Maggie's Farm

Spend some time in China. You will be shocked how they have surpassed the U.S. in a number of ways. Technology and infrastructure are the most evident.

I recently read an article by some American "academic authority" deep-state type who was claiming that the Chinese people were still riding around on bicycles and had no knowledge of the outside world. Are you kidding me, how clueless can you be? They are more wired than Americans are (even if government completely controls the inputs). The country with the largest number of travelers abroad is China.

Yes, I realize the New China does not extend into the rural areas, but a large percentage of the people now live in the cities (which are huge compared to American cities--10 million people is considered a medium sized "second tier" or "third tier" city in China); and I don't think America compares very well when you start taking into account things like decaying U.S. cities and its own rural poverty.

I am not pro China (I actually am pro-Taiwan and increasingly worry about what is going to happen to Taiwan which would be a disaster, the Taiwanese people are super nice and still retain much of the traditional Chinese culture which was wiped out in Mainland China), but China is clearly the biggest threat to the U.S., economically, politically and militarily.

In comparison, Russia is not a threat to the U.S. And if you listen to Putin, he actually is a lot more rational and conservative than most of the Democrats today. Putin mainly wants to reunite the traditionally Russian areas and to protect Russia's borders from crazy people. (Which could include the U.S., depending on who gets in power.)

China on the other hand is aggressively expansionistic and has a huge chip on its shoulder dating back to the Opium Wars and the decay and fall of the Ching Dynasty. Any problem can be blamed on something bad that those outside of China are trying to do to the country. And they are not constrained by Western ideas of ethics and morality, which I think present Russia is to a certain extent, especially since it has re-embraced its Orthodox Christian heritage.

I think one of the most interesting things is it's pretty clear that China has an organized program to steal back its artworks from around the world--most of which were taken by the West from China during the "turbulent" 19th century. Chinese TV and dramas always refer to the period from say the 1840s through to the founding of the PRC as the "turbulent times" or similar phrases with the "bad guys" being Westerners and Japan. Yes, Chinese TV still can refer to Westerners as "foreign devils," and the Japanese are just "devils" (or get called worse names).

The main problem with Dalio's analysis is that China is not a "rule of law" country. It depends largely on the whims of the CCP and, even more, Xi Jinping. The plus is that China can implement change quickly. The negative is you have no assurance that what the rules are today will be the rules tomorrow. That really affects whether you are willing to invest there.