Friday morning links

Unaccustomed to public speaking as I am, I offer this:

"I doubt the efficacy of teaching, though it's noble indeed to attempt it. Witness the enormous learning, wit, and insight of so many wonderful bloggers whose voices can now be heard. Still, as entertaining as their efforts are, it seems to me that the effect of their work in defeating the liberal, grifter enemy is marginal." Col. Bunny: http://igst.blogspot.com/
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#1 chasmatic (Link) on 2015-12-18 09:11 (Reply)

Sad but true.

#1.1 Bird Dog on 2015-12-18 11:28 (Reply)

"Freak' ocean waves hit without warning, new research shows"

Really, research shows that?

'(a rare and unpredictable event)' ocean waves hit with out warning?

Who'da thunk it?

#2 JK Brown on 2015-12-18 10:22 (Reply)

The story is news because of the science.

Sailors have always told tales of monster waves that came out of nowhere to bury their ships. Modern scientists dismissed these stories because the mathematical models of wave formation didn't support the existence of massively-outsized waves; waves formed in sets based on the conditions at hand (wind, current, temperature, etc.). The size of individual waves within a set might vary within a given range, but as a whole they were fairly uniform because they were all the result of the same causal factors.

Since "anecdotes are not data," scientists dismissed the stories as being psychologically-driven. (The wave may have seemed extra large, old chap, but we know that that sort of thing is physically impossible.)

Then (as the good General notes in his comment down below), with the ever-increasing prevalence of satellite and other remote monitoring tech, scientists began to see data that showed super-large rogue waves were actually occurring. [To their everlasting credit, they resisted the temptation to massage the data set until the pesky things went away.]

They began to posit that this must happen in rare instances when currents and winds happened to align so as to compound their effects. The forces would gradually build up to create the rogue wave, which would be a statistical outlier -- in terms of height -- but would not otherwise be out of keeping with the norm for that particular set. (Good news, lads, we've discovered that rogue waves really exist! Only, as it turns out, they're still not as big as you say they are. Also, they don't really come out of nowhere, either. You've been getting the height right, but the rest of it is still the product of a overwrought imagination.)

What I imagine happened next is that the eggheads at Oxford, now that they had a new theory to explain the measurements that didn't fit (ahem, disproved) the old model, set about to build a new, better, model. Once they had done that, they discovered that their model was now telling them that the theory wasn't quite right. The waves were bigger than they expected. What's more, the buggers were showing up unexpectedly. (Such cheek!)

Ordinarily, this is no matter, it's possible to adjust the model so that the data fits the theory after all. Only this time, the model was describing wave behavior that is suspiciously like what sailors have been saying all along. (Well now, gentlemen, we can't exactly explain why it would be this way, but the maths all seem to be saying that you may have been right about those waves after all. Carry on, then.)

#2.1 Thos. on 2015-12-18 20:47 (Reply)

Will someone with at least a high-school grasp of physics and geometry please take a swipe at computing sealevel change that would result from a total melt of the Greenland ice sheet?

I have done so and get about 20 cm. The "scientists" get 24 feet or more. What's up?

#3 claritas on 2015-12-18 10:54 (Reply)

Did you remember to account for the fact that melted ice will have a smaller volume than the ice?

#3.1 mudbug on 2015-12-18 11:17 (Reply)

Very roughly: The area of the Greenland ice sheet is 1.7 million km^2. The area of the oceans is about 360 million km^2, or about 200 times the area. The ice sheet is about 2 km thick. Taking the volume of the Greenland ice sheet and spreading it out over 200 times the area, we have 2 km / 200 = 10 meters.

#3.2 Zachriel on 2015-12-18 16:25 (Reply)

The area of the current ocean, not the considerably larger area of the new ocean?

#3.2.1 Texan99 on 2015-12-18 19:25 (Reply)

As noted, "very roughly". You have to account for the difference in density of water compared to ice under various conditions.

Also, if the Greenland icecap melted, then it would only increase the area of the ocean less than 1%. Unfortunately, coastal plains happen to include some of the most populated and productive areas of the globe. The good news is that it will likely take centuries for the Greenland icecap to melt.

