We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Good grief. 44% of NY residents support these smelly low-life losers, bums, perverts, slackers, paranoids, anthropology majors, commie wannabes, community organizers, and potheads? I don't believe it.
An RCT is a "randomized controlled clinical trial."
We have discussed the scientific fallacy of "data mining" here in the past in which, instead of testing an hypothesis (aka the Scientific Method), the researcher simply asks the computer to find any correlations in the mountain of collected data. That is not science. This is typically done when a researcher has a mound of data which did not support his hypothesis. So as not to waste it, he asks the computer to find something else in it.
In any mountain of data, some correlations can be found if only by laws of randomness - see the legal hoax of so-called Cancer Clusters.
Often enough, when you read "Study says...", you are reading a report from data mining. Our readers know that a statistical correlation often - or usually - means nothing, but data-mining "information" is non-information. Generally speaking, newspaper reporters never passed Statistics 101. (I did, but found stats difficult to explain to innumerate juries who even get confused by basic algebra.)
Even medical professionals get taken by this growing technique. It's most common when secondary studies use the database from participants in a randomized controlled trial to look for correlations not to scientifically test a hypothesis, let alone one the original trial had been designed to fairly test. Carefully controlled clinical trials are concerned with causes and effective treatments. In contrast, multivariate analyses of large databases, with their statistical manipulations and regression computer modeling, are statistics. Statistics is about correlations. It's not biological research.
It's close to being the perfect food, containing pretty much all you need to survive. How the Potato Changed the World - Brought to Europe from the New World by Spanish explorers, the lowly potato gave rise to modern industrial agriculture.
What is "lowly" about the sacred Mashed Potato? asks I. We only grow the pre-mashed varieties at my house, genetically-modified to contain the butter, salt, and cream genes.
The premium varieties of potato, of course, come with a thick rare rib-eye on the side.
(It's remarkable to consider all of the things from the New World which changed the Old World: corn - maize, potato, tomato, syphilis, squash, etc.)
For those of you who, like me, are regular viewers of Newsbusters' Newsbusted videos (examples here) here's the Israeli counterpart, Tribal Update. Not as brief as Newsbusted, but as funny in poking holes in Israel leftist pretensions.
Buckley, If Not God, Returns to Yale-What the late, great controversialist would have said to Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and today's conservative talking heads.
The newly formed Spokes Council claims to adhere to the “statement of principles” adopted by the New York City General Assembly, including “direct-democracy, non-hierarchy, participation, and inclusion.” The Spokes Council differs from the NYC-GA, however, in three main respects: the Spokes Council has the power to exclude new groups that don’t receive a 90% majority vote for admission; in the NYC-GA, everybody technically has the right to speak, whereas in the Spokes Council each Working Group has a spokesperson, who can be recalled only by a 90% majority; and the NYC-GA allows one vote per person, whereas the Spokes Council operates more indirectly, granting each Working Group one vote.
When I pointed out the contradictions these differences present to the Council’s stated principles, the leaders of Sunday’s teach-in insisted that the Spokes Council was the most participatory, democratic organization possible—the same slogan they repeated last month about the General Assembly. I felt like I was watching a local production of Animal Farm.
"I think I have an ongoing conversation with God. Throughout the day I'm constantly asking myself questions about what I'm doing, why I am doing it." --Barack Obama
Confusing an inner dialogue with speaking with God is never a wise plan
Today it's a powerful and majestic predator, which comes to mind because our friends who cover hawk migration in New Haven, CT, have seen a few of them passing through recently.
Lucky them. I have never seen a Golden Eagle in the Eastern US, but have seen them in the West, where they are not uncommon. Medium-sized mammals are their main prey, and the wide, open spaces are their dominion.
Picture by J. J. Audubon, as can be easily recognized by the awkward and un-lifelike pose of the animal. Audubon typically painted from dead specimens - he was a famous shot with a rifle, and he liked to get a good, close look at the animal he was painting.
If you haven't seen the movie Moneyball, then do. Jason and I had our Little League schedule interrupted by a rare rain in San Diego, so we went to see the film. It will rank as one of the top baseball films ever, the acting by Brad Pitt and all others excellent.
