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Monday, November 5. 2012
I also asked you to weigh in on local & state races, so a few of the predictions are only in regards to that. Lengthier replies have been reduced to their summation.
And this is ongoing until Tuesday. Slap your guess in the comments and I'll add it to the list so that you, too, can be publicly mocked, scorned and degraded for the rest of your life should Obama win in a landslide. After the final election results are in, I'll do another post and announce the no-doubt embarrassed winner. The prize will be they get to write an article on any subject they like, which I'll then post here for possibly even more mockification, scornalization and degradationalism.
While I expect it to be decisively in Romney's favor, I think there will enough Democratic shenanigans going on to keep it from being a 'landslide'. I'm thinking 50% Romney, 48% Obama, with the usual couple of percent devoted to write-ins. Electoral votes-wise, I'm putting it in the 'barely squeaks by' column. — me
Romney 51% Obama 49% — Lady Tex
315/223 — Pajak
42% of the vote going to O, rest of the vote to R— BillH
I predict Colorado will go for Romney. — Colorado
I predict an old fashioned thumping, with Romney topping 400 Electoral Votes. — Tom Armstrong
My hunch is that Romney wins big time and captures a huge majority of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. — Tom Francis
Romney 53 - Obama 47, Pubbies get the Senate but only 51-49. Pubbies gain +2 in the House. Waxman gets axed in CA! — Bob in VA
Obama gets his ass kicked up around his collar bone. Romney wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and my beloved New Hampshire. Oh yeah, Virginia and Florida too. Not quite 1984, but it is gonna be a rough one for the Dems. — Anthony L.
I predict Romney 53% - Obama 46% - 330 EC votes for Mitt. Senate 52 Republicans - 48 Democrats. +3 for the GOP in the House. — altered states
My prediction is that though Romney may have the majority of popular vote nationwide and enough support in the battleground States to win close fights and their electoral votes, I don't think he has enough of a margin to overcome the Democratic cheating and outright theft I've seen too many times to forget. — John
I think Romney will get it but will be a Pyrrhic victory. — chasmatic
Romney 52%, 0bama 47% — Vichris
Romney - 322, Obama - 216 — Chuckles
Romney landslide to a degree that surprises just about everybody. — ahem
I'll go with R 315, O 223 (a la Barone) -- but I say this more in hope than in confidence. — Texan99
...picked R 319 many months back. — Texan99's husband
Election is close…and it comes down to enthusiastic R voters vs D fraud. I think the D fraud loses…this time. — Daedalus Mugged
270-268 Romney - NH, VA, NC, FL, & OH puts him over the top. — Dave
ROMNEY 52% - OBAMA 47%, ROMNEY 341 - OBAMA 214 — Gnome Number 5
Obama by miles. — thehawkreturns
It would be fun to join the Romneyfest here but I checked Intrade today to read the internet's tea leaves. It doesn't look like good news for Team Red, at least as far as the presidential election goes. Intrade doesn't always get it right, of course. But I believe it's right more often than not. — jhc
While that last one isn't an official 'prediction', we now have four presidential elections under our belt since the Internet Age began, so it's interesting to see who's starting to emerge as the predictive leader.
On the subject:
So we've got that going for us.
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"...they get to write an article on any subject they like, which I'll then post here for further mockification, scornalization and degradationalism....." With friends like you, who needs enemies?
Precisely! When Maggie's advertises itself as "the full-service blog site", they ain't kiddin'!
I'll go with R 315, O 223 (a la Barone) -- but I say this more in hope than in confidence.
My husband picked R 319 many months back. He doesn't have the jitters the way I do.
Premise: Polls are weak (91% non response rate, assumption that the 9% that answer represent the 91% that don't is wrong). They under count R’s (D+double digit samples) and D fraud, weak LV screen overcounts D support compared to lack of enthusiasm.
Prediction: D’s win where they thought they needed to (where the fraud is ramped up) and where the fraud machine is strong (PA). R’s win where actual votes can put it outside the margin of fraud and where the major metro areas have enough of an R presence to keep fraud to managable levels.
