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Wednesday, April 4. 2012"Anti-science," or skeptical about scientists?Glenn Reynolds, with his finger on the pulse of the zeitgeist, captured something yesterday that I had been collecting a few links about, in Faith in science? Why skepticism is rising. A quote:
There are a number of reasons it makes good sense to be always skeptical of scientific claims (as scientists are trained to be). Here are a few: 1. Careerism and greed - there is big money to be made in science these days, especially if you come up with the "right" results There are others. Those are just for starters. Without getting into the huge global climate boondoggle, here are just a few examples from my medical profession: In cancer science, many 'discoveries' don't hold up. One quote:
44% is not very good. More on that story: Can Most Cancer Research Be Trusted? - Addressing the problem of "academic risk" in biomedical research Red wine researcher Dr. Dipak K. Das published fake data: UConn 1 Boring Old Man has been doing yeoman's service in keeping track of the Big Pharma-Big Psychiatry cabal. Here he discusses how psychiatric diagnosis is pharma-driven.
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Reynolds' editorial is spot on. Great piece! And, my company recently bought me a white lab coat.
I always tell my AGW friends there is no proof of a link between men and rising temperature, only a hypothesis that is, as yet, unproven.
More importantly I remind them that Galileo, in today's environment, would be outcast and treated as poorly as he was during his own era for a simple reason - he was a skeptic and promoting ideas which overturned the consensus of the day. Therefore, consensus is not science. Finally, I love this website: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/number%20watch.htm this fellow is terrific at crushing the general consensus and he has something he calls "MMC" - May, Might Could - which journalists use like a sledgehammer. Broccoli MIGHT 'cure' cancer. Chlorine MAY 'cause' asthma in children (so keep them out of the pool). Vitamin C COULD 'cure' the common cold. In each case, there is limited evidence that anything of value is taking place, but there is enough to write an article and convince a large portion of the population that something is true....sometimes on items with less than 10% probability of actual truth!! I use data mining in my business. There is no truth in data mining, just a statistical representation of an idea which has a high degree of probability to hit the targets I want. I still miss a large number, but it's better than targeting randomly. It's not scientific, it's just better than a guess. Numbers are my thing - I love math, in particular higher order math. So much so that I finished vector calculus while still a junior in high school - I could have done it as a sophomore but varsity baseball interfered. And I have the academic credentials to lay claim to being a numbers "scientist".
Which leads me to the old bromide - numbers never lie, people do. A perfect example is Michael Mann. The numbers showed the famous temperature hockey stick. The numbers were right. It was how the numbers were developed, cherry picked, massaged and manipulated to show a certain result that was the problem That requires a human being to do. My personal opinion is that folks are suspicious because there is so much contradictory information available to them, they can't process it all so they become cynical and skeptical. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :>) I'm definitely a numbers person and I have friends who can't do simple math. As a result, they regularly say "you can make numbers say whatever you want". I reply, "no, you can't. You can manipulate them in such a manner that they appear to support a particular case, but further digging will always reveal a truth. It takes a conscious decision to mislead people using numbers, it's not numbers creating misleading results."
Of course, there's also the problem of "too many inputs" which is what makes something like climate change fail at so many levels. Or Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions, which can also throw a monkey wrench into things. Still, these never result in numbers saying whatever you want, those are examples of not fully understanding the sensitivity of the system, assuming you do, and making firm predictions when none can be made. You'd probably love the site I linked to. The author was an engineer for some time, and has a very unique way of looking at things. Heidi Cullen, the climatologist, reacted poorly when I sent her a link to the site during my time at The Weather Channel. That was right about the point I realized she was quite useless. She may be among the people who felt Bush lacked an inquisitive mind - but she lacked one, too. She wasn't interested in people who differed with her view of the world, and simply belittled them. I'm interested in the opposing viewpoint for one reason. I've always felt the best way to beat your opponent is to understand them well. Once you know their arguments, you know how to beat those arguments effectively. It's good to be a skeptic. Without skepticism, we'd think magicians were really magical. Heidi "Weather is not climate" Cullen, Ph.D. - ugh what a waste of free air - the Paris Hilton of the weather world. Hard to understand how a light weight like her got as far as she did. Didn't The Weather Channel fire her?
Didn't know you were at the Weather Channel - cool beans. I was involved with the Weather Underground (University of Michigan's WU) since the time it was a Telenet system. My weather station in Woodstock was a contributor to the early system starting in 1990 and stayed a contributor up until last year when we moved. Never met Jeff Masters, but I've exchanged emails with him several times. Nice guy. You're right of course - you really need to understand the opposing viewpoint because you can't construct a cogent argument without that understanding. Yeah, wound up there as a contractor, then went full time after 3 months. I had been laid off by AOL as it was collapsing in the early 2000's and was lucky enough to receive a call from a friend who joined them, at just the right moment (for both of us, as it turned out).
