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Tuesday, May 23. 2017

5 Tips On Learning To Carry Your Grief

Birth Rates are at Historic Lows and Here's a Major Reason

Not to mention birth control

Whole Foods Would Look a Lot Different If It Were Science-Based

Dumb article, slightly correct

The median grade at Harvard College is an A-, and the most frequently awarded mark is an A.

PRINCETON CHOSE MINORITY STUDENTS BASED ON AMOUNT OF "CULTURAL FLAVOR"

GOOD NEWS: Arctic Doom Pushed Off Till 2040

I can wait, but then it will be pushed off to the year 2100 and I do not have that much patience

Coyote: Your labor regulation of the day

Farm Handouts Are Out of Control. Here Are 5 Reasons to Target Them in the Budget.

Corporate welfare

California’s single-payer plan costs $400 billion — twice the state’s entire budget

A reader asked Arnold Kling: In light of everything that has happened in the last few years, have you changed your mind on anything?

Elizabeth Warren Challenged By Real Indians To Prove She Has Indian Ancestry

Challenged by both Dot and Feather Indians

Appeals Ct to Consider Fate of Elizabeth Warren’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Codevilla's The Cold Civil War:

American society has divided along unreconcilable visions of the good, held by countrymen who increasingly regard each other as enemies. Any attempt by either side to coerce the other into submission augurs only the fate that has befallen other peoples who let themselves slide into revolution. It follows that the path to peace must lie in each side’s contentment to have its own way—but only among those who consent to it. This implies limiting the U.S. government’s reach to what it can grasp without wrecking what remains of our national cohesion.

It's called "freedom"

The Media Spreads Fake News About Ivanka Trump

MSM Began To Mention Trump’s Impeachment During His First Week In Office

Schlicter: His not being Hillary Clinton was and remains my sole expectation of Donald Trump’s presidency

Ditto.

Was Vietnam winnable?

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 06:40 | Comments (41) | Trackback (1)

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Birthrates are at Historic Lows...

I think there are many more reasons than the article describes. But the article offers a lot of insight into how government can sure botch things up.

We watched another great old movie, "How Green Was My Valley" which takes place in Wales in a late 19th century coal mining town. There again, children were proud to work and contribute.

#1 LP on 2017-05-23 08:52 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Birth Rates are at Historic Lows and Here's a Major Reason

Yet few would want to return to a time when orphan children were essentially sold for labor, and educational attainment was often rudimentary at best. Modern technological society requires a highly educated workforce. That may mean higher education, such as engineering or science, or technical education, from metalworking to equipment operation. And that means longer periods of education before reaching full participation in the economy.

#1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 10:17 (Reply)

Not one word you write makes sense in the large picture, Zachie.

#1.1.1 jma on 2017-05-23 10:37 (Reply)

jma: Not one word you write makes sense in the large picture

This is where you paint the larger picture as you see it.

Few would want to return to a society where children are forced to abandon school because they have to work out of necessity or compulsion. While there are intrinsic problems with such long periods of education in modern society, it results in much greater prosperity and opportunity for the vast majority of people.

#1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 10:54 (Reply)

Have 2 stepkids, neither of whom has gone to college. Both are doing incredibly well. One is a self-taught techie who took an internship straight out of high school and turned it into a full-time job. He is making $16/hour with a huge opportunity for growth. The other is making about the same doing care of the disabled.

Higher education is not necessary to make a decent salary. And both of the kids I mentioned can take this experience and decide at a later date if they want to work toward a certification or degree that would enhance their jobs or help them move up to higher pay.

#1.1.2 MissT on 2017-05-23 14:02 (Reply)

With a little savvy, they might be able to get their employer to pay for some of their education as they further define their niches. Best wishes!

#1.1.2.1 jma on 2017-05-23 19:21 (Reply)

MissT: Have 2 stepkids, neither of whom has gone to college.

Twelve years of education is more than what most people received a century ago.

Sure, there are still opportunities for people without much education, but it is much more limited than in the past. Even manufacturing and equipment operation now require familiarity with computers and technology. However, there are people for whom college is not a good option, but continuing technical education can still be important.

Presumably, you are a U.S. citizen. Keep in mind that in the past, Americans competed against one another. Now, they are competing against billions of people in India, China and other developing nations, all of whom are becoming better educated, are gaining access to information technology, and are highly motivated. The U.S. still has great advantages, including a highly educated workforce, but competing in the future will generally require more knowledge, not less.

