We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Friday, November 15. 2019
Former Michigan lawmaker captures photo of 'one-in-a-million' 3-antler deer
ULTIMATE PHEASANT TACOS
Sir Rod Stewart reveals his epic model railway city
Disney Puts Warning Labels on Classic Films
‘Climate Change’ Could Cause More Winter Weather In Texas And Alabama Or Something
Climate change has replaced God as the cause of everything
"... colleges and universities have subordinated their historic mission of free inquiry to a new pursuit of social justice."
Well, also historic mission of cultural and knowledge transmission
Betsy DeVos is not backing down on proposal to rein in ‘kangaroo courts’
Education Dept. probing alleged anti-Semitism at NYU
Journalists Against Free Speech - Once unswerving defenders of the First Amendment, members of the press increasingly support restricting expression.
"Politics is the battle between these two views of the elites: the view that external forces are harmful, and the view that internal forces are harmful."
Florida Recount Finally Wraps Up, Al Gore Declared President
Billionaires Savage Elizabeth Warren Over Virtue Smoke-Signaling Campaign Ad
How did Pocahontas make $13 million?
MSNBC’s Maddow: The Impeachment Process Will Unify America…
It might unite MSNBC listeners
Adam Schiff’s Star Witness Just Admitted Burisma Should Be Investigated For Corruption
The president, not diplomats, sets 'official foreign policy'
A VULTURE CAPITALIST ENTERS THE DEMOCRATIC RACE
" Ukraine is a strategic partner of the United States, important for the security of our country."
Really? Steyn has fun with the concept
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Denies Sondland Linked Military Aid Delay to Biden Investigation
What Impeachment Really Reveals About Ukraine - Ukraine is playing footsie with China even as Adam Schiff and William Taylor depict it as a staunch American ally.
Tracked: Nov 17, 09:19
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On more winter weather in Texas: Snow and ice, even this early in the year, are not at all unusual in the Texas panhandle. To think that they are shows profound lack of knowledge about Texas geography and climate. In other words--typical elite ignorance of flyover country.
If "climate change" includes fewer 100-plus days in the summer, most of us Texans would be glad to sign on.
Amen, brother! A couple of good freezing cold snaps to kill the bugs (We Got Us Some Bugs) and some rainy days to quench the South Texas drought would be mighty welcome. Let the Global Cooling begin.
Yes, it may be counter-intuitive to conclude that warming will lead to cooling.
Mind you, I don't discount the possibility that one trend could be so destabilizing that it could result in wild gyrations and ultimately paradoxical trends. On the other hand, I'm not going to leap to that conclusion, before considering the other glaring possibility: our models are dreck, and someone is desperate to explain away the empirical data that contradict them year after year, because $$$$ and power. This exquisitely abstract possibility that somehow CO2 is going to press a lever that affects a vortex that tips this or that is a nice theory to peddle in a bar when you're try to impress undergraduates of whatever genderlike aspect you'd like to tumble into bed, but it suffers from the same problem that all new hypotheses do: we need predictions followed by confirming data (and the temporal order is important) to convert a wild surmise into a dependable natural law.
I would like for someone to provide a credible example of a successful predictive computer model for any fully chaotic system that has been used constructively in industry for decision making. As far as I know it hasn't been done with precision, even for limited scope, closed systems. The conceited, arrogant hubris of climate politicians thinking they can parlay highly-constrained, fatally-flawed computer models into the control of human endeavors is simply astounding.
I am a bit sympathetic to those who are intimidated by mathematical models. I used to have a child like faith in them myself, until I had to work in an environment where they were routinely used. They are a tool, in our case, used to design and engineer complex RF switches, switches that have multiple sensors, subassemblies, feedback loops, and whose subassemblies, in turn, have their own sensors, multiple subassemblies, and multiple feedback loops, etc. I can’t tell you how many times an ingenious, state of the art solution to a problem worked on paper and failed in the assembled product. It isn’t easy to accommodate for different materials, temperatures, pressures, energy inputs, speed, chemical environments, humidity all interacting together ………..EVEN IN A CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT, where the variables are known. I have observed how a seemingly minute change in value can cut down or be amplified as it works its way through the system, with unintended consequences (we called it a cascading effect) and vice versa. We weren't dealing with biological systems but with materials that were primarily inert and the presence of gases was minimized. It takes real hubris to insist you know what you can’t know. The difference between us and academics is that our models eventually had to consistently match, the customer’s required spec, overtime in the real world, or we didn’t get paid. In any case, it can’t be said often or emphatically enough, a model is a TOOL, not an end in itself.
