We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Wednesday, July 17. 2019
Wednesday morning links
Reflecting on humanity’s first steps on the lunar surface, fifty years after the epochal event.
Moon landing: John Glenn, and planets?
From the NY Daily News!
Don't Scoff at Influencers. They're Taking Over the World.
Reverend Amy Butler Outliberals Her NYC Church
A magnificent building, but politics replaced God there decades ago. Whitened sepulchre.
We All Wanted to Love the Women’s Soccer Team
Few soccer fans care about womens' soccer
The ‘Lady of the House’ Who Was Long Entangled With Jeffrey Epstein
She is now in hiding in England
What Do You Do When Mental Health Professionals Treating Trump Derangement Syndrome Have TDS Themselves?
Then it's called a folie a deux. Like some marriages.
A Sophomoric Look at Climate Change
The Plot against Kavanaugh
TRUMP IS MAKING OMAR, CORTEZ AND TLAIB INTO THE PUBLIC FACE OF THE DEMOCRATS
Farage: Von der Leyen Wants to Build ‘Updated Form of Communism’, Advance EU Army
Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 07:00 | Comments (18) | Trackbacks (0)
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A sophomoric look at climate change... sigh. It was pretty clear pretty fast that the so-called climate experts were crappy programmers. There were a lot of variables that weren't covered in the initial programs, by their own admission. Solar variance, El Nino, cloud cover variability... But it didn't really matter - so what if you missed some things and kept your programs and data sets confidential, and you were constantly 'adjusting' the data sets in order to get the results you wanted? Scream "The Science Is Settled!" enough and that covers any and all criticism, right?
Get the ball rolling and the money coming in, and people will shut up and accept the flawed models as reality. And don't forget the 'Five Years to Save The Planet!' routine - that's always an attention-getter.
But 30+ years on and now the models are really not matching reality. If you were concerned that CAGW might be real, would you be reassured that the models and reality were not matching up, with reality being on the low side? Not the CAGW screamers - they've been doubling down that WE MUST DO SOMETHING.
It's not about the science, it's about the validation they get from believing the Earth is going to end and only THEY care enough to do anything. And they're doing to do it whether we want it or not, whether it's the right thing to do or not, whether other countries (who pollute a LOT more) do it or not. We're just along for the ride in their little ego-stroking psychodrama.
The first paragraph was the shocker to me. Solving two linear equations in two variables is eighth-grade stuff—if you are an undergrad science student, this isn’t math, it’s arithmetic. Way back when our president was a peanut farmer, you were way behind as a science major if you couldn’t do single variable integral and differential calculus when you left high school. How on earth can one be a climate scientist, even one in training, with an eighth m-grade grasp of mathematics?
No kidding. If I were paying college tuition for a kid who announced at the end of his freshman year that he had just learned how to solve simultaneous linear equations--one equation needed for each variable--I'd also wonder what kind of coma he'd been in since 8th grade. No wonder voters fall for this nonsense.
It's ironic in a way - after so many years of making dire predictions that could not be substantiated (mostly because of the AGW Industry's steadfast refusal to defend and discuss their models in a scientific way), they are now confronted with the worst possible outcome, an existential threat to their grant-writing machine. Forty years of climate flim-flam has created a mountain of failed results that can no longer be explained or ignored. If they'd kept to the scientific method and used honest research habits, climate prediction science would have been much better off and probably a lot more advanced than its current state. Of course, it has also transpired that the true purpose of much of this racket was to harness the raw power of national economies for other purposes, a political/social power grab. Time to keep the (cooling) bath water and throw out the baby.
In my long career in computers and programming I spent some time programming computer models. I usually asked the client what they wanted the results to be. I programmed computer games too and they are eerily similar. I always wrote in a back door or two and I always programmed models and games to favor certain factors more than others. I did this not to make the results wrong but rather to deal with known problems in calculating and comparing data that was intrinsically not equal. But the simple fact is I could make the results favor whatever I wanted to if I wanted to. I have always suspected that all of the climate models were designed to favor a result that proved global warming and not to produce real results.
The climate change "scientists" are from an alternate universe...their reality is from the alternate universe. Do remember that they are also government educated and government financed. Time to kill the student loan program and end government grants and scholarships. And we want government to provide healthcare????is everyone out of their mind?