#1.1.2.2 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:48 (Reply)

Agreed, the scenes of men and boys marching off to to the death mines whilst singing welshy songs is epic. That's exactly how I see my employees.

#1.2 Fetterman on 2017-05-23 11:58 (Reply)

Hah! Fetterman, good point.
Okay, I didn't explain what I was thinking very well. I loved the movie but it was tragic. What I loved was how the children wanted to work and contribute to the family. Not all, but many of today's young adults are eating pizza, watching tv, playing computer games.

#1.2.1 LP on 2017-05-23 20:21 (Reply)

Re: birth rates

Pretty much every couple I know wanted a second or third child but they simply could not afford it. I also have two female friends who waited too late to have children due to the necessities of university, grad school, and paying off student loans (necessary for membership in the middle class).

The only people I have met who truly had the number of children they wanted are the very rich and the very poor. Welfare payments increase proportionately for every additional child, which doesn't happen for people working on salary.

#2 JM01 on 2017-05-23 09:05 (Reply)

QUOTE:

the necessities of university, grad school, and paying off student loans (necessary for membership in the middle class).

In other words, they wanted more kids, but they wanted other things more than they wanted those kids.

#2.1 Thos. on 2017-05-23 11:09 (Reply)

Would you rather they live in a trailer park?

Not everyone has a trust fund, you know.

#2.1.1 JM01 on 2017-05-23 16:48 (Reply)

I know lots of people who live in trailer parks. Would I rather someone lived there than in an expensive home, if it meant they could afford the kids they really wanted? Sure, why not? Why is it even a question?

You don't have to have a trust fund to make reasonable decisions about economic trade-offs.

#2.1.1.1 Texan99 on 2017-05-23 19:21 (Reply)

It all boils down to priorities. Instilled in our offsprings early on: 1) you will complete high school; 2) you will go on to complete a certification of some sort; and? 3) you will all pay for at least your tuition and your books: figure out how.

They all did; helped that we are within walking distance (on a non-lazy day) of the local uni, and that fees were reasonable. When one offspring had to leave home because that particular program was not available locally, we did help out; student loans also came into play.

We are fortunate to have several grand-brats (trust me, they've earned that title and are proud of it). But we are also aware of the problems facing basic middle-class Canadians who want more kids. Below a certain income threshold, and you will b rewarded for your fecundity. Above that, and you will - under J Trudeau's rules - really be penalized under just the "middle=income" grouping ($60,000 - $90,000) that our PM professes to cherish.

#2.1.1.2 Frances on 2017-05-23 22:49 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Elizabeth Warren Challenged By Real Indians To Prove She Has Indian Ancestry

It's common for there to be confusion about one's ancestry. Modern DNA testing has shown that people are very often surprised by what is found. In particular, a belief in Indian ancestry is common in Oklahoma, Warren's home state. Warren was simply repeating family lore.

QUOTE:

V.A. Shiva, who is seeking the Republican nomination in 2018 and has claimed he invented email, filmed himself holding a “23andMe” DNA testing kit, which he claims requires only his saliva and a “few short days” to prove if he was a real Indian.

Only a few genetic markers are used for genealogical testing. When those markers are present, they signify a high probability of ancestry, but when they are missing, they may simply have been lost over time. Larger samples will provide greater reliability in the future.

#3 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 09:21 (Reply)

"I'm proud of my Native American heritage," she said Monday in an appearance on CNN. "I'm proud of my family."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/05/is-elizabeth-warren-native-american-or-what/257415/

#3.1 drowningpuppies on 2017-05-23 09:52 (Reply)

drowningpuppies: "I'm proud of my Native American heritage," she said Monday in an appearance on CNN. "I'm proud of my family." ... "The Democratic Senate candidate can't back up family lore that she is part Indian -- but neither is there any evidence that she benefited professionally from these stories."

Sure. And?

#3.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 10:04 (Reply)

Haha.

I am ashamed of my native American ancestry. Stone-age barbarians!

#3.1.1.1 Bird Dog on 2017-05-23 10:08 (Reply)

American Indian Science and Engineering Society

#3.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 11:02 (Reply)

I am of the Binnéessiippeele, also called River Crow.

Although we agree that Warren is a liar, take care in who you call barbarian, wasichu.

#3.1.1.1.2 Fetterman on 2017-05-23 11:24 (Reply)

Zzzzzz: Sure. And?

Uh, she lied and never disavowed her untrue statement. Also, falsely claimed minority status at Harvard but y'all already knew that.

#3.1.1.2 drowningpuppies on 2017-05-23 15:11 (Reply)

drowningpuppies: Uh, she lied ...