But, the movie is about much more than baseball, as is baseball itself. Jason and I discussed its lessons after, about deportment and courage in leadership, about relations among management and players in tough situations or conflict, about the practical uses of education, and so on.
One of the lessons isn't in the movie. The judo use of statistics by a team, the Oakland Athletics, far outspent by such rich teams as the Yankees, to find undervalued players was successful but once the success is shown, other teams adopted it. The niche was lost as many exploited it, which reduced its power by any one team. The traditional "art" of experience returned to the fore but adjusted by this innovation. That is, in a nutshell, the path of innovation, useful improvements that energize competition and up the play to everyone's benefit.
The US District judge who presided over the trial of of the "blind sheik" in 1995, later appointed the US Attorney General, Michael Mukasey, spoke at Hillsdale College's Constitution Day on September 15 about the Constitution in wartime and the legal challenges it faces. The speech is here.
Mukasey begins, "President Obama campaigned for office largely on the claim that his predecessor had shredded the Constitution. By the Constitution, he could not have meant the document signed on September 17, 1787. Article II of that document begins with a simple declaration: “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.” Not “some” or “most” or even “all but a teeny-weeny bit” of the executive power. The President is vested with all of it." Mukasey addresses the Bill of Rights, and in between discussing Article II and the first ten amendments discusses US intelligence and prosecutions of Islamist terrorists.
It would be hard to find a better summary of the issues. That's the calibre found in the monthly Imprimis which Hillsdale College mails to over 2-million subscribers. If you want your copy, and promise to read it and not waste Hillsdale's postage, you too can subscribe at the above link to Mukasey's speech. The subscription is free but the charge is to pay attention and be informed. Intelligence is our first line of defense in all matters.
Seabourn Cruises. Nice vacation ideas, and less costly than you might think. Ships are cool, and smaller ones are more cool. In our humble view, the modern mega-ships are horrible. You might as well be on land, and they do not rock 'n roll in storms. If you cannot feel the sea, what's the point?
The next great realignment in American politics is very likely to be a Democratic realignment. It cannot be a Republican realignment, because the GOP has moved so far to the extreme right that it is now far outside the mainstream of American opinion.
I don't know. Many Americans talk conservative, but love their freebies.
NYT: Bleak Portrait of American Poverty Is Off the Mark, Experts Say
Poverty stats ignore government benefits and charitable contributions - and, of course, income from working off the books. Thanks to tax-payers, the US has eliminated serious poverty but, as a side-effect, created two generations of free-loaders. That can't be helped because any safety net also catches those sad souls who jump willingly into the net of dependency.
One The man bent over his guitar, A shearsman of sorts. The day was green. They said, "You have a blue guitar, You do not play things as they are." The man replied, "Things as they are Are changed upon the blue guitar." And they said to him, "But play, you must, A tune beyond us, yet ourselves, A tune upon the blue guitar, Of things exactly as they are."
Two I cannot bring a world quite round, Although I patch it as I can. I sing a hero's head, large eye And bearded bronze, but not a man, Although I patch him as I can And reach through him almost to man. If a serenade almost to man Is to miss, by that, things as they are, Say that it is the serenade Of a man that plays a blue guitar.
---read last two verses on continuation page below
The new World War II memorial in Washington, D.C. is not to include FDR's powerful prayer on D-Day. The WTF explanation:
But Robert Abbey, the director of the Bureau of Land Management, said any plaque or inscription of the prayer would "dilute" the memorial's central message and therefore "should not be altered."
"It is not a judgment as to the merit of this new commemoration, simply that altering the Memorial in this way, as proposed in HR 2070, will necessarily dilute this elegant memorial's central message and its ability to clearly convey that message to move, educate, and inspire its many visitors," Abbey said in written testimony.
The House is planning to vote otherwise. Will Senators, also? Will President Obama respect FDR and his betters, who recognize from where our strength comes. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, please read the prayer that expressed the faith and determination of our people, and maybe add a prayer that we will have new leadership in Washington who share that faith and determination to know and act upon right and wrong.
