Maggie's Farm

We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.

Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page

Much Sorry with Delays
Birth, Death and All That Stuff in Between
How to Honor Labor Day, Every Day
My Yom Kippur Miracle (Repost from 2010)
Good intro to fly casting
Peach update, with pie
NYC update
Easy for you to say: To the elites on mass immigration
For NYC on 9/11, Sailors' Snug Harbor
Pickled Peaches
Water Shoes
Labor Costs in U.S.
Your "identity"
Good news about The Great Courses
Uses of Hot Pepper Jelly/Sauce, Chutneys, and Jams
A Saturday Drive to Litchfield County, CT
How to Pick a Kayak
Civilized: Fruit forks and knives
Loads of kayaking on Cape Cod
Psychology Experiments' Questionable Results

Categories


All categories

Quicksearch

Links

Blog Administration

Open login screen

RSS Readers

Add to Google

Subscribe with Bloglines

Friday, March 13. 2020

Epidemics


Epidemics typically fizzle out with warm weather, and through "herd immunity." 


The real purpose of precautions is to change the shape of the epidemic curve from a steep up and down to a slower, gradual up and down. That helps with demands on medical care, but does not reduce exposure, or the numbers of people exposed. Viral epidemics can not be stopped, just slowed. Flattening the curve is the purpose of public health.


Thus far, the Covid-19 has not been very dangerous compared with the ordinary flu for those under 70. We'll know in the next two or three weeks as the curve peaks, and begins to decline in the US.



Posted by Dr. Joy Bliss in Medical at 13:53 | Comments (9) | Trackbacks (0)

Trackbacks
Trackback specific URI for this entry

No Trackbacks

Comments
Display comments as (Linear | Threaded)

“Viral epidemics can not be stopped, just slowed”

Incorrect. When a viral outbreak can be contained within a single population it can be stopped. Unstoppable outbreaks only happens when there is community transmission, which could have been avoided if the Chinese government had acted quickly and followed established public health protocols.
#1 Jm01 on 2020-03-13 15:29 (Reply)
The expectation that warm weather will throttle the virus is comforting but isn't Iran (and Italy, for that matter) having warm weather? Certainly they had outsized exposure to Chinese, but still...

As for the danger of the CORVID-19 compared to other flues, I hope that continues.
#2 mudbug on 2020-03-13 15:36 (Reply)
Sydney, Australia is also having warm weather.
92 so far, 2 dead, 4 recovered, according to the Johns Hopkins CSSE site.
#2.1 Daniel K Day on 2020-03-14 00:08 (Reply)
When the CDC says the virus can live on certain surfaces for up to a couple days, it's at temperatures approximating humans, i.e. mid 90's. And don't forget the MERs virus, which ripped through the Arab nations a few years ago, also a corona type virus, also warm climate. Singapore has few cases because they've gotten on top of spread-prevention with social isolation rules, as have a few other nations. Remus' adage to Stay Away From Crowds is sage.
#2.2 Aggie on 2020-03-14 09:51 (Reply)
If you get the infection rate to less than 1.0 people infected on the average by an infected person, the disease does die out. Like a population with too low a birthrate.
#3 rhhardin on 2020-03-13 17:50 (Reply)
With 500 dead, Iran to empty the streets, check all 80 million people for virus

https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-500-dead-iran-to-empty-the-streets-check-all-80-million-people-for-virus/

500 out of 80,000,000.

Boy, I am quaking in my boots at that mortality rate. Where can I run and hide?? And Iran supposedly has it bad.
#4 feeblemind on 2020-03-13 19:30 (Reply)
Fatality numbers out of Iran are highly questionable, like NK. Considering the deaths of some top political leaders, something big is going on there.
#4.1 jay on 2020-03-14 07:20 (Reply)
Say Your Prayers and Take Your Chances
Remembering the 1957 Asian flu pandemic

https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic
#5 feeblemind on 2020-03-13 19:31 (Reply)
The fatality numbers are low now, but it could be unstoppable later as a critical mass is reached (Italy). There is no significant herd immunity to slow things down (unlike flu). Some viruses fizzle in warm weather but not all. Considering that this is also spreading in the southern US, I'm not sure that will help much.

Stay away from 'homeless' camps.
#6 jay on 2020-03-14 07:16 (Reply)

Add Comment
(Your e-mail will not show in your comment)

By commenting on this site you agree to the site rules listed here. Email
addresses will not be displayed and will only be used for email notifications.

Quick reference guide: [i] italics [/i], [b] bold [/b], [u] underline [/u],
[url] (web address) [/url]. More tips here.

Enclosing asterisks marks text as bold (*word*), underscore are made via _word_.
E-Mail addresses will not be displayed and will only be used for E-Mail notifications.

To prevent automated Bots from commentspamming, please enter the string you see in the image below in the appropriate input box. Your comment will only be submitted if the strings match. Please ensure that your browser supports and accepts cookies, or your comment cannot be verified correctly.
CAPTCHA

BBCode format allowed
 
 
A Chris Southern Consulting website.