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Tuesday, January 9. 2018

Photo is from a buddy who took a newbie skiing in CT on the weekend. Cold winter sports are great fun. Skiing is almost equal to sex, but it's (skiing) more of a hassle. Outdoor skating and pick-up hockey is a blast. Paddle is also, if you don't have a bum shoulder like I do. Our local paddle courts have been packed every night for the past week. Best thing about 5 degree (F) outdoor sports? Beers later. Winter is for outdoor fun.

Scientists Make Coldest Liquid Water Ever, And It's Weirder Than They Imagined

Silicon Valley Moonbats Pay Through the Nose to Poison Themselves with Raw Water

Water out of the pond, no vaccines - brilliant

Psychologist: Having best friends should be banned because it’s ‘exclusionary’

Marijuana Should Be Legal, Even If We Don't Like It

I agree with that. Bruce doesn't

Beijing bets on facial recognition in a big drive for total surveillance

Why?

Tough SOB: SAS soldier 'chopped off ISIS thug's head with SHOVEL and used his gun to kill more militants' - The British sergeant was said to have run out of ammunition during a bloody battle in Afghanistan

How Zombie Theories come to be

In happier days for the company, when Sears, Roebuck introduced its first catalogue, it generated as much disruption to the retail industry of the time as Amazon has today.

How Activists Took Control of a University: The Case Study of Evergreen State

Canada's Carbon Taxes, Other Boondoggles Add Pain to Record Cold Winter

In Climate Science, Predictions Are Hard, Especially About The Future

Al Gore’s ‘Inconvenient Freeze’

Why established businesses love government regulation

Mattis on War, Tyranny, Revolution and Body Counts

The 3.1% gap between the jobless rate for blacks (6.8%) and whites (3.7%) in December was also the narrowest black-white jobless rate gap going back to January 1972

Why do 'Temporary Protected Status' refugees need 18 months to leave America?

Trump Shocks World by Insisting “Temporary” Means Temporary

LEAKED MEMO: DACA Recipients Are ‘Critical’ to Democrats’ ‘Future Electoral Success’

It's just that simple: If you don't like your voters, get new ones

With D.C. Distracted, Immigration Debate Reaches Critical Point

New Department Of Labor Report Reveals Rampant Embezzlement By Union Employees Around U.S.

How the federal tax overhaul could reshape state budgets

NYT: The decline of anti-Trumpism

Economy: Trump crazy like a fox

Surprise: When The Government Goes To War Against The Economy, The Economy Fails To Grow

Why 2018 Will Be a Banner Year for Worker Wages

Jobs are going begging out there - they will hire anybody

Trump the politician:

It’s a zero-sum struggle for attention that rewards the most immoderate voices – and, without question, Donald Trump is a master of the game. His unbridled language mobilizes his anti-elite followers, even as his policies appeal to more conventional Republicans and conservatives.

Frau Merkel gets a lesson in free speech

GERMAN ENERGY POLICY ON THE ROCKS

What We Get For the Hundreds of Millions We Give To Terrorists

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 05:06 | Comments (34) | Trackbacks (0)

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What is "paddle" (mentioned in the intro paragraph)

#1 Harley Cudney on 2018-01-09 08:34 (Reply)

A tennis-like (doubles) sport played on an elevated deck enclosed in chicken wire. Invented by rich dudes in the Fox Meadow neighborhood of Scarsdale, to keep themselves busy during he winter.

#1.1 Scullman on 2018-01-09 10:24 (Reply)

I guess 'temporary' in the description is like the term 'voluntary' in the federal income tax.

#2 Jay on 2018-01-09 09:24 (Reply)

Re: Beijing bets on facial recognition in a big drive for total surveillance

If I were more clever, I could make a joke about a Chinese facial recognition computer query returning 1 billion hits, but I'm not so I won't.

#3 Jerryskids on 2018-01-09 09:37 (Reply)

"Marijuana Should Be Legal"

I think drug use should be decriminalized. I think selling drugs or giving them to minors should be a crime with jail time.

It is interesting that my state just made it illegal for anyone to buy cigarettes until age 21 (I thought we were adults at age 18) but a couple years ago made recreational use of pot legal. What is the message they are trying to send?

Pot is a drug that incapacitates you. Would you get into a taxi where the driver has smoked pot> Would you allow a doctor to operate on your child if they had smoked pot?

