We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
This guy should start giving TED talks. That way, he can ignore key details; and nobody will argue with him. What "Ray" has done in this video is to create the impression that he is simply a dispassionate observer; sort of a lightweight Henry Kissinger. And as a dispassionate observer, he is not called upon to make any value judgements. He's just recounting history, as if it were the unfolding of inevitable events.
But sadly, this guy is just an amateur. I don't blame him for wanting to put a positive spin the on the China story; after all, that's where he is supposed to be an expert. If he says one bad word about China, he'll never see Shanghai again. With that thought in mind, "Ray" isn't going to take any chances. Not only will he ignore China's demographic crisis, unfair trade policies, fascist surveillance systems, and widespread censorship; he's willing to ignore the fact that there's a larger set of questions that must be asked about China's future. But a dispassionate observer wouldn't do that. So there's no need to question China's population growth. For him, China is the world's oyster; end of story. Ray is neither responsible, nor well-rounded. But at least he's honest: He's trying to sell you some Chinese stocks and bonds. And the Brooklyn Bridge, too.
If you notice, as evidence of China's success he lists technologies which are very political. Artificial Intelligence, computer wearables (and insertables) , virtual reality, and autonomous driving. All of these technologies imply the existence of a centralized hierarchy; with the chain of command leading toward an unidentified source of authority.
That centralized hierarchy is the communist party. And "Ray" knows it. But Ray won't call himself a communist, he'll say that he's a TED Talk visionary. Visionaries, you see, don't get hung-up on the unpleasant details of enforcing moral law. And they certainly don't turn Shanghai into a glass parking lot.
Spend some time in China. You will be shocked how they have surpassed the U.S. in a number of ways. Technology and infrastructure are the most evident.
I recently read an article by some American "academic authority" deep-state type who was claiming that the Chinese people were still riding around on bicycles and had no knowledge of the outside world. Are you kidding me, how clueless can you be? They are more wired than Americans are (even if government completely controls the inputs). The country with the largest number of travelers abroad is China.
Yes, I realize the New China does not extend into the rural areas, but a large percentage of the people now live in the cities (which are huge compared to American cities--10 million people is considered a medium sized "second tier" or "third tier" city in China); and I don't think America compares very well when you start taking into account things like decaying U.S. cities and its own rural poverty.
I am not pro China (I actually am pro-Taiwan and increasingly worry about what is going to happen to Taiwan which would be a disaster, the Taiwanese people are super nice and still retain much of the traditional Chinese culture which was wiped out in Mainland China), but China is clearly the biggest threat to the U.S., economically, politically and militarily.
In comparison, Russia is not a threat to the U.S. And if you listen to Putin, he actually is a lot more rational and conservative than most of the Democrats today. Putin mainly wants to reunite the traditionally Russian areas and to protect Russia's borders from crazy people. (Which could include the U.S., depending on who gets in power.)
China on the other hand is aggressively expansionistic and has a huge chip on its shoulder dating back to the Opium Wars and the decay and fall of the Ching Dynasty. Any problem can be blamed on something bad that those outside of China are trying to do to the country. And they are not constrained by Western ideas of ethics and morality, which I think present Russia is to a certain extent, especially since it has re-embraced its Orthodox Christian heritage.
I think one of the most interesting things is it's pretty clear that China has an organized program to steal back its artworks from around the world--most of which were taken by the West from China during the "turbulent" 19th century. Chinese TV and dramas always refer to the period from say the 1840s through to the founding of the PRC as the "turbulent times" or similar phrases with the "bad guys" being Westerners and Japan. Yes, Chinese TV still can refer to Westerners as "foreign devils," and the Japanese are just "devils" (or get called worse names).
The main problem with Dalio's analysis is that China is not a "rule of law" country. It depends largely on the whims of the CCP and, even more, Xi Jinping. The plus is that China can implement change quickly. The negative is you have no assurance that what the rules are today will be the rules tomorrow. That really affects whether you are willing to invest there.
Your optimism and goodwill is admirable! And I agree that China has made a lot of progress. But the whole "China Story" is going to go down the drain, like yesterday's bath water. And when it's all over, the China to which you refer will no longer exist. China must be destroyed; before it destroys the human race.
I'm sure that you think that I must be an internet crank. And you are free to think that. But please allow me to explain that I am a retired English teacher, and I have spent many years in Asia, and India. This does not mean that whatever I say is "true." It just means that I have put in thousands of classroom hours with Asians and Indians from all walks of life.
You made a good point when you said that the Chinese are not constrained by morality. But I'm not sure that you understand how true that your claim really is. The Chinese are building every type of weapon that they can think of, so that their dreams of conquest will someday become a reality. We have a choice: we can stop them now, while it is still possible to do so; or we can wait until later.
China's goal is world domination. By war, by economics by subterfuge, by any means necessary. Keep your eyes on Hong Kong. I suspect that a lot of the protestors there have been identified and will be disappeared in due time. As for Taiwan, they are doomed. The first time the West is to engaged in other problems on the other side of the world Taiwan is toast. I don't have a lot of hope for Australia or New Zealand either in the long run.
Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand will be fine; although they will probably take some hits. The important thing to remember when deploying atomic weapons is the objective: Reduce the number of survivors to the lowest possible level, as an a act of compassion. In some cases, the same area may have to be treated several times. Allowing millions of injured people to survive would be inhumane.
Beijing, depending on how you want to define it, has an area of about 300 square miles. That means using at least twenty hydrogen bombs for the first run. Complete sterilization could require five or six runs. The resulting radiation would dissipate in about thirty years.