Romney gets ~273-265 electoral victory. R gets FL, NC, VA, CO IA and WI. O gets OH, PA, MI, NV, MN.�
Romney may pick a few electoral votes out of NH or Maine, but doesn’t need them.�
O gets OH, still loses, but barely. PA by actual voters for Romney, but Philly fraud keeps the electoral college votes blue (PA ex philly goes Romney by ~430k votes, Philly provides that plus 15k votes, regardless of what the rest of state margin is) . MI is closer than many think, and ‘strong Detroit turnout’ (ie some transplanted Philly/Chicago fraud, such as unmonitered precints voting anyone who did not show up for O) keeps it blue. Strong union ‘turnout’ in Las Vegas keeps NV blue. OH has some late reporting blue districts that miraculously provide just enough margin to win (alternative…OH too close to call, recounts until the Dems win and then it stops).
WI goes Red, as the recall kept the R machinery oiled. FL NC IA and VA go red because the cities are not big enough nor blue enough to sustain the needed margin of fraud. CO has enough red in Denver to keep the fraud inside the margin of victory, but it is a close run thing.
Election is close…and it comes down to enthusiastic R voters vs D fraud. I think the D fraud loses…this time.
Another prediction: Romney wins 2012, loses 2016. Without the ‘crawl over broken glass to vote against O’ vote, the fraud wins next time.
Given the culture of dependency and fraud, D’s win 2016 unless the R voters are highly motivated, and win independents. The next 4 years will be somewhere between very rough and gawd awful. 2016 will be another change election. Romney will either make some very unpopular moves, or be very ineffective. D’s (whoever that is other than Biden, he is just too stupid to be elected) will win. And by much more than Romney this time.
ROMNEY 52% - OBAMA 47%
ROMNEY 341 - OBAMA 214
God made pollsters so that astrologers would look more accurate.
Obama by miles.
Do you guy's understand your own voting system?
The States is packed with welfare bludgers and illegals. You havn't got a hope.
Doc, Intrade has been in something of a skid lately. Some structural issues beggared trade volume enough that the wise guys were able to move in and skew the price signals. It's all right here in a couple of chicagoboyszs daily entrys mostly by Subotai Bahadur --who's been a fixture for years at PJM and is as straight-shooting a feller as there is.
Knowing the Axelrod operation has been trying to finesse multiple wall street voices, and knowing the volume has been rock-bottom on the election trading, it's easy to suspect market manipulation is afoot at Intrade.
Anyhoo, read Subotai:
PS, if you've missed the train on the possible new Intrade paradigm, you are not alone --several FoxBiz bigwigs are still today making a big deal out of the Intrade data.
"are still today making a big deal out of the Intrade data."
Or maybe not for long, if you-know-what happens.
Thanks for the update.
(Post election update)
I was wrong. I expected the polls to be unrepresentative, but somehow (somehwere between pollster skill and luck) the 9% who answered the polls were representative of the 91% who did not. In the aggregate, there was not a material sample bias. Polls said D+6, and it was D+6.
I also over estimated the R enthusiasm, and even more so the non-existant enthusiasm gap. Same R's turned out than for Romney as for McCain, and even fewer than for Bush '04. Obama successfully conducted a negative campaign that depressed marginal voter turn out, and he could rely on his base showing up. Romney played for the middle, and the middle didn't bother showing up, likely because of all the 'negativity'
I am disappointed, but from this libertarianish perspective it was a choice between bad and worse. Between forlorn hope and no hope.
This election was/should have been really about Obamacare. It could have been repealed this cycle, but by next cycle it will be in place and too late. Once in place, voters will never turn back. Once the existing healthcare system is destroyed, there is no ability to 'go back.' Obamacare will not work particularly well, and all future elections will be about who can promise more resources to 'fix it'. All future elections will be about who will promise more free stuff 'other people' pay for. It is a bad day for liberty...liberty cannot compete in that electoral landscape.
I am still amazed at the coincidence (?) of the Republicans nominating the one person out of 330mm Americans who could not effectively attack Obamacare. The one candidate who could not make the election be about what it really should have been about. Freedom dies with a wimper.
Nicely summed. I've been looking for a title for today's election post. Think I just found one.