The evidence is that she truthfully related family lore as she knew it, a common enough family legend, especially in Oklahoma.

drowningpuppies: and never disavowed her untrue statement.

She did relate that it was family lore. However, the truth of the claim is still undetermined, even if unlikely.

drowningpuppies: Also, falsely claimed minority status at Harvard but y'all already knew that.

Your own citation noted that there isn't "any evidence that she benefited professionally from these stories."

#3.1.1.2.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:30 (Reply)

It all goes to her whole post-modern worldview and "different ways of knowing". To her and her ilk, lore, tradition, and anecdote are as valid sources of knowledge as inductive and deductive logic. Therefore any evidence that contradicts belief is simply an alternative narrative, not evidence of error.

She has Native American Heritage because she believes she does. While this sort of thing is relatively harmless on its own, when you start to say things like non-polluting alternatives can replace fossil fuels because I believe they can, and then make policy decisions based on that belief, you really start to create real economic damage. And when you send out goons with guns to enforce those beliefs counter to reality, you get the history of every autocratic movement of the 20th century, from Stalin, to Hitler, tp Mao, to Pol Pot, to Hugo Chavez.

#3.2 Another guy named Dan on 2017-05-23 10:27 (Reply)

Another guy named Dan: To her and her ilk, lore, tradition, and anecdote are as valid sources of knowledge as inductive and deductive logic.

Nearly everyone relies on family lore to some degree, and there is ample evidence that people are often genuinely surprised by what genealogical research reveals: two men who find out they have different fathers, white hoity-toity of the Monticello Association refusing to believe they are cousins to the descendants of Jefferson's slave, and for that matter, that humans are related to herons.

#3.2.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 10:47 (Reply)

Warren is a liar and you're another white liberal just fascinated by the very concept of us Native Americans. In fact, we despise condescending pricks like you.

#3.2.1.1 Fetterman on 2017-05-23 11:28 (Reply)

Fetterman: Warren is a liar

There is ample evidence that Warren was relating family lore as she learned it from her family.

#3.2.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-23 11:34 (Reply)

Bullshit. "Family lore" does not make anyone Native American. You can call yourself a trans-whatever in your world, but in mine, a gelded stallion is not a mare.

#3.2.1.1.1.1 Fetterman on 2017-05-23 11:51 (Reply)

Fetterman: "Family lore" does not make anyone Native American.

That is correct. However, it often leads people to believe they are Native American.

#3.2.1.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:32 (Reply)

Or, rather that they have a Native American ancestor.

#3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:33 (Reply)

My point is that when genealogical data does not support your claim, you should stop making it, or at least do not accord it any legal standing. She seems to have exploited it to gain an advantage when seeking a professorship under "diversity" regulations.

Furthermore, when you equate anecdote and empirical evidence, there is no way to convince you that even though policy A results in a good outcome for one person, it may not be best for the country when you extrapolate the costs and benefits past the case in your personal experience.

#3.2.1.2 Another guy named Dan on 2017-05-23 11:45 (Reply)

Another guy named Dan: My point is that when genealogical data does not support your claim, you should stop making it, or at least do not accord it any legal standing.

Well, a lot of people identify their biological parents without having had a DNA test. They rely upon what they've been told by those who raised them. That sort of family history is usually reliable for a couple of generations (not always!), but tends to get murky fairly quickly. Yet people still relate their family lore. Perhaps people shouldn't pass on family lore, but for most people these stories are part of what it means to be a family with roots. Warren is not an outlier in this regard.

Another guy named Dan: She seems to have exploited it to gain an advantage when seeking a professorship under "diversity" regulations.

According to the resource provided by drowningpuppies, there isn't "any evidence that she benefited professionally from these stories."

#3.2.1.2.1 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:40 (Reply)

Ah HA! She's a transnative American!

#3.2.2 Sam L. on 2017-05-23 16:49 (Reply)

One's ancestry is something of personal importance and often something to be proud of but should play no part in being hired/fired or provided with benefits and/or denied the same. This would not only be stupid but illegal. My father in law is American Indian, born and raised on a reservation and he dislikes and does not agree with seeking favor or advantage based on his ethnicity. He Rejects this rent-seeking attitude of ethnic minorities.

#3.3 GoneWithTheWind on 2017-05-24 10:31 (Reply)

re Birth Rates are at Historic Lows and Here's a Major Reason

Those may well be valid reasons, but I think the reason for smaller families is The Pill. Once upon a time babies could happen at any time and parents had to adjust their lives accordingly. Now there is a lot more control over conception.

