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Friday, March 18. 2016
I think Trump could conceivably win a general election, although current polls indicate a bloodbath. It's been an interesting 6 months, and the next 6 could be equally interesting. I doubt that he would have done so well with a more compact set of primary candidates, though.
I do not think the Trump phenomenon is about anger, ignorance, or toothless white men. Exit polls I saw indicated that he drew votes from all social classes, ethnicities, and from women. They are not Know-Nothings; they are reluctantly-politicized people. So what is it about? I feel it's a spirit of rebellion and defiance. That is quite American. I think many feel that Washington with its condescending, bien pensant elites and vast, intrusive bureaucracies are diminishing life in America. (But they want their benefits too.) I can relate.
No, nor do they realize how bubble-wrapped their lives are. David Brooks beclowned himself again this week on the topic: Gee, I Guess Me and My Fellow Well-Heeled Establisment Swells Kind of Didn't Listen to the Voters for Years, Huh?
Well, it's not that simple but I think many enjoy his anti-effete spirit and his plain talk. He is right about some things, wrong about other things. So is everybody.
On a personal level, I think Trump is a jerk and Hillary! is a revolting human. Given the choice, I'd hire Trump to work for me.
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"I do not think the Trump phenomenon is about anger, ignorance, or toothless white men...."
In reverse order:
The toothless white men are voting for Bernie.
Ask (the majority) of Trump supporters about the effect of tariffs on the price they will pay for foreign goods and then we'll discuss ignorance.
As for anger,
"I feel it's a spirit of rebellion and defiance..."
I'ld call that anger.
"...many feel that Washington with its condescending, bien pensant elites and vast, intrusive bureaucracies are diminishing life in America. (But they want their benefits too.)"
I agree and I don't think they "want their benefits too" because of team spirit, but rather due to their own self interest (not that there's anything wrong with that as Adam Smith pointed out). Nor do I think it's wrong for them to be angry.
The upper middle class has worked hard, has paid the majority of taxes, and has been left out of the government gravy train. In other words, they have watched for decades as the people elected to represent their (the voters) interests in Washington have instead protected their (the politicians) own political careers instead by taking the hard earned fruits of the labor of the upper middle and given it (largely) to those who have CHOSEN not to contribute (Romney's 47%).
Sure, there are many folks in the bottom half who have legitimate excuses for their low productivity, but the data shows that many, if not most, people are not permanently stuck their and do advance as their productivity increases. Those aren't the people who really need or deserve government handouts. Most of us have gone thru that stage - as teen workers, etc. - and not expected or demanded a handout.
What the upper middle is angry at is the lazy mass of moochers who choose to remain unproductive (either because of inability or unwillingness to work or improve) and collect govt benefits (at the expense of the upper middles) because the govt has destroyed their incentive to work and instead rewards their sloth.
The upper middles are fed up BUT they also recognize that they have paid heavily into the entitlement programs over many decades and feel that it is unfair that the government would deny them the benefits that they have paid for and which the moochers have been collecting.
They resent the govt saying, "OK, you've paid into the system for decades, but now we admit that the entitlements are unsustainable and we're going to have to place limits on who can get them - but we're only going to place those limits on the people who actually paid into the system. SUCKERS!!!!!"
I, too, feel that the polls are dramatically underestimating the level of support for Trump. And certainly those who represent the GOPe are doing so. Angry, yes, but anger based on betrayal by a GOP that has ignored them for many years. And I really do believe many Dems will vote for Trump. Hillary is not well-loved and young people, disillusioned by Sanders being ignored, may not even vote at all. I won't bet much but I will bet that Trump can win the general.
I have seen polls showing HRC struggling against all the GOP contenders, so what changed?
Polls aside, I am reading Trump:
1) Draws 10s of thousands to events. HRC brings in dozens.
2) Trump projects strength and vigor on the stump. HRC projects . . . ?
3) I am reading the coveted independents are flocking to Trump. Am also reading he may make pick up to 15-20% of the black vote.
4) Enthusiasm gap. GOP getting record turnout in primaries. Dem turnout is way down.
5) HRC has to contend with the steady drip, drip, drip of damaging email info leaking out for the duration of the campaign, constantly reminding voters of her dishonesty.
Given all that, How does HRC win the election in a landslide? All she has is her hardcore supporters and disgruntled republicans. Is that enough for her to win?
I guess its all to complex for my feeble mind to comprehend.
Perhaps its just a chance to either
"throw the bums out", or
"throw the lying crooks out"
not that they are mutually exclusive.
""throw the bums out", AND "throw the lying crooks out""
Fixed that for you; it isn't an "or" matter.