Had a good run there, too. It was a very well run company, for the most part. The usual cast of political BS players, but overall a great company. I don't know if they fired Heidi. I remember that silly movie she consulted on came out while I was there and we all went to see it. The funniest part was during her Q&A, someone asked "Could this really happen?" I can't remember her exact words, but it was something to the effect of "we have no idea how it will all turn out, but this is a scenario". Which, of course, means it's all BS. I traded a few emails with her because I was researching alternative energy resources for my home (something I do from time to time to determine if they are economically viable yet). She liked my enthusiasm, until she found out I wasn't researching it for HER reasons. Then I noticed her responses became terse. By the way, they're still not economically viable (did more research last year when my oil bill skyrocketed). The trade off for upfront capital and long term maintenance has a 12-20 year payoff for almost every kind of alternative, except geothermal, but to retrofit my home's heating system for geothermal is ridiculously expensive. (I have steam heat) Ya know, I noticed a fella on here who doesn't think it's useful to understand the opposition's POV.
#2.1.1.1.1
Bulldog
on
2012-04-04 21:04
(Reply)
And you have to have the right sub-surface structure to make geothermal work from what I understand. We sold one of our apartment buildings to a guy who converted to geothermal - I was impressed with the system, but as you said, even with the State rebates and energy credits it was hideously expensive.
The simple truth is that the current technology just isn't up to the challenge as of yet. Doesn't mean it won't be at some point, but we're just not there now.
#2.1.1.1.1.1
Tom Francis
on
2012-04-05 06:28
(Reply)
Bulldog: I always tell my AGW friends there is no proof of a link between men and rising temperature, only a hypothesis that is, as yet, unproven.
Scientific hypotheses aren't proven, but supported. Bulldog: More importantly I remind them that Galileo, in today's environment, would be outcast ....] They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown. — Carl Sagan Bulldog: [i]and treated as poorly as he was during his own era for a simple reason - he was a skeptic and promoting ideas which overturned the consensus of the day. No one ever expects the Roman Inquisition. Bulldog: I use data mining in my business. There is no truth in data mining, just a statistical representation of an idea which has a high degree of probability to hit the targets I want. That's called data dredging. Bulldog: It's not scientific, it's just better than a guess. What makes it scientific is when it leads to new and testable hypotheses. I have a new theory on how to deal with you. Ignore the troll.
It's testable, so it's science. See ya, troll. Bulldog: Ignore the troll.
One should ignore trolls, and you can ignore anyone you choose for whatever reason; however, we made legitimate points. We'll rephrase it more explicitly (though the meaning should have been easily discernible before). Bulldog: More importantly I remind them that Galileo, in today's environment, would be outcast .... If you had evidence, as Galileo did, you would have a ready audience. Bulldog: and treated as poorly as he was during his own era Galileo was brought before the Inquisition, forced to recant and admit to religious heresy, then imprisoned for life. The worst that happens to climate skeptics is they get laughed at. There is ample funding for skeptical climate science, they just don't have the evidence. Bulldog: I use data mining in my business. There is no truth in data mining, Again, that is incorrect. Some fields generate huge reservoirs of data, such as in astronomy and genomics, and it requires data mining to find the relevant patterns. If these patterns generate testable hypotheses, then it is scientific. That doesn't mean data mining can't be used incorrectly, or even fraudulently. Bogus research is common. Look at this. Remember the old joke, if you torture the data enough it will confess.
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0020124 Dr. Joy Bliss: 1. Careerism and greed - there is big money to be made in science these days, especially if you come up with the "right" results
People have often touted 'scientific' marvels of various sorts, especially in medicine. Dr. Joy Bliss: 2. The use of computers for data-mining - which is not the scientific method Data-mining certainly can be scientific. It's a process of detecting patterns in large quantities of data, and is essential in many fields. However, like any method, it can be abused. Dr. Joy Bliss: 3. The reluctance of journals to publish negative results in favor of positive results They never report the houses that don't burn down. Dr. Joy Bliss: 4. The lack of scientific literacy in journalism Two-sides to every story. Tonight! A debate on whether the Earth is flat or round! Dr. Joy Bliss: 5. The impression that scientists often have an ax to grind and cannot be impartial about their pet ideas Nothing new there. Dr. Joy Bliss: 3. The reluctance of journals to publish negative results in favor of positive results
"They never report the houses that don't burn down." Albert Michelson and Edward Morley might choose to disagree (Am JoS 34, 333, 1887. Heh. Good example, though Dr. Joy Bliss was probably referring to null results, those that don't confirm the hypothesis, rather than outright falsifications, which are always interesting.
Some things never change.
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/04/04/457312/anti-evolution-monkey-bill-poised-to-become-law-in-tennessee/ re There are a number of reasons it makes good sense to be always skeptical of scientific claims (as scientists are trained to be). Here are a few:
1. Careerism and greed - there is big money to be made in science these days, especially if you come up with the "right" results 2. The use of computers for data-mining - which is not the scientific method 3. The reluctance of journals to publish negative results in favor of positive results 4. The lack of scientific literacy in journalism 5. The impression that scientists often have an ax to grind and cannot be impartial about their pet ideas All excellent points, Doc. I will add a sixth reason to be skeptical. When someone invents a "fact" and then builds an experiment to "prove' it. Or someone who, rather than arguing against the opposing points which are made, belittles and demeans them using tangential information, attempting to turn their views into comedy.
Happens regularly. In an attempt to avoid a direct discussion, it's easier to personalize, deflect, trivialize and get others to laugh or sneer. This makes the opposition seem less 'well informed', even if they are better informed. Bulldog: Or someone who, rather than arguing against the opposing points which are made, belittles and demeans them using tangential information, attempting to turn their views into comedy.
Seriously? That wasn't our intent, certainly. Well, we do apologize. Our points stand, though. |