Maggie's FarmWe are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for. |
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Friday, September 22. 2023Friday morning linksThe Two-Parent Advantage - Yes, growing up with a married mother and father gives kids a leg up in life—even more than it used to. THE DAILY CHART: WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH LIBERAL ARTS COLLEGES? All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False Devastating risks of transitioning to 'green' energy: Mining for electric-powering minerals has left 23 million people exposed to toxic waste, 500,000km of rivers polluted and 16 million acres of farmland ruined Chicago: From Stacker of Wheat to Stacker of Wheat Thins! Mayor Brandon Johnson should remember the sorry history of state-run supermarkets. Requiem for a Dying US Auto Industry Five Quick Things: Bankman. Fried. Maybe the fever of corruption and tyranny that has seized us for the past 15 years is beginning to break. TGIF: Ennui the People - Americans are tired of politics. Senators are sick of suits. Right-wingers give up on war. Rupert Murdoch passes the baton. Plus, Lauren Boebert gets felt up on Broadway. Supreme Court May Put Administrative-State On Chopping-Block In Upcoming Term, Lawyers Say Governor Greg Abbott Officially Declares INVASION at Southern Border by the Mexican Drug Cartels Biden repeats same story word-for-word just minutes apart, raising fresh concerns about age, fitness for office Poland ends arms supplies to Ukraine Jeffrey Sachs: NATO Expansion & Ukraine's Destruction Trackbacks
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...growing up with a married mother and father gives kids a leg up in life...
The next time I'm accused of white privilege I'm going to ask two questions:
" Devastating risks of transitioning to 'green' energy: Mining for electric-powering minerals has left 23 million people exposed to toxic waste, 500,000km of rivers polluted and 16 million acres of farmland ruined". They don't care as long as they can cram their ideas down our throats. Just like saving the shales until you kill them to put up those damned wind turbines and also the thousands of birds with the blades of the land turbines. Plus none of which can be recycled. They never think things through.
So, who wants to start the pool on the number of indictments related to who gets to supply the City of Chicago Supermarket with meat and produce will be issued in the next 10 years?
There is one thing that could turn this far left communist/Democrat insurrection upside down. If the Supreme Court were to decide that mail in ballots were unconstitutional. Almost all of the election fraud is based on mail in ballots. You can still cheat on elections but it can be detected and proven except with mail in ballots which are literally untraceable and unverifiable. If the court were to do this I would bet that half of the Democrats in congress would lose and we would get a Republican president.
Governor Greg Abbott Finally Officially Declares INVASION at Southern Border by the Mexican Drug Cartels
There, fixed it for you I think the Paxton impeachment backfired on the uniparty rinos in Texas and now they have to actually DO something on the border crossers or get replaced at the next election.
QUOTE: All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False . . . In order for all this attribution stuff to work the model not only has to be right, it has to be perfect. That's just silly. All models are approximations. No model is perfect. "All models are wrong, but some are useful." — George E. P. Box Unless there has been massive fraud by activists, politicians and scientists. But... what's the chance of that...
OneGuy: Unless there has been massive fraud by activists, politicians and scientists.
That's not the claim in the linked article. The claim is that models have to be perfect before any conclusions can be drawn. Newtonian Mechanics isn't perfect. The Ideal Gas Law isn't perfect. Relativity and Quantum Theory are not even compatible. Engineering is useful to everyone. Theories are not. Government financed and approved models are useful to authoritarians.
No Zac. that is not the claim in the article. Read it again, carefully. He explained his point clearly, it was a correct, well supported point. Either you missed it because of ideological blindness, or a general lack of cognitive ability, or you're being dishonest.
I'll spell it out for you. He said you can't use climate models to attribute any single or group of extreme climatological events to AGW unless the models are perfect. Because the rates of occurrence of such events between models with AGW factored in and models without AGW factored in do no diverge in their predictions sufficiently. He clearly did not say that climate models had to be perfect to be used to make "any" predictions. Do better. James: He said you can't use climate models to attribute any single or group of extreme climatological events to AGW unless the models are perfect. Because the rates of occurrence of such events between models with AGW factored in and models without AGW factored in do no diverge in their predictions sufficiently.
Even if the latter were true, the former is silly nonsense. Models only have to be sufficiently predictive to reliably predict such a divergence. This is a common misunderstanding of chaotic systems. While the long range behavior of a chaotic system is not generally predictable, the short range behavior can be predicted, and even the long range behavior may be predictable within ranges of behavior. So, while the Solar System is inherently chaotic, model calculations show that the Earth's orbit is relatively stable over many millions of years. And while weather is chaotic, that doesn't mean the temperature in Paris will vary from 0 K to 1,000,000 K. There is some evidence that tropical storms and other weather events are being affected by anthropogenic climate change, however, the evidence is not conclusive. So, while the Solar System is inherently chaotic, model calculations show that the Earth's orbit is relatively stable over many millions of years (short range, absent external perturbations). And while weather is chaotic, that doesn't mean the temperature in Paris will vary from 0 K to 1,000,000 K (long range, absent external perturbations).
#6.2.2.1.1
Zachriel
on
2023-09-23 11:42
(Reply)
Wrong again Zac. The models have to be more that accurate enough to predict a tiny divergence. The have to be good enough to make the attribution of specific events to AGW. None of the models can do that, and it is doubtful any model will ever be good enough to do that.