When I first saw the Amy Butler story I immediately thought "Bet it's UCC." I didn't bother to check until today, and saw that my prejudice was confirmed. I did facepalm that I did not reach the followup conclusion, American Baptist Union.
I grew up UCC. It was a major part of why I was a liberal in 1965. The change in emphasis from personal morality to social/political morality has been going on for a long time, since...before the moon landing.
The ‘Lady of the House’ Who Was Long Entangled With Jeffrey Epstein
She is now in hiding in England
Do we think she is hoping for the same treatment England gave the SE Asian traffickers of young, at-risk girls or protection from a relationship with the Royals?
The plot thickens. Wikileaks got their info about the Democrat shenanigans from Seth Rich and not from hacking the DNC computers. But Seth Rich's leaks was discovered and he was killed for exposing the DNC's "crimes and misdemeanors". But think about this for a minute. We just went through a 2 year + long investigation of Trump for the non-crime of colluding but which we now know was really a coverup and diversion of the real crime the DNC committed. And now we find out that the person who exposed some of DNC's activity was killed. Does anyone really believe that the FBI and later Mueller never connected those dots. And when they did understand that Seth Rich was killed for it they choose to double down on the coverup to keep it all hidden away.
This goes deep and I fear it will never be investigated. IMHO it is part of the greater conspiracy to destroy America and very much connected to the four fake American representatives who are spilling their bile on national TV. Where is the free press in all of this?
I don't know any more than any of the rest of us that Seth Richwas killed by the DNC, but I think it very revealing of the general character of those involved that Donna Brazile thought it was possible when she herself was exposing secrets about where the money had gone, secrets that should be a continuing embarrassment to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. She believed they were capable of it and took measures to protect herself. That doesn't mean they did it, but it is worth noting.
Also worth noting is that this is completely down the memory hole now.
Also, the DNC was was very late offering a reward and if memory servers, it was a pretty minor reward.
Whoever coined the description "the four morons of the apocalypse" was on the right track too. They were made for this moment. Is it any wonder that I ponder whether they are paid tools for Trump.
Trump being Trump has pulled back the curtain, like Toto, and exposed a lame and subpar political/ media/government complex. Did he anticipate this? Did he know what turning on the light and exposing them was going to reveal. Would Eisenhower have warned us about them? How can they not see it for themselves, or is it just their shtick, their revenue stream?
They've convinced themselves they're the absolute bestest and brightest and most wonderfulest people on the planet, so OF COURSE they're not going to have to work their way up through the normal Congressional food chain. OJT? Forget that! They've got to save the country!
How? Hey, they were BORN to run this country. It doesn't matter they don't know how - everything they touch should magically just work the way they expect it to.
In military terms, it's like some E-1s are now wanting to take over running an entire base - with predictable (and disastrous) results.
They don't know what they don't know - and they don't want to know it.
Well, if the mental health professionals all have TDS, the APA can just take a vote and declare TDS normal behavior, like they did for homosexuality. Problem solved, no therapy needed.
How's this for a "climate change' formula?
"We tell you that mankind makes weather because the government pays us to do it".
Models that deal with change over time generally are based on differential equations, which are solved numerically by breaking time into very small steps. I didn't see any references to differential equations in the linked article.
I think what the simultaneous linear equations are probably about is trying to estimate the impact of various variables by fitting them to past data, in a manner very similar to multiple linear regression. And multiple linear regression, while often very useful, is also well-known for yielding spurious results when the number of variables is too large in comparison to the number of historical data points.
Congrats to the Atlantic on getting through almost four paragraphs before injecting race into the moon landing article. Thanks to their astute observation we can now enjoy our collective, retroactive guilt that the mission was accomplished by four white men.
Unbelievable; this is the second article I’ve seen that portrays Maxwell in a sympathetic light.
““Her father was a swashbuckling rogue,” Mr. Mason said in an interview. “Jeffrey had a less social persona, but he was in his way swashbuckling, too.”
Epstein is a human trafficker and convicted pedophile. I wouldn’t call him ‘swashbuckling’ so much as human scum.
What is wrong with these people.