It's not good for the nation when the 5 highest-earning ZIP codes are within or touching the DC Beltway. Too much resemblance to "Capital City" and "Hunger Games". The denizens of DC - and to a lesser extent, New York City - have NO CLUE how the rest of the nation lives, and the Trumpists seem intent in rectifying that lapse in their educations. The Tea Party tried to do it the "easy way" in 2010, 2012 and 2014, and Mitch McConnell was more actively hostile toward Tea Party candidates than he was toward actual Democrats. That's 3 strikes, and now the game changes. It's no longer enough to beat the Dems; we have to beat the RINOs as well. So if Priebus and McConnell and Boehner try to deny the nomination to either Cruz or Trump, I think there WILL be riots - and the Republican Party will cease to exist, just like the Whigs did.
Ken, have you no heart? What would the current congressmen/women and lobbyists do, if they had to find real jobs? All they know is lying, and taking money from companies and tax-free, ungovernable Foundations, in exchange for special laws, favors, and grants that deprive and steal from honest people.
With no other skills, they couldn’t compete with H1-B and illegal immigrants, so would go on the welfare rolls.
One humane solution would be to prosecute and incarcerate them for bribery and corruption, so that they at least have food and a place to live for the next 10 or 20 years.
None whatsoever. Offer them 40 acres of farmland and a mule.
They sell their influence, so it would be more than fair to send them to 40 acres in places where they have had great influence - Syria, Libya or Mexico.
While I don't know Trump would be an effective president, I love watching all my Liberal pals go nuts. He's the crass, boorish, loud American that they all desperately want to eliminate. He's everything they are afraid of being seen as--not sophisticated, demands ice in his drinks, wears loud ties, has too much money, and so on.
And he's an outer-boroughs guy who didn't go to an Ivy and his wife doesn't do something noble and underpaid.
The left wing bomb throwers are apoplectic. The community organizers and other communist left wing groups are beginning their election rioting season. The left is having to make up new dirty names to call him and make up things to blame on him. This would not be happening if Trump was not a serious threat to the Democrats. Is Trump a 'jerk'? I dunno, not so much, he is more like a typical New Yorker to me. We laugh about it on TV shows and movies but he sounds exactly like all the rest of the people we identify as New Yorkers. All the Hispanic and black activists keep calling him a racist when he is clearly not a racist. This bomb throwing works against the weak and scared but I don't think Trump is either.
Trump is a rino. He is no defender of the Constitution. He never has been and he has not "evolved" one bit. He is just another insider fatcat who plays the corrupt system, donating money to help elect the corrupt cronies he kicks it with. Nancy Pelosi, Herry Reid, Chuck Schumer and the DNC. And you fools buy into this "he is an outsider" garbage?
Back in his rifle ban days, Donald Trump was touting the base principle of government owning the power of permission over enumerated rights (the permission allowed being bolt action rifles but not evil black rifles). Today, he brags about his own carry permission slip, gained in a place where next to nobody can possibly get one of their own. About this, Trump says ZERO. He does not deride the permission slip process that affords him that Title of Nobility but disallows everyone else. Instead, he champions that permission power.
Trumps Policy position paper actually goes so far as to champion an idea that Bab Boxer floated a couple year ago. Trump compares your RIGHT to carry to a driver license. Trump is absolutely at odds with Justice Clarence Thomas regarding the historically accurate explanation of the 14th Amendment, especially WHY it was crafted the way it was!
If you vote for Trump, you are admitting that to you personally, rights are just permissions for government to allow or deny, because that is exactly what Trump believed during the Clinton era of bans and it is exactly what he believes now.
Folks on the fence tryin to decide......you had better think it through carefully. Consider this Trumpism - on Cavutos show trump said plainly that he "wants to RULE through the Constitution. Now think about that please. RULE.
The founders did not even WANT a Presidency out of fear the office would someday be viewed EXACTLY the way Trump views it - a position from which to RULE!.
I understand being pissed at the RINO culture, the "guy who can win" culture and the desire to burn it to the ground. I would not piss on the progressive democrats controlling either party but I warn you flatly, it is one thing to burn down that house, it is another to burn down that house and become so enthralled with watching the train wreck that you crash your own car too.
You have exposed the GOPe and Fixed News for what it is - there is no reason to nuke the planet by electing Trump. Make no mistake, the democrats you are voting with to elevate Trump in the primary will turn on you in a heartbeat and go vote for Hillary.
SO if you REALLY want to stick it in their eye - then drop the Chump named Trump now, vote Cruz and put the fear of God in the Democrats who control both parties. A Hillary Presidency is not worth it. Bill Clinton back in the white house is not worth it.