#3.2.1.1 Zachriel on 2015-12-18 23:16 (Reply)

I'm with Zachriel. Thanks, Z-man. I musta slipped a decimal or two. And second-order effects are the grist for grant mills.

#3.2.1.1.1 claritas on 2015-12-19 14:00 (Reply)

I read somewhere that melting all the ice will bring sea level up 216 feet, which would flood up the Columbia River to right about I-97.

#3.3 Sam L. on 2015-12-18 18:26 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Chart via Climate Panic: Where Do Humans Live?

We observe that it was in the upper 20s last night and now it's in the mid-40s. There, Deniers, is your climate change. Only in right wing echo chambers is this Settled Science brutally ignored.

#4 Mr Liberal on 2015-12-18 11:19 (Reply)

"Foreign worker increase needed because of labor shortage"

Foreign labor is more malleable than American workers are. Many H1B workers are encouraged/forced to work long hours as salaried employees at lower pay scales than an American worker would submit to. Illegal aliens will eagerly work tedious and physical jobs at minimum wage. This is and always has been about money/profit. What is worse is that it costs taxpayers billions to pay the external costs that the employer and foreign workers generate but avoid. I would suggest two simple laws to protect American workers and taxpayers:
1. Employers hiring foreigners would pay a tax to offset those external costs. that fee would be about $50,000 a year.
2. All non-citizens would be allowed to stay in the U.S. for no more than 180 consecutive days in any 365 day period. In addition a system would be created that would track visitors to this country so that we would actually know when they came in and when they left.

Two common sense laws that most countries in the world already use to protect their citizens.

#5 GoneWithTheWInd on 2015-12-18 11:29 (Reply)

A few years back, I read another scientific study of freak waves. This study was based on actual measurements from buoys all over the world. Giant waves were found to be much more common than thought, frequently over 100 feet. The instant study appears to be based on "mathematical modeling." This gives it a global warming modeling stench. Why not use the actual measurements of actual events?

#6 General Bolsheyeet on 2015-12-18 13:00 (Reply)

Ummmmm, because they can't be predicted and nobody's set up to measure/photgraph/estimate them should they get "lucky" enough to be hit by one.

Mr. Lib, you better watch out! You keep that up, Zachriel's gonna slap you with a suit for invasion of property.

#6.1 Sam L. on 2015-12-18 18:32 (Reply)

Mr. Liberal:

My uncle Louie "Letsgo" Lozko is a premier bantam chicken rancher, many awards to his credit.

He made an intensive study of weather and environment and came up with the following conclusions. I might add he has been considered for a Nobel Prize.

Some of his findings:

when the sun goes down it gets dark out, sun comes up and we got light again;

when the temperature goes down it gets colder, temp goes up and it gets warmer.

His work with precipitation is in volume two of his research.

#7 chasmatic (Link) on 2015-12-18 13:39 (Reply)

Mr. Matic, we thank you for leaving the ranks of the Deniers.

#7.1 Mr Liberal on 2015-12-18 16:08 (Reply)

The results are in — iron-clad, immutable, swear to on a stack of bibles, solid gold, more pure than Ivory soap, stand the test of time findings:

It always rains after a dry spell.

My uncle Letsgo and his stalwart flock of champions said so,

I believe it,

that settles it.
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#7.1.1 chasmatic (Link) on 2015-12-19 00:55 (Reply)

So thermometers control the climate? Now I get it.

#7.2 Bird Dog on 2015-12-18 16:20 (Reply)

Listening to the news yesterday on transports, I heard that truckers salaries are too high. Now we know that the increase in H-2B visas is not going to be hotel/resort maids or agricultural workers, its going to be truck drivers until those impudent Americans who thought they should be pulling a decent wage get their comeuppance. Did you not wonder why the AFL-CIO was being ignored by the D's? Just the price they had to pay to get R's to self identify as members of the uni-party/

#8 fiona on 2015-12-19 10:16 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Climate Panic: Where Do Humans Live? ... More disruptive than the black plague of the 14th century (one-third of Europe killed)?

Heh. Climate change isn't as bad as the Black Plague. Humans survived that, so there's nothing to worry about.

#9 Zachriel on 2015-12-19 10:43 (Reply)

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Friday, December 18. 2015

Friday morning links