Maggie's Farm

I have no heartburn with Mr. Dalio and my comment is intended more generally. Years ago there was, as the story goes, a less than honorable investment advisor targeted a number of rich investors to cquire their investment business. He would tell them he could prove that he could make them millions and his proof was that he would pick a stock and advise them to go long or short and they could see for themselves how prescient he was. What he did in fact was advise half of them to buy and the other half to sell. Then when the stock either went up or down he would write of those investors that he had given the wrong advice to and target the others. If they still wanted more proof he would pull the same trick until he had a handful of rich investors who by then had faith in his abilities.
I don't know if it is true or not. But in my humble opinion most successful stock investors because of skill, luck or simply a good economy have simply not yet "stumbled" but they will someday. No one can be right all the time. They can choose to be very conservative and minimize their losses when they are wrong but they will also minimize their gains when they are right. So while I do like the idea of going with the guy that has a great track record I am not convinced he is infallible. Ray Dalio, Warren Buffet and other successful Wall street investors may continue their lucky/skill streak; they may not. I don't know if or when they will stumble but neither do they.