Pot is also an addictive drug. When you 18 year old child smokes legal pot it is likely that they will become addicted and will as a result never achieve their potential in life. It is likely that they will pass on this addiction to their children, your grandchildren. The odds of them having an accident and perhaps killing themselves or one of your grandchildren has increased dramatically. How is this a good thing?

Addictive mind altering drugs are bad and should be discouraged not encouraged.

#4 GoneWithTheWind on 2018-01-09 09:39 (Reply)

"Having best friends should be banned because it’s ‘exclusionary’"

"THE SIX STAGES OF A FAILED PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY"

You need to juxtapose better ;-)

From the latter article, "there's a strong case to be made that psychology is barely a science." Really? Really? That case still needs to be made?

Trump's economy
Trump is proving that efforts to improve the US were readily available. The legacy GOP really had no interest in helping the US. Their campaigns were just theater, serving some puppet-masters who pull strings of most candidates.

#5 DrTorch on 2018-01-09 09:44 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Surprise: When The Government Goes To War Against The Economy, The Economy Fails To Grow ... give him credit for accelerating economic growth?

GDP 2007-2017

QUOTE:

... The economy did grow in 1933-36, but way below its potential.

1933, -1.3%
1934, 10.8%
1935, 8.9%
1936, 12.9%

Looks like very substantial growth rates once the New Deal gained traction.

QUOTE:

Why 2018 Will Be a Banner Year for Worker Wages

Sure. Look at unemployment over the last ten years. After years of steady growth, there is little remaining slack in the labor markets. That means wages and benefits should increase (barring external shocks). Tax cuts should juice the economy somewhat.

#6 Zachriel on 2018-01-09 10:28 (Reply)

Oh look, you were dishonest again and only reported the U3, instead of the U6. Oh, and you selected an arbitrary start time, failing to point out that those number soared exactly when the Dems took over Congress in 2008.

Let's also mention that things will get "juiced" once we reduce the number of immigrants in the country.

#6.1 DrTorch on 2018-01-09 10:52 (Reply)

DrTorch: only reported the U3, instead of the U6

Same story. There was a rapid rise during the Great Recession, then a long decline during the expansion that began shortly after Obama took office.

U6 Unemployment 2007-2017

DrTorch: Oh, and you selected an arbitrary start time, failing to point out that those number soared exactly when the Dems took over Congress in 2008.

The Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, but the housing bubble was already primed by 2006.

#6.1.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-09 11:03 (Reply)

It's real easy to get GDP numbers to rise when you increase government spending by 30% in a single year, as was done from 1931-1932. Actual private sector industrial output remained stagnant through those years.

As to unemployment, even though nominal unemployment rates are near their historical lows, the workforce participation rate remains around 2.5% lower than it did previous to 2008, at levels not seen since the 1980s, when married women with children returned to the workforce in large numbers. There are two possibilities here: either baby boomers are retiring out of the workforce, or the number of people unable or unwilling to seek work has increased. I suspect it is a combination of both factors.

#6.2 another guy named Dan on 2018-01-09 11:22 (Reply)

another guy named Dan: It's real easy to get GDP numbers to rise when you increase government spending by 30% in a single year, as was done from 1931-1932. Actual private sector industrial output remained stagnant through those years.

Real GDP collapsed during that period.

Year, Real GDP
1930, -8.5%
1931, -6.4%
1932, -12.9%
1933, -1.3%
1934, 10.8%
1935, 8.9%
1936, 12.9%

The rise of federal spending before Roosevelt barely covered the loss of spending by states due to the precipitous drop in state tax revenues, so the policy failed as a stimulus. Roosevelt more than doubled federal spending by 1934 leading to strong real GDP growth, then it rose nearly 30x (compared to 1930) with WWII, which definitively ended the Great Depression.

Year, $billions in federal spending
1930, $3.32
1931, $3.58
1932, $4.66
1933, $4.60
1934, $6.54
1935, $6.41
1936, $8.23
1937, $7.58
1938, $6.85
1939, $9.15
1940, $9.48
1941, $13.62
1942, $35.07
1943, $78.47
1944, $91.19
1945, $92.57

another guy named Dan: either baby boomers are retiring out of the workforce, or the number of people unable or unwilling to seek work has increased. I suspect it is a combination of both factors.

Also, young people delaying their entry into the workforce due to increased educational attainment. Most of the difference in workforce participation is structural, though there may be some lingering cyclical causation.