You better understand, just as many of us understand what the NRA is and have abandoned it, so too is this true about Trump. We know what he REALLY is and we will not hold our noses to vote for him. Like McCain, we will withhold our consent and YOU FOOLS will be the ones LOSING to Hillary. SO keep your projection trying to blame us - we WARN YOU without ambiguity - we will NOT vote for Trump because we do not vote for progressive liberal democrats, period.
Mr. O'gordon, what if Trump promised to make Cruz his VP to be in line for the next election, or the Attorney General to prosecute the various government crooks and evildoers and bribers (eg, Clinton Foundation), and/or the Supreme Court when open?
And Bernie Sanders ambassador to the useless UN?
Why would anyone believe a Trump promise? I'll just stand by Cruz for president, not wait for Trump to appoint him to something or other.
Tex, why would any decent person believe any politician? Yes, Cruz ia a politician, too....how can any honest politician support TPA/TPP which primarily keeps drug prices outrageously high?
How can you tell if politicians are lying? In addition to whether their lips are moving, by the change in net worth while in office. By the size of "donations" to their their campaigns and Foundations by companies and foreign governments who then get special favors.
"Read my lips, no new taxes". "Hope and Change; My phony SS# and birth certificate, which look photoshopped, are actually real". "Elect us, and we will defund obamacare, and stop illegal immigration, and defund big-government".
Voters should demand a written, somehow enforceable agreement to resign if phony promises turn out to be lies just made up to get elected. Who would the agreement be with, how would it be enforced? Any ideas?
Consider me WARNED. Don't vote for him and let Hillary win. You will suffer just as much as any of us.
Trump is what happens when you have a confluence of his money, his skill at manipulating the media, and a major ready made constituency of blue collar Dems, Middle Class minorities, Indies, small business owners, and tradesmen looking for a Representative, any Representative. This constituency was there for the taking, incidentally. They sure don’t owe anything to either political party, from whom they mostly get the brush off, if not outright disdain. It really is just that simple. Sure, there may be more ideal candidates, but they just didn’t materialize on the national stage, with the necessary funding, did they?
Not a Trump supporter by any means (other than anyone but Hillary means).
However, I think Peggy Noonan nailed it when she wrote a column about the "protected class."
That is why Trump is so popular - the protected class are only interested in themselves; and now along comes Trump talking about the things that those who are not a part of the protected class care about (illegal immigration being one).
To further support this idea of the protected class is the fact that even Romney, who I voted for and think would have been a fine president, came out against Trump before he come out supporting anyone else. Romney is a part of that protected class and even he, despite seeming like a nice guy, had to "hate" on Trump because Trump isn't part of "the support the protected class first" group. Sorry, Mitt, but it is the norm in politics that you show support FOR someone before you trash someone else. So, in my opinion, Romney, being a part of the protected class, is afraid of something then, no?
The Democrats are afraid of Trump because they could lose to him; the Republicans (along with the Democrats) are afraid of him because they will also lose - their protected class status that is.
The Tea party tried to change things; but, the MSM and the Democrats hated on them. Even, the Republicans turned their backs on the Tea Party. So, now along comes Trump, who is very much a part of the protected class, but, clearly, has tapped into the anger and frustration that the unprotected classes feel.
I do consider Trump a big buffoon, and I really don't want another few a years of a narcissist in chief. (Obama was enough for me). However, both parties don't seem to realize that the more they try to discredit Trump they more "small people" will support him.
Maybe "us small people" didn't go to Harvard or Yale; but, we aren't stupid. Every time they hate Trump we look closer and see that they are just afraid. Good, it is time for them to be afraid for a change!
" The Democrats are afraid of Trump because they could lose to him; the Republicans (along with the Democrats) are afraid of him because they will also lose - their protected class status that is."
I don't know about this, however, I am at a loss to explain WAPO's demand that the RNC stop Trump. Why aren't they gleeful and cheerleading the implosion of the Republican party? I think, that he is damaging to the entire political donor class and their servants in government, in think tanks, in PACs, and in the media. I don't buy that he will necessarily defeat HRC, but rather that he will turn her into a laughing stock and damage her so much that her presidency would be undermined. He does seem to have a well honed ability to expose his rival's weak spots. He sure blew up " the money buys election" cliché on its head. PACs should be concerned about that, but I don't expect them to be smarter; I expect them to double down.
I think, that he is damaging to the entire political donor class and their SERVANTs in government, in think tanks, in PACs, and in the media.
I would add to this the political consultancy class and downstream from there, the printers that supply mailers, the makers and and purveyors of smarmy ads ....... How much of the GDP is spent on electioneering anyway?
These 2 articles explain Trump
Get some facts regarding Trump then decide.
