On snowbound days, one pays attention to money. Unless one is a successful professional trader, we tend towards the Random Walk approach for savings. For value equity-picking, if you can beat Buffet and Munger over the long haul, good for you. However, 99% of professional equity investors cannot beat the S&P 500 over time - especially including fees. Not to mention bonds, real estate, precious metals, etc.
That's why we use only Vanguard Funds and ETFs, just as Buffet does with his funds for his family (he gives away most of his wealth to charity and is extremely stingy with his kids). Very cheap funds and ETFs. Only rarely do we purchase individual equities or bonds, and we do not have the wealth for venture funds or hedge funds.
Vanguard can help you with rational planning. They are not trying to get rich from you, and I almost consider them to be a public service.