A model is primarily a prediction. If it's a simple prediction, we usually don't even bother calling it a model. We use that word when the prediction is so complex it's unrealistically hard to do in one's head. But it's still a prediction, so if the empirical data that come in afterwards don't match it, the prediction's wrong. Assuming the model was constructed in good faith, that's a signal that the underlying (simplified) assumptions about the physical system were wrong, so you alter them and try again. If the process doesn't unfold this way, it's probably safe to assume the model wasn't constructed in good faith.
The computer models generally produce what the programmer wants them to produce. I always asked my client what they want the models to give them. I often weighted specific inputs to produce the desired results/bias.
"Why must parliamentary democracy protect itself from what in fact resembles the source of its legitimacy?" Derrida contemplating the logic of the vote and of public opinion.
It had some P.G. Wodehouse appeal, didn't it?
Hearings so far: pfft
It's hard for me to believe the Dems were bluffing. If.....if this was a bluff from the get go, why did the Dems call their own bluff?
They're convinced that their opponents will fold with enough screaming and accusations, and to be honest past history's shown they're right. Our 'R' political 'elite' depend on media support and thus the goodwill of the D-managed media, so they'd cave after token support.
Trump doesn't cave. That they haven't realized this YET certainly doesn't speak well for their 'elite' status, does it?
They pretended they were competent. We pretended to believe them, because we didn't have a choice. Now Trump's shown us what competence is when it comes to managing the Presidency, and it'll be hard to return to the feckless incompetent political elite again.
Bill Nye, why won't you even acknowledge your 16 year old daughter, Charity, or your former schoolteacher wife?
re Rod Stewart's model railroad
That was covered extensively several years back in a couple of issues of a model railroad hobby magazine.
I thought that with his money he would just pay professionals to build his model railroad, but I was surprised to find that Rod is a skilled modeler. He built many of the structures in hotel rooms while on tour, an impressive feat when one considers all the tools and such that must be dragged out to build the models.
If memory serves, the railroad up takes the second floor of his home. I was also somewhat surprised that Rod models American trains and not those from Great Britain.
The British hobbyists are an interesting bunch. There is a large subset of them that are fascinated with North American railroads, either because the are so much more massive than their own Stephenson Gauge sysrem, or because they grew up watching many of the same horse operas we watched in the US. One very talented friend of mine who works in V Scale, a term used by those working in simulators, readily admits to both. We've had many fascinating exchanges, particularly about railroads in the Old West.
"Imagine being convicted for drunk driving when no officer actually saw you driving drunk, there was no video of you driving drunk, there was nothing on the black box, there was no accident or damage to your car, there were no witnesses who saw you driving drunk. You were convicted just on the word of a couple of people who hated you, and claimed that they heard you had been driving drunk."
From a commenter on the Althouse blog, pass it on.
Now change all that to your property -firearms- being confiscated under red flag laws. Another very real scenario in modern day land of the free (cough cough - go read some irs forms for more examples of just how free you are) America.
And where the passenger in the vehicle is also saying "Yeah, well he wasn't drinking and he wasn't drunk" and several witnesses at the scene also say his driving wasn't erratic.
It's more like two people who hadn't actually seen you driving decided you were speeding because you were probably driving down a road at 45 miles per hour. The fact that the posited speed limit actually is 45 is immaterial, because they think it should have been reduced to 35 years ago (like it was in the good old days, when men were brave and children respected their elders).
I think it's cute how Maddow and the rest of the left thinks everything will be kumbaya, and that all will be healed, when-and-if they finally get their way. Not happening, and I hope the Republican party has learned something about asymmetrical political warfare.
Correct. They are not satisfied with victory and immediately go looking for further encroachment. I recall Rush Limbaugh pointing out the week after Obamacare was passed that liberals should be ecstatic, but seemed just as unhappy as ever.
They were last happy the day that Bill Clinton was inaugurated. They weren't happy even when Obama was, because it just bothered them that everyone else wasn't thrilled, and it harshed their mellow.