue Service to give them cash for R&D tax credits.

CNBC reported that hotels want $150 billion, restaurants want $145 billion, and manufacturers wants $1.4 trillion. And the International Council of Shopping Centers wants a guarantee of up to $1 trillion. The beer industry wants $5 billion. The candy industry wants $500 million.

The New York Times reported that “Adidas is seeking support for a long-sought provision allowing people to use pretax money to pay for gym memberships and fitness equipment.” Gyms are of course closed. Meatpackers want special visas so they can undercut wages of their workers, and importers want to stop paying duties they incurred for harming domestic industries for illegally dumping products into the United States.”

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/22/stop-the-coronabailout-from-raining-your-money-on-corporate-lobbyists-instead-of-struggling-americans/

I don’t know what the answer is. Some of these industries have been severely hurt through no fault of their own. All of them will be looking to take advantage of the situation to get all they can.

Question: How many trillions can Uncle Sam pour into a moribund economy to get it restarted without stoking the fires of inflation?

Odd too, how many deficit/debt hawks have no trouble with this kind of spending if it is a result of fighting the virus. Suddenly a putative 2-3 trillion in new debt is just hunky-dory.

#5 feeblemind on 2020-03-22 14:31 (Reply)

I started reading Decameron ten days before the shut down (I am in SoCal).
Walking the dogs, working out, drinking.
Same as always

#6 Jake on 2020-03-22 15:12 (Reply)

For many years now Steve McIntyre, a mineral mining consultant has used his knowledge of statistics to make mincemeat out of bogus climate alarmism numbers. He has done so with no knowledge of weather or climate and he is consistently correct. Ginn is doing the same thing.

#7 FRP on 2020-03-22 16:46 (Reply)

7. My expert medical friends tell me we'll have a good idea of when the infection rate will plateau or begin its downturn in the next 5-10 days.

I was thinking this this morning. Probably earlier in my mind. But the reason is right now the media is hyping more cases with fee "recovered". But that is because it takes 5-20 days to recover depending on treatment/severity. So the "recovered" numbers will start to go up. The active cases will flatten.

And this all speeds up if the Hydroxychlorquinine continues its good results.

People have said most don't do well with exponential change. Really where the problem is fast dynamic change. By the time you've a number or an idea, everything is down the track much further than you think. The landmarks are close at hand and so when you pass them, they fall behind quickly. You make a change now, the track continues for what seems a long distance before you see the bow move off the line.

Fast moving, dynamic. Not the strong suite of journalists, bureaucrats, politicians, or social scientists. Congress seems so last week because they've taken their own sweet time and got left behind.

#8 JK Brown on 2020-03-22 17:25 (Reply)

What you're describing is known as the Speed of Information or more generally, the Knowledge Problem.

It's why planned economies fail or at least fail to keep up with more market-oriented economies, where local prices give people signals about how to optimize their buying choices.

Sounds awfully dry, but it's the operating software for prosperous economy.

#8.1 PubliusII on 2020-03-22 17:44 (Reply)

Dr. Bliss, thanks for posting everything. Always good to read many points of view.

#9 grant1863 on 2020-03-22 18:49 (Reply)

Beloved Ancient Mom is mad as hell at the hysteria. I kid you not that she can't believe we seem to be burning down the world my niece will inherit to maybe (and that's a gigantic maybe) add some time to the end of Ancient Mom's life.

Love the Maggie's Farm People.

While we're alive, let us live.

#10 Kristi Seibert on 2020-03-22 19:30 (Reply)

Note to article got bumped to Zero Hedge ... and there's a pretty good rant on twitter dumping on the article and author. A lot of heat in the twitter thread, but can't understand the counterpoints enough to assess. Perhaps the Good Doctor could review and give us some thoughts.

#11 NEBrooks (Link) on 2020-03-22 21:04 (Reply)

I would second that. I've never heard of either man before, but the first 2 dozen or so of the Bergstrom's Twitter responses to A. Ginn's essay were (it seemed to me) based more on self-inflating the credentials of a snotty, pompous ass than it was on a reasoned rebuttal by a scientist. More than ever I think we need to return to science as a structured ongoing argument in the face of the data rather than as some kind of exercise where scorn or ad-hominem attack is seen as a valid way to advance the discussion. Bergstrom hasn't added to his credibility much, and now he's complaining about all the trolls that have come calling. Maybe they're just 'deniers', eh?

#11.1 Aggie on 2020-03-22 22:30 (Reply)

My take too, Aggie.

Also, I have no use for his “only experts in particular field of study X can understand numbers and graphs” argument. That is simply bullshit and anyone who puts it out there is telling me their opinions on everything else can be safely ignored. It’s disqualifying.

In fact I would flip it around and say too many people manipulate data and graphs to remove context and advance points that are not even true, and they do it specifically to fool the general public. THAT is a far bigger problem today, so let’s just let Mr Ginn have his say and let people who take the time to read in depth on these things sort it all out, eh?

#11.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-03-24 08:24 (Reply)

Consider the costs
The rush to impose sweeping restrictions on public and commercial life across the entire economy should be more carefully evaluated

Heather Mac Donald

https://spectator.us/consider-costs-coronavirus/

#12 Jake on 2020-03-22 23:37 (Reply)

The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn pleases.

Josiah Stamp

#13 Dbltap on 2020-03-23 01:31 (Reply)

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Sunday, March 22. 2020

A little data