As a working class white Republican who is repulsed by and finds no good argument for supporting Trump, when the discourse is to blame the establishment, I think I must be the establishment. If I understand correctly I must be careful not to upset Trump supporters, because I am either wrong or evil, even though I belong to the group that is supposed to be his ideal supporter. I see Trump as a continuation of the trend of Obama, a populist that uses divisive rhetoric that strikes a chord with those seeking easy answers to complex problems.
Trump is also appealing because 1) he loves America, 2) he loves its people, 3) he believes in American exceptionalism, 4) he's optimistic about the future, 5) he's an anti-globalist, 6) he has the courage to lead the charge, 7) he doesn't hold grudges, 8) he has a good sense of humor about himself, 9) he can really take a punch, 10) he's the embodiment of America--an average guy who made it bit through hard work, 11) he's tireless, 12) he's smart, 13) he has imagination, 14) he's a big-picture thinker, 15) he's an extrovert, 16) he enjoys communicating with others, 17) he likes working with teams, 18) he's running in the face of great danger, 19) he wants to stick up for me---I could go on.
Maybe he beats his grandmother for beer money on occasion, but I don't care. His sins are minor compared to the horror I feel at at the loss of my freedoms and the sense of impending doom that hangs over me.
Someone tell that to Bush and McConnell and Romney and all the other brain-dead functionaries in the GOP.
People change over time, and Trump is clearly not the person he once was---he has come into his prime.
Churchill considered himself to be a failure in his professional life until he was well into in his 60s, where he discovered his true mission in life. Everything until then had been prelude. Disliked as he was by his political opponents, he was the only man capable of leading England to victory against the Nazis. His was a rarefied and seldom-needed skill set, but his country recognized its unique value when the time came. Trump's situation seems similar to me.
Simplistic comments about Churchill. He thought of his political success as anyone would during his ups, and downs. But he never lost faith in himself or considered himself a failure except for short periods. A Churchill said, "We are all worms, but I do believe that I am a glow-worm." He knew what his mission in life was from a very early age -to be the Leader of Britain.
Yes, he was depressed on occasion, he called it the "Black Dog". He may have had OCD but that gets into the realm of psychobabble.
"Churchill considered himself to be a failure in his professional life until he was well into in his 60s, where he discovered his true mission in life. Everything until then had been prelude. "
Interesting point. I don't know if it applies to Trump, but there are historical figures whose lives do seem to have been a preparation for being the right person at the right time. I am thinking of William T Sherman who actually failed more than he succeeded.
@ahem - I would contest most of your points about Trump. He says he loves America, exceptionalism, etc, but he mostly loves Trump. You may choose to take him at his word that what he says is what he really, truly believes, but there isn't a lot of hard evidence for those propositions. I choose to find them pandering.
I think I get it that people are glad for permission to loudly and publicly say they love America and not apologise for that. It's gratifying. Trump has done well creating that space. But that has nothing to do with being president.
Trump an alpha male? Please. How ridiculous. I live in a state full of them and almost 67% of caucus votes went to Ted Cruz. Trump took Teton County--home of Jackson Hole and every fake cowboy who ever lived.
Yeah, Wyoming, a true microcosm of the nation, it is! Those cowboys know everything!
Vote reflexively "NO" on anyone from New Yahk, reflexively "YES" on anything from Tejas. no thinking needed.
The caucus is a badly flawed system controlled and owned by the party elite. If it points to anything it points to who the current elite power base wants to push at that moment in time. It is NOT a representation of the voters and that is a sad statement for the party that created caucuses as a tool of selecting a candidate. The caucuses should be eliminated and replaced with a statewide primary election.
I don’t think it is as much about Trump, or his substance, as it is about attitude. A sizeable subset of voters love his attitude and his exposure of the political class for what it is. The Democrats, the #nevertrump cult, the rightwing purists, the pundits, the intellectuals, the academics, the political consultants – have missed this, just as they have overlooked his constituency for decades.
With rare exception, I am not a fan of the wonk who can read and regurgitate white papers, if they can’t get anything practical done. They can blather on about policy, purity and arcane issues all they want – but this is an up down class fight, not a right left battle.
Proggy-Zach, the collective you wouldn't know "truthiness" if it came up and took a serious chunk of flesh out of your collective arses.
You all still believe in Leftist/Proggy fairy tales!
"I refute it thus."
Trump is what is known as a brute fact. The political right has garnered short-term benefits from truthiness over the last generation, but the result is Trumpism.
Think Again Hillary Democrats: 10 Reasons Why She Could Lose this Fall
The only people really concerned about a Trump win are establishment politicians (both Rs and Ds) and the moochers. I don't see what's not to like about that. Besides, it is a moral imperative to vote against Hillary Clinton - a felon and traitor.
Disclaimer - Cruz supporter.