First rule of holes: stop digging.
#6.2.2.1.2
James
on
2023-09-23 16:04
(Reply)
James: The have to be good enough to make the attribution of specific events to AGW.
Now you got it! The models have to be "good enough" not perfect. However, in this case, it's more a matter of data. There is some evidence for a connection between extreme weather events, more so for droughts than tropical storms, but the data is not conclusive. Vicente-Serrano et al., Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environmental Research Letters, 2014. Chiang et al., Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity, Nature Communications 2021. Knutson et al., Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones, Science Brief Review 2021.
#6.2.2.1.3
Zachriel
on
2023-09-23 16:41
(Reply)
For the purposes of the issue addressed in the article, "perfect" and "good enough" are indistinguishable. You keep hiding a lack of basic understanding or competent arguments in excessive, obscure language that you've google scaped.
But "suggest" is not "proves." So at least you've finally realized you can't support your point. Even though you're committed to exhausting anyone who points that out. Once again, you've demonstrated that you don't know what you're talking about and are engaged in bad faith.
#6.2.2.1.3.1
James
on
2023-09-23 18:11
(Reply)
James: For the purposes of the issue addressed in the article, "perfect" and "good enough" are indistinguishable.
No. “Perfect” is not the same as “good enough”. If they said models have to be improved, then we would have agreed (though it’s more a matter of requiring acquiring additional data). But the claim was that models could never be good enough, because they would have to be perfect. James: So at least you've finally realized you can't support your point. This is where we point out that you are arguing with a straw man. Our point was—and is—that models don’t have to be perfect to show links between climate change and extreme weather events. It’s right there in each of our comments. There is evidence of links, such as with the citations provided above, but it is not conclusive.
#6.2.2.1.3.2
Zachriel
on
2023-09-23 20:55
(Reply)
They are useful for grifting at the taxpayer trough.
No model is perfect.
I don't know about that - what's your complaint about Kathy Ireland? Jerryskids: I don't know about that - what's your complaint about Kathy Ireland?
We stand corrected The Bankman and/or Fried family is quite something. If you've seen photos of the mother, you'd know all she's lacking is a tall, pointy hat and a cauldron. The men in the family are just her familiars.
At Fox News David Brooks complains about cost of meal.
About 80% of tab was for 'drinking'. David needs to get on a meat and taders diet instead of the liquid diet. Re: five things
The "adult" that terrified those kids needs to be removed from ever being around children. If it was my child or grandchild that was in that room the adult would be terrified for a short time. That clip was horrible, EDU liberal colleges? Lowest common denominator Marxist indoctrination centers.
Be all like so smart like they are going to like destroy the host. It's gonna work this time, the golden socialist utopia, my purple haired gender studies professor told me. The white male patriarchy is going to be replaced by the Benetton rainbow world shopping bazaar Magic Soil delusion. Hate has no place here you deplorable kulak untermenschen scum. From the illegal alien industrial complex.
QUOTE: BREAKING: NBC 5 reports that private shelter employees that house illegal immigrants make from $135 per hour up to $200 per hour. A manager of a migrant facility made $14,000 in one week and a nurse earned $20,000 in a week. https://twitter.com/ImMeme0/status/1705045191399280781 "... Lauren Boebert, a right-wing congresswoman from Colorado ... was on a date at the Beetlejuice musical when she and her male companion started getting frisky in the theater... as you sit in a dark theater, exceptional night vision cameras are pointing at you all the time. And of course the footage leaked, showing her date giving her a breast exam and showing Boebert doing something I need a straight woman to explain to me."
Well, she DOES have a nice rack! And yet, the White House security cameras can't figure out WHO left their cocaine in the foyer! Nor can the NY jail figure out WHO killed J. Epstein!!! The auto industry isn't dying. It is being murdered by people who hate the idea of YOU having personal mobility.
NOT from the Onion
EV Battery Factory Will Require So Much Energy It Needs A Coal Plant To Power It https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/09/22/ev-battery-factory-will-require-so-much-energy-it-needs-a-coal-plant-to-power-it/ IMO the plant should be powered by windmills and should only be able to produce batteries when the windmills turn. "The two-parent advantage": Very much back in the day, #2 offspring said to us after the grad ceremonies that was very grateful we'd stayed together but that would get more awards if we split.
Actually, had noticed that a couple of years previously when eldest offspring didn't get a coveted exchange scholarship - though much more qualified - because it was felt said offspring would be successful (thanks in a large part to the family) so the award was going to a lesser qualified but more "needy" candidate. I was told that by the head of the committee. Fortunately, that particular exchange scholarship had several throughout our community, so our offspring did get to go after all. Need I add that said offspring had a great year abroad and honourably represented our country. We're still together and it's much appreciated by the offsprings who see us as an example of working things out and not letting differences separate us. Not that we don't have our moments - we do - but our lives are very much intertwined despite our differences. What's the matter with liberal arts colleges? See quote from Antonio Gramsci, above.
Unfortunately Gramscian marxists have captured the high ground of the education, healthcare, and media industries, and this leads to their nearly unchallenged domination of the Federal Government, especially the illegal "fourth branch", the unelected and untouchable bureaucracy. There's a lot of work to do to reverse this, and it's going to get uglier before it gets better. |