#6.2.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-09 12:01 (Reply)

Again, you miss the point. Increased government spending gets counted as increased GDP even though it does not lead to any increased wealth. You don't stimulate the productive economy by spending government money on things that people neither want nor need. Paying people to do non-productive things does not create wealth, it destroys it. This is the major cause of the late 1930s "double dip" recession - as soon as the Federal spending prop was removed from the economy, the stagnant manufacturing and agricultural sectors flopped. It was only the fact that the US was able to effectively import prosperity from Europe, where the powers were conveniently blowing up the productive sectors of each others economies, that led to the boom beginning in 1938 through the post-war years.

#6.2.1.1 another guy named Dan on 2018-01-09 12:35 (Reply)

Stop making sense while destroying the kiddiez delusionz.

They're on a roll.

#6.2.1.1.1 drowningpuppies on 2018-01-09 14:36 (Reply)

another guy named Dan: Increased government spending gets counted as increased GDP even though it does not lead to any increased wealth.

Some government spending certainly leads to increased wealth, such as the new roads, bridges, and dams, that were build during New Deal.

In any case, from 1933-1936, federal spending rose from $4.6 billion to $8.2 billion, while GDP increased from $57 billion to $85 billion. From 1933-1940, federal spending rose to $9.5 billion, while GDP rose to $103 billion. Federal spending per the GDP equation does not account for more than a fraction of total growth. There was a strong multiplier due to the amount of unused capacity.

#6.2.1.1.2 Zachriel on 2018-01-09 18:52 (Reply)

Re Evergreen State.
Nothing new here. I was an undergraduate in the 1960s and remember the student demonstrations. The college administrators always talked a good game then collapsed like a wet paper bag. We used to joke that there is nothing more craven, cowardly and hypocritical that a college president.

#7 Ray on 2018-01-09 10:55 (Reply)

In the mid-70s my college buddy thought seriously about transferring to Evergreen to study how to be a shaman. I don't think this trend is new.

#7.1 Texan99 on 2018-01-09 13:42 (Reply)

"Winter is for outdoor fun."

It was barely more than a century ago that winter was for trying to keep your mode of transportation alive, along with your milk and egg suppliers. Although, after the snows abated to afford walking mobility, there was time for fun as little other work could be accomplished until the Spring thaw.

#8 JK Brown on 2018-01-09 11:37 (Reply)

Re: Photo. The problem with modern cameras (and snapshot takers) is that they don't understand why their nice snow scene comes out grey instead of white...

#9 Earl Wertheimer on 2018-01-09 11:54 (Reply)

Rampant embezzlement by union employees? Who woulda thunk it?????

Frau Merkel: Thou shalt have no other words before you but those the government approves of.

#10 Sam L. on 2018-01-09 12:13 (Reply)

> Evergreen is interesting, in my opinion, because it provides a case study of an institution where a small minority of ideologically motivated people have been able to exert immense influence. <
-----
Well, no. it's downright boring, or should be by now. This is a phenomenon that has taken place in all manner of organizations: churches, colleges, associations, political parties, and whole nations. You just need about 5% of ideological bullies and about 10% of brainless enforcers. The remaining 85% become de facto slaves.

#11 Michael on 2018-01-09 12:21 (Reply)

"Canada's Carbon Taxes, Other Boondoggles Add Pain to Record Cold Winter"

Whatever are you talking about?

Why, back in 2015 we elected the perfect Canadian government to deal with the incoming Clinton administration.

What? Oh yeah, right...

#12 JJM on 2018-01-09 12:24 (Reply)

Canadian Liberals should be taken out behind the woodshed and given a damned good walloping!

#12.1 Confused Old Misfit on 2018-01-09 19:25 (Reply)

Evergreen State College was formed under threat from the local Black Panther's group. The liberal group within the community supported the ideal that the typical college enrollment/curriculum strategy prevented African/Americans from getting ahead. Therefore, a "new curriculum/pedagogy" was created. One in which every student passes and receives "the paper". Evergreen was created back in 1967 and this
guy was the leader of the group. For many years he ran the show whether he was president or academic officer. They finally threw his white wife off of campus. Not to worry she got another job at a university even more liberal where she was Academic Dean.

http://blogs.evergreen.edu/photo/in-memoriam-rudy-martin/

#13 faculty wife on 2018-01-09 13:33 (Reply)

No, marijuana should not be legalized. We don't need ANOTHER substance, similar to alcohol, that is legal and impairs your ability to drive and work.

If we already are worried about binge drinkers, drunk drivers, alcohol dependence, babies harmed b/c of 'legal' alcohol, why in the hell would we think of legalizing marijuana? Makes NO sense to me at all.