This is the prayer originally entitled "Let Our Hearts Be Stout" written by President Franklin D. Roosevelt as Allied troops were invading German-occupied Europe during World War II. The prayer was read to the Nation on radio on the evening of D-Day, June 6, 1944, while American, British and Canadian troops were fighting to establish five beach heads on the coast of Normandy in northern France.
The previous night, June 5th, the President had also been on the radio to announce that Allied troops had entered Rome. The spectacular news that Rome had been liberated was quickly superceded by news of the gigantic D-Day invasion which began at 6:30 a.m. on June 6th. By midnight, about 57,000 American and 75,000 British and Canadian soldiers had made it ashore, amid losses that included 2,500 killed and 8,500 wounded.
My Fellow Americans:
Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our Allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.
And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:
Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.
Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.
They will need Thy blessings. Their road will be long and hard. For the enemy is strong. He may hurl back our forces. Success may not come with rushing speed, but we shall return again and again; and we know that by Thy grace, and by the righteousness of our cause, our sons will triumph.
They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest -- until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men's souls will be shaken with the violences of war.
For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and goodwill among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.
Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.
And for us at home -- fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas, whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them -- help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.
Many people have urged that I call the nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.
Give us strength, too -- strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.
And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.
And, O Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in Thee; faith in our sons; faith in each other; faith in our united crusade. Let not the keeness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment -- let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.
With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogances. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace -- a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.
The Occupy Wall Street encampments in public spaces are a hodge-podge of activists, malcontents, crazies, homeless, and paid attendants from some leftist-directed unions and ACORN fronts.
The Occupy Wall Street encampments in major media are a coterie of self-referential, Internet connected, liberal and leftist journalists and columnists.
The incoherence of the public campers, and violence by some, is increasingly clear to the wider public. This is despite the best efforts of the other journo-campers pitching tents upon the ground of the public campers. The journo-campers excuse and avoid examination of the real facts in the parks and streets. Instead, they use it as their launch-pad to repeat their leftist defenses of the direction that President Obama has taken the US into more European style socialism, or to bemoan that he hasn’t taken us further.
That’s good for several – already too many -- news cycles, but runs up against, again, facts on the ground, the most telling being that everything President Obama has promised or done has been an abject failure, indeed too often only enriching bureaucrats and cronies on Wall Street or in industry.
The kids will mostly wake up as they grow older and gain experience. Their parents already are waking up, as exhibited in polls showing an increased tilt against the romantic facades on the public campers erected by those in the major media.
Major media has further reduced its public esteem and influence. The prospects for President Obama’s re-election are further reduced, by the journo pimps declining impact on most Americans’ opinions, and by President Obama’s own embrace of the public campers and his own shallow and strident demagoguery.
That's the title of a piece by Kling. A quote from his fascinating essay about post-industrial work:
The recent trend in job polarization raises the possibility that gains in well-being that come from productivity improvements will accrue to an economic elite. Perhaps the middle-class affluence that emerged during the latter part of the industrial age is not going to be a feature of the information age. Instead, we could be headed into an era of highly unequal economic classes. People at the bottom will have access to food, healthcare, and electronic entertainment, but the rich will live in an exclusive world of exotic homes and extravagant personal services. The most popular bands in the world will play house concerts for the rich, while everyone else can afford music downloads but no live music. In the remainder of this essay, I want to extend further this exercise in imagination and consider three possible scenarios.
The people who used to be bank tellers are not the same people who design and build ATM machines. Clerical jobs are disappearing fast. Secretarial jobs have already disappeared. Sales and service jobs are entering the maw of the internet: people buy their insurance, cars, and books online. Semi-skilled jobs are disappearing. Soon, teaching jobs will shrink with digital education. Productivity (ie, fewer employees) abounds. Outsourcing of everything, including legal work, abounds. Heck, even Wall St. jobs are disappearing. (However, there will always be work for skilled labor: carpenters, painters, electricians, plumbers, gunsmiths, firemen, masons, etc)
Kling wonders what the immediate future might hold for people who want to work, but who, despite education, lack specific skills. As I have said often here, a gentleman's liberal arts education is a wonderful thing indeed and helps produce good dinner companions but it is not work-related. It was never meant to be.
