We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Friday, November 4. 2011
Image above via Coyote
Via Insty, Shotgun choices for defence
Also via Insty: Have you considered the myriad difficulties associated with carrying concealed while shopping? Here are some great ways to overcome those issues.
I think I am
Too much time spent sitting increases the risk of developing cancer, even for those who exercise regularly
California's high-speed train wreck
When cleaning crews "mistake" art for garbage
George Will: Conformity for diversity’s sake
To the disbelief of left-wing media, most Britons want a referendum on EU membership.
Shiffren at NRO:
President Obama’s Super PAC “Priorities USA” Launches Another Round of Attacks on Mitt Romney
Obama Goes Negative with Stealth Attacks
What’s the Matter with Ohio? - It may fail to pass union reforms that a majority of voters support
Hawaii State Liabilities Climb by 60 Percent in Two Years; Expert Calls the News 'Shocking'
TVA employees balk at Obama plan to pay for pension benefits
Tracked: Nov 04, 07:18
Tracked: Nov 06, 05:15
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There are 12 equally possible outcomes. There are 4 outcomes that are potentially correct. Therefore the answer is 4/12 or 1/3 i.e. 33-1/3%
When cleaning crews "mistake" art for garbage
Well, as the misquoted cliche goes, one man's trash is another man's artwork. And as the article points out, it happens quite often. I quit doing "modern" art shows because most of what I saw looked like floor sweepings and random junk picked from my garage.... which reminds me, I really need to get motivated and throw out that trash.
Well, stop your cleaning every once in a while to check on the pile. You wouldn't want to miss the "art" that could appear spontaneously as you pile up your junk.
Who better to determine that something is "an unsightly mess" than a cleaning crew? And it is, after all, their job to remove such.
When did that which clearly qualifies as an "unsightly mess" become valuable? Who assigned value to it?
The photo of the probability problem is an example of Russell's Paradox or at least a very close relative. There is, and cannot be, a correct answer so the clever student will choose not to answer.
Given a set of 4 possible answers, presuming the correct answer is part of the set, the probability of selecting the correct answer at random is 0.25 (25%). But 2 of the 4 answers in the set are 25%, therefore the probability of selecting the correct answer at random is 0.50 (50%). That is answer B. But the probability of selecting B at random is 25%. Therefore B cannot be the correct answer.
So the answer, 0%, is not a member of the set of selectable answers.
I agree -- there is zero chance you will pick the right answer if you're confined to those four alternatives, and zero is not one of the answers.
In other words, though there's a 25% chance you'll pick 50% and a 50% chance you'll pick 25%, there is no choice whose likelihood matches the percentage probability described in the choice itself. So none of the answers is correct.
In regards to the Cain 'scandal':
What we know so far is little more than vague gossip. There could be heat, there may be smoke and, if they keep fanning, there could be flames. But one thing is certain, there are a lot of Democrats and Republicans, MSM and Bloggers, who really, really are excited about the possibility of watching Herman Cain burn.
The Ruling Class must be afraid of Cain. They keep telling us he is such a nice man, but unqualified for this important job. They do not tell us who is qualified. That would make it too obvious that they believe they are our lords, and we must continue in servitude to the bi-factional ruling party.
I do away with the assumption the answer to the probability question is in the distractors. I would say the question would be better posed with bags of balls.
There are 3 distinct outcomes:
(A OR D) AND !B AND !C OR
B AND !C AND !(A OR D) OR
C AND !(A OR D) AND !B
the probability of any given outcome is 1/4 and !outcome is 3/4. In the case of A OR D this yields 1/2 and !(A OR D) is 1-1/2 = 1/2.
Replace OR with a + and AND with a and then fill in the numbers:
(1/4 + 1/4) 3/4 3/4 +
1/4 3/4 (1-(1/4 + 1/4)) +
1/4 (1-(1/4+1/4)) * 3/4
9/32 + 3/16*1/2 + 1/8*3/4 = 9/32 + 3/32 + 3/32 = 15/32, which is about 48%.
Many forget with multiple outcomes you have to account for the likelihood of the other outcomes not happening. In a number of cases the probability of the non-occurring results will wash out, but not always.
Two bags, one filled with uniform distributions of red, green, and blue balls the other bag with 2 red balls, one green, and one blue ball. A ball is drawn from the first bag and then another ball is drawn from the second bag. What is the probability the balls match?
You may prefer a "better" question but we have the question we have. You may not change the set of possible answers. You may, however, choose not to answer the question.
All I've seen is the image, I have not seen anywhere stating the answer to the question is one of the distractors, in fact, while following the links I find I am not alone is not assuming the answer to the probability is in the distractor. I am not choosing a better question, I am rephrasing.
I have also yet to see any answer that goes much beyond fuzzy thinking. I've seen some people applying math to their thinking, but I claim most of that is incorrect.
In fact, that may be the whole point of the question -- getting people to think the answer to the probability question is one of the distractors.
I will rephrase from "better question" to "better phrasing of the question".
Oh, and yes, I am smart enough to know how stupid I am. Ergo the moniker. I cannot escape what I am, so I go with the flow.
--the Popeye Dictum. "I yam what I yam becuz I yam!"
Spinach si, spin no
That Swedish reassessment article was excellent. I will be using it at my site, with commentary.
As to the chalkboard question, Knucklehead is correct, and Russell's Paradox is a closer fit than the Liar's Paradox.
Interesting - a great example of Epimenides Paradox. And like Epimenides Paradox, it has a flaw.
The correct answer my friends is B. 60% is the distractor as it is not possible. Two 25% answers are co-equal therefore invalid and cancel each other leaving only a choice between 25% and 50%. That is a 50/50 proposition. That leaves 50% as the correct answer.
It is a great example of Perturbation Theory - the small term being the 60%.
At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it. :>)
"carrying concealed while shopping?"
I've worn an ankle holster for years and wouldn't even think about changing it out. I feel nekkid without it.
Are You Smart Enough to Know You’re Stupid?
Damn straight. I ain't the brightest bulb in the box and I'm the first to admit it.
They have been paying people to protest
And for people to lead the protests. Their called "community organizers" I believe.
Fannie & Freddie Dish Out Fat Bonuses
Is Barney's boyfriend still large and in charge there?