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Saturday, November 3. 2012
Since Monday will be our last chance to either (1) sound incredibly precognitive or (2) look like complete bozos, I'm inviting you, the Maggie's Valued Readers™, to publicly have a say. Along with my article, I'll also post an article with any predictions you leave here in the comments.
My only request is that you put your official prediction in quotes, to differentiate it from anything else in the comment you'd care to blather on about. If no quotes are used, I'll post the whole thing. Management reserves the right to correct any blatant typos. I'll collate them Sunday evening.
There are actually a handful of predictions in play. In regards to the presidential race, you could predict the outcome by states, by Electoral votes, or just wimp out and resort to safe phrases like "landslide" or "barely squeak by".
There's also the question of the congressional races, both locally and in Washington. We presume we'll keep the House, but the pundits say we won't have enough to take back the Senate. Is this true? Could the much-anticipated October Surprise turn into a November surprise?
Do you remember what happened in 2010?
Then there's the side issue of Obama's so-called 'firewall' states; states that are so heavily 'blue' that there's no sense even campaigning there. Or is there? Are Pennsylvania (Obama 54% in 2008), Michigan (57%) and Minnesota (54%) actually in play? We'll discount California (60%) and New York (62%) outright, but it all adds up.
And then there's my current home state of Florida. While Ohio has gotten the most press as the official 'swing state' this time around, of the four states with the most Electoral votes, Florida is the only one in play. It was 50.9% for Obama in 2008 compared to McCain's 48.4%, which is damn close. The fourth state is Texas, which went 55.5% for McCain, so we'll figure that one's already in our column. Florida will be the one to watch this Tuesday.
So have it, Maggie's Valued Readers™. This could be your 15 minutes! I've seen some fairly opinionated, vociferous comments in Bruce's and my political posts, so here's your chance to prove to everybody how right you were.
Your predictions, please!
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I predict the write-in vote for both Sarah Palin and Ron Paul will so far surpass the votes for Obama and Romney that Sarah will be declared the new prez and Ron the VP.
Of course, I could be wrong.
As you know, I don't have a "dog" in this race. I see "a Romney win that will probably be close" but the rumblings I'm starting to sense could indicate a "mini-landslide".
Your Northern Neighbo(u)r.
I read that this morning. I was a little disappointed he barely mentioned 2010, but was happy to see him giving Florida to Romney, and, of the three smaller states I mentioned above, he gave Pennsylvania to Romney.
I'll put you down for "Beats handily". :)
The 3% LGBT, plus the 19% women having abortion as their #1 issue, plus the 13% of the labor force that is unionized, plus the 12% Black, plus 5% fraud, minus 15% for overlap and the occasional republican in those groups, for a total 42% of the vote going to O (if I did the math right). The rest of the vote goes to R., for the greatest landslide in history. (You can't argue with scientific precision.)
I predict Colorado will go for Romney. His rallies here have been larger than Obama's. Obama's signs and bumper stickers are way down over his last election, even in highly Democratic neighborhoods in Denver. Prius's come with a factory attached bumper sticker, so those don't count. People my age are predictably voting for Romney but those my son's age, who used to be rabid Obama fans, are not even interested enough to vote this time around. I've heard that many times... We'll see.
I predict an old fashioned thumping, with Romney topping 400 Electoral Votes.
Shit! The highest I've seen from even the most optimistic of pundits is something like 328. We'll see!
No sooner did I read your comment than I blundered across this. Backed up your feeling all the way. Good observation on your part.
"I predict that on November 6th, 2012 that the sun will rise in the East and set in the West. There will be varying types of climate across the US including wind, rain, snow and varying temperatures. Citizens will attend to their civic duty by voting for one candidate or the other. There will be a winner and a loser. Babies will be born, others will pass from this mortal coil to whatever post life they believe in."
"There's only two ways this could go - Romney in a landslide victory or Romney in a squeaker. My hunch is that Romney wins big time and captures a huge majority of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. In either case, we won't know on November 7th who won - there will be challenges to the vote, Democrats will pull out all the stops for recounts and challenges and I predict that the election will end up in the Supreme Court once more."
I came up with 401 on the RealClearPolitics map thingy; 395 if Obama hangs onto Nevada. Senate balance remains 53-47, but parties switch. A thumping.
If Romney loses, I'll wonder where America's collective head is at.
Romney 53 - Obama 47, Pubbies get the Senate but only 51-49. Pubbies gain +2 in the House. Waxman gets axed in CA!
Living in Brookline MA, I'm voting for four great men: Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan, Scott Brown and Sean Bielat. In 64 years I don't think I've ever enjoyed voting this much.
Anecdotally, there is no energy or enthusiasm for Obama in my circles. They're all leftDems and they all gushed over the Bam in 2008. This year it's as though the election isn't even happening.
I'd say that's a good sign.
Obama gets his ass kicked up around his collar bone. Romney wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and my beloved New Hampshire. Oh yeah, Virginia and Florida too. Not quite 1984, but it is gonna be a rough one for the Dems.
What will really cause a tingle up my leg, however, is seeing the corrupt buffoon Harry Reid having to relenquish the Senate Majority leader role.
Regardless of who wins the election, on Wednesday morning about half of the country will breath a sigh of relief while the other half will be wondering how any thinking person could vote for the bozo who won.
I hope to be among those sighing after a Romney/Ryan victory.
Agree with Gina. No enthusiasm among the libs that I know. I tried to make some wagers with Obama supporters - couldn't get anybody to put down a bet. A good sign, indeed.
"I predict Romney 53 - Obama 46 - 330 EC votes for Mitt. Senate 52 Republicans - 48 Democrats. +3 for the GOP in the House. "
From my lips to God's ears.
My prediction is that though Romney may have the majority of popular vote nationwide and enough support in the battleground States to win close fights and their electoral votes, I don't think he has enough of a margin to overcome the Democratic cheating and outright theft I've seen to many times to forget.
Romney will see the Presidency stolen out from under his grasp and then we will see. . . . we will see.
My attitude may be influenced by residing in MA, where if the USA ever gets a enema is where they will stick the tube.
Lose-lose whoever gets elected
Romney/Obama wins by small but definite margin;
Returns challenged all over the place, dog & pony show;
Unrest leads to riots, LE and Mil called in, which only adds fuel;
Reaction to rioters, situation gets hot, lines will be drawn based on race; veneers drop. (Dogs bark, birds fly, people hate. You expect any different? Really?)
Martial Law a likely option, UN will meddle;
President-elect is scapegoat of the year;
I think Romney will get it but will be a Pyrrhic victory. One way or the other gonna need them beans 'n' bullets 'n' bibles.
The Last Post...
My state (NM) will go for Obama,....it's embarrassing to look at a map and see NM glaringly blue in a sea of red. Gary Johnson will steal votes from both partys here, but more from Romney. Sigh....We need better conservatives in our state. With all of that said I see a country longing for competancy and some common sense leadership. "Romney 52 0bama 47"
It would be fun to join the Romneyfest here but I checked Intrade today to read the internet's tea leaves.
It doesn't look like good news for Team Red, at least as far as the presidential election goes.
Intrade doesn't always get it right, of course. But I believe it's right more often than not.
And it has begun...
Romney landslide to a degree that surprises just about everybody.