As Vanderleun guotes:
The graduate with a science degree asks, "Why does it work?" The graduate with an engineering degree asks, "How does it work?" The graduate with an accounting degree asks, "How much will it cost?" The graduate with a liberal arts degree asks, "Do you want fries with that?" -- Jane Haddam
The current market on Wall Street is driven by a number of outrageous factors. Europe and U.S. Debt, Fed Quantitative Easing, Hot IPOs, and large scale fraud are headlines each day.
Last night, an interesting IPO was priced, and it could be a bellwether, as its movement may be indicative of market conditions.
The business plan was good. This was going to be a moneymaker. The problem with the deal was optics. Rendering is a nasty business.
So are businesses with low costs of entry. One of the sure signs of bubble behavior is herd mentality that becomes contagious and self-reinforcing.
Also via Insty: Have you considered the myriad difficulties associated with carrying concealed while shopping? Here are some great ways to overcome those issues.
Cain lacks the grounding and depth needed to be president. If he is serious about wanting to be president, he should be running for the U.S. Senate, or for a governorship, to prepare, because if anything is clear right now, it’s that experience matters. (By the way, it’s interesting to see how widely Republicans are responding to his avuncular warmth; my teenage daughters just love him in the debates, probably because we usually get hard-to-love cold fish, or raffish jerks, as our candidates.) Yes, he’d be better than Barack Obama as president. Much better. And yes, it’s nice that he’s black and conservative, and all these white Republicans are embracing him. But if the GOP’s goal is to win, Cain is a distraction. At the end of the day, if he is the candidate, we lose — even if it turns out that he had no behavior, ever, which could be confused with sexual harassment.
Our contributor Gwynnie will not be seeing this sunset from his duck boat in the reeds this fall, due to (non-serious) medical repairs.
Nice weather and clear skies are terrible for duck hunting. What you want is wind and snowy sleet, because when you are uncomfortable, the ducks are too - so they fly around. Otherwise, they sit and loaf and work on their tans in huge rafts out in the middle of the lake. Photo is not the lake itself - it's a good-sized bay on the lake.
Sunset is quittin' time. When he gets back to the lodge, he would typically clean up and dress in tweeds and a bow tie, and have a couple of single malts and a Habana ceegar in front of this fireplace before dinner. And probably some ancient port and another ceegar after the pumpkin pie with Maple Syrup on top, at the evening post-prandial confab at which non-PC jokes and lies predominate. Women not allowed as guests here. Jimmy Doolittle used to sit in front of this fireplace on his duck hunting trips (It's easy to tell that I'd like to be there now):
A re-post from last December - it's not snowing here yet this year - except for last weekend -
Still snowing heavily up here. Lovely evening for a smoke or two and a Scotch or three, and, as usual in the winter, I am encountering the problem of maintaining humidification.
I generally like to keep them in the mid-high 60s, but mine keep dropping to nearer to 50% in the dry air. And yes, I do keep them well-packed with good and bad smokes of all sorts.
Here's one bit of advice on the topic but, unless you have an electronic system, I suspect you just use solid heavy wood boxes and try to do your best to smoke 'em all - and not try to save a large collection. You can always buy more.
Here's something even better:
A pal who read my piece about humidors in winter was thoughtful enough to deliver me an Opus X along with two 72% Boveda gel-packs. Those packs are news to me. He promised that putting two Boveda packs in there will get your humidor through three months in the winter up here, where our humidity can be quite low in winter. The packs don't activate until opened.
It's close to being the perfect food, containing pretty much all you need to survive.
How New York City 
powerful and majestic predator, which comes to mind 
The 
Learn How to Break Down a Door (Without Hurting Yourself)
One
Still snowing heavily up here. Lovely evening for a smoke or two and a Scotch or three, and, as usual in the winter, I am encountering the problem of maintaining humidification. 