The Pill has arguably impacted civilization more than any drug ever developed.

#4 feeblemind on 2017-05-23 10:16 (Reply)

And we haven't even really begun to process it culturally. We're barely at grips with easy communication started with the telephone and epitomized in the smartphone, and maybe midway through processing the internal combustion engine's effects on society.

The Pill? It'll take probably another 50-100 years.

That said - the future belongs to those who show up for it.

And judging by the numbers, that might not be the West unless something seriously changes.

#4.1 JLawson on 2017-05-23 12:26 (Reply)

Re birthrates.
A friend of mine and his wife decided to wait until they were financially secure to have children. They had one child when his wife was in her 30s and it required lots of effort to become pregnant. They never had another child. If you look at the statistics, female fertility falls off rapidly with age.

#5 Ray on 2017-05-23 10:59 (Reply)

Vietnam was won in '71. We lacked the will to keep it won. South Vietnam was far better off than Iraq or Afghanistan is today.

But Nixon was anxious to get out and let Kissinger give away too much in Paris. Then we turned our backs on South Vietnam when the inevitable next North Vietnamese offensive started.

#6 NJSoldier on 2017-05-23 14:26 (Reply)

Nixon did have it won but his resignation from office gave the North Vietnamese the confidence to invade with armored forces and overwhelm the South Vietnamese who had little left of their air force due to maintenance issues from lack of funds. Congress had cut off nearly all funds to the south due to antiwar democrats. Gerald Ford did not have the spine to simply send air support to take out the armor. To this day it is the reason I will not support democrats or rinos like Ford and his Michigan brother George Romney. The NVA feared Nixon and with good cause.

#6.1 indyjonesouthere on 2017-05-23 20:39 (Reply)

Highly recommend reading Unheralded Victory if you haven't.

#6.2 Ray (Link) on 2017-05-24 08:59 (Reply)

NJSoldier: Vietnam was won in '71. We lacked the will to keep it won.

The Nixon tapes make clear that Nixon and Kissinger were well aware that the war didn’t have a military solution.

QUOTE:

Nixon: because I look at the tide of history out there, South Vietnam probably can never even survive anyway…

Nixon: It’s terribly important this year, but can we have a viable foreign policy if a year from now or two years from now, North Vietnam gobbles up South Vietnam? That’s the real question.

Kissinger: If a year or two years from now North Vietnam gobbles up South Vietnam, we can have a viable foreign policy if it looks as if it’s the result of South Vietnamese incompetence. If we now sell out in such a way that, say, within a three- to four-month period, we have pushed {unclear} Thieu over the brink– we ourselves– I think, there is going to be– even the Chinese won’t like that. I mean, they’ll pay verbal– verbally, they’ll like it–

Nixon: But it’ll worry them.

Kissinger: But it will worry everybody. And domestically in the long run it won’t help us all that much because our opponents will say we should’ve done it three years ago.

Nixon: I know.

#6.3 Zachriel on 2017-05-24 10:56 (Reply)

QUOTE:

A low-pressure demography means that a society avoids the situation where extra resources are automatically absorbed by population expansion. As Malthus argued, the only force strong enough to stand against the biological desire to mate and have children, was the even stronger social desire to live comfortably and avoid poverty. This is exactly what seems to have happened in England from at least the late medieval period.

...

People had to be able to ‘afford’ to marry and have children. When economic conditions changed dramatically and called for a huge burst of extra labour, in other words with the early labour-intensive phase of the industrial revolution, then the age at marriage dropped and a larger proportion of the population married. Population grew rapidly as jobs became available.

Demography is a sensitive index to the presence of modernity. Where, as in most civilizations, the family is the basic unit of the economic, social, political and religious world, to expand the family is the ultimate goal – people want as many children as possible. But where a modern division between the spheres of economy, society, polity and religion has taken place, so that it is the individual alone who links the separated spheres, the individual’s interest are not served by large families.

The extraordinary spread of the ‘modern’ demographic regime throughout Europe and then to many parts of the world in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries has puzzled specialists. For it does not fit with any usual indicators such as education, literacy or wealth. I suspect that if one plotted these falls against the change from an ancien regime integrated, family-based, world to the growth of individualistic, modern, separated, capitalist relations, one would find a fit. So demography is both an effect of modernity, but also a potent reinforcer, by leading to the positive feedback loops of putting extra comfort for the individual before extra hands and mouths for the family.

#7 JK Brown on 2017-05-23 15:26 (Reply)

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Tuesday, May 23. 2017

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