What I do approve of: allowing for the study of marijuana as a pharmaceutical. Have actual studies proving efficacy, dosage levels, use in children, etc. and then regulate it and sell it like any other pharmaceutical in this country.

The minute marijuana is legalized, other drugs of choice will come into the argument: what about heroin addicts? meth users? Ecstasy?

#14 MissT on 2018-01-09 14:14 (Reply)

We're often admonished to remember that weather is not climate. Thirty years of weather, however, becomes climate by definition. Every year the climate forecasts look forward 30 or more years; every year the climate forecast performed 30 years ago can be compared to the last 30 years of weather. They never match--they never even improve--which should tell us that the assumptions informing our models are as wrong now as they were 30 years ago. The climate modelers have grossly mistaken the underlying mechanism; they're modeling a process that isn't occurring.

The main problem seems to be an assumption that there is a large, positive CO2 feedback, something for which there is as little theoretical basis as there is empirical data. (Evidence for CO2 greenhouse effect, yes; evidence for heightened effect from feedback, no.) Meanwhile, the climate is perhaps slowly warming, just as you might expect in an inter-glacial period, though there's enough noise in the signal to make short-term trend markers wildly ambiguous.

#15 Texan99 on 2018-01-09 14:20 (Reply)

Texan99: They never match--they never even improve--which should tell us that the assumptions informing our models are as wrong now as they were 30 years ago.

Actually, models and observations are in close agreement concerning global mean temperature anomaly. As you can see, observations had been running at the low end of the expected range, but the last few years have put observation back in the middle of the range.

#15.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-09 19:01 (Reply)

One needs to use geological time frames than 30 years for climate. Say 2K to 3K years.
Matching model projections to observation is a mugs game. There are far too many opportunities for graft.
Trends are what count and models tuned by hindcasting will only extrapolate a trend. They as yet have very little proven predictive ability.
Yes, the climate is changing.
Yes, it has been, as it should have been, getting slightly warmer. It will, at some time in the future, get a lot colder.
Yes, CO2 has been increasing and this is a GOOD thing.
No, the world will not end until the sun dies.
No, climate models should not be used as a basis for policy decisions.
No, climate alarmists should not be allowed to set agendas. They should instead be given sandwich boards and set to wander the streets clothed in sackcloth and dusted with ashes.
An environmental philosophy that is focus on intelligent stewardship of the resources of both land and sea is needed rather than grandiose tax gathering plans mounted under the cover of saving the planet from ourselves.

#15.2 Confused Old Misfit on 2018-01-10 01:12 (Reply)

Confused Old Misfit: One needs to use geological time frames than 30 years for climate. Say 2K to 3K years.

That would depend on the specific facts concerning climate. For instance, if something disrupted the Gulf Stream, we would immediately be able to discern climatic changes. And when large volcanoes erupt, they can have almost immediate climatic effects.

#15.2.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-10 10:11 (Reply)

Wrong.

#15.2.1.1 Confused Old Misfit on 2018-01-10 17:21 (Reply)

Confused Old Misfit: Wrong.

Are you saying a large volcanic eruption can't immediately and observably shift the climate?

#15.2.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-11 09:19 (Reply)

Reading & comprehension are not among your strong points are they.
The word "longer" was inadvertently missing from the quoted portion of the comment.
Nevertheless it's meaning is clear.
No further correspondence will be entered into.

#15.2.1.1.1.1 Confused Old Misfit on 2018-01-11 19:24 (Reply)

Confused Old Misfit: The word "longer" was inadvertently missing from the quoted portion of the comment.

Yes. We read it that way.

Are you saying a large volcanic eruption can't immediately and observably shift the climate?

#15.2.1.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2018-01-12 05:44 (Reply)

Re: The Evergreen State College

I live not five minutes from that cesspool and last year's 'protests' were just the latest chapter of insanity from that institution.

The state should've shut down the school permanently in 1991 when Evergreen students stormed the House of Representatives, barricaded legislators in their offices, hung an Iraqi flag on the rostrum and defecated on legislators' desks.

The place breeds terrorists. And it's paid for with your tax dollars.

#16 jimg on 2018-01-09 14:24 (Reply)

1991 .. .mmmm. . .that's about the time the white wife was forced off of campus.

#17 faculty wife on 2018-01-10 00:46 (Reply)

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Tuesday, January 9. 2018

Tuesday morning links